Memo: The Step Function in Retail Media

 

In 2023: TikTok, Microsoft, Amazon, Pinterest, and 7-Eleven have more in common than ever.

With the continued degradation of third-party data, we’re suddenly seeing every platform moving to eat away at Meta and Google’s second wave of digital advertising. Digital is in the midst of the third wave now, one defined by first-party data. To collect that data, it helps to own the checkout process – and this is where media and commerce are converging in 2023. In many ways, it’s linear commerce 2.0.

Retail media networks are digital advertising platforms that allow retailers to monetize their online presence by selling advertising space on their websites and mobile apps to brands and manufacturers. These networks typically use data on consumer browsing and purchasing behavior to target ads to specific audiences, and they may also provide analytics and reporting tools to help retailers and advertisers track the performance of their campaigns. The main purpose of retail media networks is to bridge the gap between brands and consumers by providing retailers with a new way to monetize their digital properties, while also providing brands and manufacturers with a new way to reach consumers.

Rather than driving online transactions with media impressions, retailers are selling media impressions driven by online transactions. It’s a high stakes game; Meta and Google (the one-time duopoly) are due to innovate in one way or another. But for now, their vulnerability seems substantial.

You’re reading about it everywhere. Retail media is the new hot topic, “crashing the duopoly” is the catch phrase of the moment. Here’s how we forecasted today’s retail media ecosystem in 2018:

All roads lead to increased ad spend for retailers with Amazon at the behest of Google and Facebook. Amazon has a distinct advantage in so much that the entire commerce workflow can happen within their walls.

  • Short term: Amazon is introducing higher-potency retargeting ad
  • Long term: Amazon will benefit from the use of less intrusive data
  • Amazon will not rely upon Google’s search data
  • Amazon has access to unique editorial content
  • Amazon has an authentic reason to hit your Inbox
  • Amazon will transcend traditional digital channels

Now, other major retailers want a part of this. And one social media company is investing heavily into building its own eCommerce operation to position itself as another facilitator of third wave advertising.

TikTok is (against the backdrop of a potential ban in the US) building up its eCommerce sales with TikTok Shop, which only recently rolled out in the US but is making big headway elsewhere in the world. Meanwhile, Amazon wants greater reach and it’s doing so by expanding Buy With Prime, the fast-shipping plugin it began testing last year that lets other merchants add Amazon Prime logistics to its checkout pages. Early response has shown impressive results.

Both are exercises in amassing all-important first-party data as the third-party data era sunsets across the internet.

Amazon and TikTok are flexing their commerce muscles while beefing up their advertising operations. Meta, once at the top of the pyramid alongside Google, has seen its advertising business plummet in the wake of a series of crackdowns by Apple on its third-party data tracking, which once was powerful enough to make or break direct-to-consumer businesses. Third-party has given way to first-party, and Meta is struggling there as well. Its Instagram Shop tab shut down as the company’s goal to make Instagram the internet’s shopping mall stuttered and then collapsed.

All eyes instead have been on TikTok. Disregard the privacy concerns and potential congressional action, for now. TikTok’s 1 billion active users are an engaged audience to product reviews and recommendations from its legion of creators, some of which fall under typical influencer-levels of fame and many who don’t. Scroll the app to see just how much commerce is embedded into TikTok’s content. In the comments of a confessional-style video about how one TikToker’s marriage ended, you might find someone sheepishly asking where the person talking bought their sweater, even though it’s far from the point of the video.

The money is flowing in. The Information published new figures on TikTok’s advertising and eCommerce operations, as well as those of Douyin, China’s TikTok, both owned by ByteDance. TikTok Shop is a success in China and Southeast Asia and there are plans in place to expand it in the US. From The Information:

TikTok’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, is making inroads in e-commerce. Consumers in China last year spent 1.41 trillion yuan, or $208 billion, buying things on ByteDance’s Douyin video app, the Chinese equivalent of TikTok, an increase of 76% from 2021, according to two people with knowledge of the internal data. Meanwhile, shoppers on TikTok in Southeast Asia more than quadrupled their spending, a metric known as gross merchandise volume, to $4.4 billion, the people said.

ByteDance generated about $60 billion in revenue in 2021, mostly from advertising, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Revenue from e-commerce is likely a fraction of ad revenue—possibly several billion dollars in 2022, as ByteDance, like other online marketplaces, gets a cut of a few percentage points of e-commerce transactions done on its apps.

These numbers show that commerce is just an engine for better advertising by way of better targeting. Even if it remains a fraction of a $60 billion advertising business, TikTok Shop is still a multibillion-dollar business. That’s valuable at a time when we’re seeing competitors falter and marketers wonder where to put their ad dollars. TikTok is still a risk in the US, but if that were to fall away, it’s the leader by far in terms of social media toolbelts. And there’s no reason to think that TikTok, with its parent company in China, would have any problems building up a significant operation in other parts of the world outside of Asia. There’s been a run of China-based eCommerce platforms that have been able to sweep other countries by offering low prices and efficient logistics operations, including Temu and Shein, and TikTok Shop is right there with them, according to SCMP.

“Good” and safe data is top of mind for all social media platforms as rules change around them.

At CES, Pinterest announced a “data clean room collaboration” with LiveRamp, a set up that’s becoming more popular for internet advertisers, reports AdAge. The partnership sees LiveRamp acting as a third-party intermediary, sharing safe, Apple-approved data on Pinterest users with external marketing partners – in the case of Pinterest, grocer Albertsons. Albertsons then uses Pinterest’s LiveRamp data to inform its marketing spend as well as its own retail media network. Similarly, Meta is working with data and insights firm IRI, which will work with brands to measure their ad performance on Facebook and Instagram.

Once powerful advertising platforms are now dealing with middlemen just to share information with their valuable advertisers. Pit that against what’s happening at TikTok and Amazon, and you see how the power dynamic has begun to shift. For Amazon, Buy With Prime is the next act to watch.

According to an article in the Seattle Times, Amazon is figuring out how to maintain dominance despite the pandemic-era boom slowing down and stagnation in Prime membership growth. The solution? Acquire more first-party data by lending out one of its most valuable properties – Prime-enabled shipping – to outside parties. It’s a win for both sides, and it seems to be working. Early adopters reported shorter shipping windows and higher checkout rates on their eCommerce sites. Amazon doesn’t have to worry about cannibalization. Now consumers can pseudo-shop with Amazon while shopping other sites; Amazon gets the transactional fees and a clean source of first-party data in response. Native transactions are now an internet-wide possibility for Amazon, giving it endless inroads to new customer acquisition and first-party data.

Where does this all lead? It’s clear who is in a better position for third wave advertising. What this means duopoly remains to be seen but it’s safe to say that the party was finally crashed. In 2018, we concluded our report on Amazon’s advertising ambitions as such:

The data derived from commerce operations is undervalued and it is our belief that data around consumer conversion will become the digital advertising standard. This will be exacerbated by the reduced efficacy of pixel and cookie tracking as privacy protections increase throughout the industry. Amazon is well positioned to disrupt the current duopoly, indirectly driving more vertical brands to do business with Amazon at multiple points of Amazon’s six point funnel.

I could not have foreseen Apple’s iOS impact on this trend, back in 2018. But it became clearer in May of 2021.

By upgrading its privacy practices, Apple will impair large ad networks that have grown with the help of those end users. This could potentially cripple Facebook’s current model with its new privacy demands. Apple has also opened the door to an unintentional adjustment to its privacy mandate. In doing so, the Mark Zuckerberg-led advertising company (and social network) will adopt a new way to accomplish its most critical objectives: revenue growth and user utility. Facebook will become an eCommerce company instead.

Except, Facebook (now Meta) focused on Web3 and the metaverse instead, starving the company of resources that it desperately needed to fortify its Instagram shopping project. Meta gave up on commerce as Amazon began to exploit its advantage in that industry. Now, every enterprise company from Microsoft to 7-Eleven wants in on retail media’s future. But it is TikTok and its linear commerce 1.0 strategy (build an audience and then establish commerce) may become the preeminent version 2.0 of linear commerce strategy (build an audience based on established commerce). It’s building its first-party data operation fast enough to establish itself as a top five advertiser. And two years ago, few of us could have imagined TikTok as an internet retailer.

The lines between media and commerce may be blurred for good. This presents a new era of arbitrage for the retailers and consumer goods willing to test the retail media waters.

By Web Smith | Edited by Hilary Milnes with art by Alex Remy

Memo: Mount Shopify

A Youtuber and his production team ventured to Antarctica with the help of a luxury expedition service, endured temperatures so “frigid” that gloves were not needed, endured those mild conditions for 50 hours, claimed it was the most physically difficult thing he’s ever done, and then planted a Shopify flag after a four hour hike to a ridge. “This is now Shopify Mountain,” proclaimed MrBeast. The sponsored video was incredibly corny and overly-dramatic but no one can claim it didn’t have the intended effect.

Previous Report: Enter MrBeast

Jimmy “MrBeast” Donaldson is a brilliant marketer, creator, businessperson, and philanthropist. And the timing couldn’t be better for Shopify. The company could use a bit of savvy marketing, value creation, new business, and a bit of charity after a difficult year. In that way (and in only that way), the partnership made sense. Donaldson spent ample time praising Shopify in the 12 minute advertisement; it has now been viewed 61 million times since its December 24th publish. To put it in perspective, this is over 1/2 of the typical Super Bowl ad viewership for what I suspect was a fraction of the cost ($7M).

In an homage to an advertiser, after a hike up a rocky crest, the team plants a flag and proclaims the virgin peak to forever be known as Mount Shopify.

But while the MrBeast storefront is a mid-eight figure property (Charm.io estimates $45 million in annual revenue), I believe that Shopify is positioning itself for a year of emergence. 2023 will be the year of enterprise-level merchant for Shopify in its attempt to better the competition (namely Salesforce’s Commerce Cloud and Adobe’s Magento properties). Once known for appealing to consumers hoping to become the next MrBeast (merchandising-wise, at least), Shopify is becoming the go-to for major retailers, marketplaces, and brands a like. Thisi Shopify’s proverbial mountain to climb.

After a year that saw the stock tumble 74%, the Shopify is due to emphasize “quality” over quantity – a descriptor that I use, loosely, to describe its growing catalogue of those prized “larger-GMV” retailers. In the past year, a number of online-first brands have left their custom carts behind for greener pastures. One example is Supreme’s shift to Shopify:

Supreme is off to a fresh start for 2023. It has just been revealed by dropsgg that the brand has changed up its online store from its previous platform to Shopify‘s eCommerce service. This switch is said to have a better bot prevention system and will begin operation next week.

Another example is ButcherBox who is rolling out its Shopify conversion page by page, leaving its custom builds for outsourced support and more advanced tools. After announcing its $600 million year in publications like TechCrunch and How I Built This, the company also (quietly) confirmed this move. From an November 2022 Shopify Masters podcast:

To this day, ButcherBox partners with third-party farms, processing facilities, cutting facilities, distribution facilities, shipping, customer service, and tech. That’s a big reason the company uses Shopify for its online store.

So when Donaldson spent so much energy turning one of his 50 hour challenges into a Shopify advertisement, I assumed that it was an attempt to raise the temperature a bit before a much larger marketing push by the company. Time will tell what that marketing push looks like. But as a standalone, the impact has been effective enough. There’s even an attempt to name a Mount Shopify in Butwal, Nepal (at least one of the images used are from Donaldson’s Antarctica trip). Entire subreddits are devoted to the appeal (or disdain) for the video – a reaction that I imagine is rare for the notably likable Donaldson.

Shopify is overdue for its return to form. The company earned a record Black Friday and Cyber Monday, propelled by that growing catalogue of enterprise retailers. This equated to a 19% increase in sales over its 2021 marks. With $619 million in operating losses over 2022 with a $1 billion commitment to build out its Shopify Fulfillment Network, capturing larger retailers and their gross merchandising value is key to profitability moving forward. This is inline with its own forecasts for 2023.

MrBeast’s Shopify-sponsored video wasn’t his best work. But at an estimated 300,000 net new subscribers per day, I am sure that his passionate fans will forgive it. As for Shopify, the sponsored video served as a reminder that it has its own unique challenges ahead. Shopify is a financial services company as much as it is an eCommerce technologies provider. As low-brow as the native advertisement was, it brought awareness to perhaps one of the more undervalued publicly-traded companies.

For Shopify it’s all about GMV. Its approach to growing its maturing revenue streams is no longer just about the smaller merchants (to which MrBeast’s audience appeals) and the subscription revenue attributed to them. More than 30% of Shopify’s revenue was subscription-driven in 2022, according to sources. But I believe that the business model is evolving. Shopify Payments charges merchants 2.4-2.9% of the transaction, Shopify Capital is growing its lending products, and the point of sale system continues to appeal to omnichannel-friendly retailers.The more larger-GMV retailers on platform, the more that will use these higher-yield financial products.

Shopify needs a collection of nine figure online retailers to turn things around and remind investors that it will remain a large contributor to the future of commerce. That’s no small mountain to climb.

Update (1/3/2023): Shopify has launched “Commerce Components by Shopify” (CCS). Targeted to enterprise retailers, the company proclaimed via press release: “Shopify enters its next era of growth: redefining enterprise retail.” The technological stack allows for Shopify’s integration within existing systems. The ButcherBox example, mentioned above, is an example of this. The majority of the food retailer’s site remains custom while the gifting process is hosted by a third-party. Shopify adds:

Commerce Components by Shopify combines the best of both worlds for enterprise retailers: access to Shopify’s foundational, high-performing components that just work—like our checkout, which converts 72% better than a typical checkout, and 91% better on mobile—plus flexible APIs to build dynamic customer experiences that integrate seamlessly with a retailer’s preferred back office services.

A list of enterprise retailers that were just announced today include: Mattel, Glossier, JB Hi-Fi, Steve Madden, Spanx, and Staples.

By Web Smith | Art by Alex Remy

Memo: Taylor Sheridan and His DTC Gamble

A former journeyman actor created one of the highest-potential modern brands and online marketplaces of today and he may not have to spend much on traditional advertising or paid marketing at all.

Taylor Sheridan, the creator of Yellowstone, created a multimedia universe like no one in or around Hollywood. With the launch of 6666steak.com (and 6666gritandglory.com), he has a new way to monetize his love for the American west. What better than steaks and beer?

Sheridan is a creative phenom by any measure. The former ‘Sons of Anarchy’ and ‘Veronica Mars’ actor set aside his “failed acting career” to focus on telling tales from the modern American frontier (as he likes to frame it) while sharing those stories through the lens of how the past meets the present. The actor became a real name in Hollywood by hastily writing the screenplay for ‘Sicario’ (2015) in just four months and then having it in production shortly thereafter. He went on to write ‘Hell or High Water’ in 2016. For the former, he earned wide critical and commercial success. For the latter, he received an Academy Award nod for best original screenplay.

Born to a Texas ranching family, Sheridan leveraged his success of his first two films and the third critical success: ‘Wind River.’ The success of the three went on to establish a deal with Paramount Networks to develop a show inspired by the culture and calling he felt closest: ranching. The script that he co-created ended up becoming ‘Yellowstone.’ Widely considered one of the most popular scripted shows, the season five premiere earned 12.1 same day million viewers. No other scripted show has earned over eight million same-day viewers, this season. Sheridan maintains a prolific pace of writing stories on death, revenge, love, grief, and envy. Somewhat Shakespearean in his pace of production and his subject matter, ‘Yellowstone’ has been referred to as “King Lear in a Stetson.”(Collider, 2022).

With Yellowstone’s critical and commercial successes has come other projects; Paramount Network greenlit ‘1883’, ‘1923’, and ‘Yellowstone: 6666.’ Each are spin-offs designed to build on Yellowstone’s success (‘1883’ and ‘1923’ are prequels to the original series). Sheridan has also written ‘Mayor of Kingstown’ and ‘Tulsa King’ as standalone stories – both maintain his go-to themes of death, revenge, love, grief, and envy. Another series based on 19th century African-American lawman Bass Reeves (1883: The Bass Reeves Story) is set to begin shooting principle photography soon.

In five short years, Sheridan has developed an unparalleled film and television media empire. Now, he’s added commerce into the fold. And as you will read, his approach is high stakes.

In a recent conversation between 2PM and a separate, American media CEO: the business leader suggested that his company could launch a new media vertical and then acquire brands that merchandised products that would appeal to the fans of the media company. He wanted to turn viewers into consumers and consumers into customers. His suggestion felt revelatory to him; though it’s been done countless times. But never quite like this. Sheridan’s DTC gamble shares the spirit of this three year old report on linear commerce like few others before it:

The lines of demarcation between media and commerce are fading. For the brands that are most suited to the modern retail economy: media and commerce operations work to optimize for audience and sales conversion. This is the efficient path for sustained growth, retention, and profitability. Brands will develop publishing as a core competency, and publishers will develop retail operations as a core competency.

In that same report, I explained how the 130 year old Michelin star system may be one of the best examples of linear commerce. The principle behind the annual, fine dining publication was that Michelin would sell more tires by giving fine dining aficionados a reason to travel to more restaurants. As the concept went: burnt rubber and memorable dining moments meant more loyalty to (and use of) the Michelin brand of tires.

Over 120 years later and we’re still buying Michelin tires (or tyres, depending on where you’re from). It’s a similar age old problem that Sheridan is seeking to address with 6666steak.com.

Sheridan’s crown jewel, ‘Yellowstone’ is in its fifth and final season. The narrative is at a crossroads with John Dutton III on the verge of losing the legacy that his five-generation ranching family built before him. The finale of the ‘1883’ prequel foreshadowed this issue. An American Indian tribal leader named Spotted Eagle agreed to allow the first-generation of the Duttons to settle on its Montana lands. Spotted Eagle noted that his people would rise up and take it back in seven generations to which the Dutton family patriarch and pioneer responded, “You can have it.”

This season of the show features many of the fifth, sixth, and seventh generations of the Dutton family. In addition to the looming 119 year old omen of loss: there is politics, and social pressures, and the usual drama found on American television. Season five introduced a new focus on the economics of cattle supply and demand. In one scene, John and his daughter, Beth, discuss the astronomical costs of moving his herd of cattle to land away from a festering brucellosis infection that seems to be spreading throughout the herd. She asks him to sell the cows and he replied that a cow is worth $1.50 per pound. His daughter scoffed:

A good steak, she points out, can go for $30. Hamburger is, at worst, $5 a pound. Why is the ranch getting garbage money for its cattle when there’s money to be made in beef?

John replied that he “sells cattle, not beef.” And goes on to explain that his model has worked for over 100 years. In the final season of television’s most popular show, one that will end with a major change, the business of cattle is the focus. Sheridan is intentional about exploring whether or not the Dutton operation can modernize enough to survive in a different (um…DTC) form. According to Beth, maximizing profitability in the cattle ranching industry means going vertical and selling the product of cattle and not just the animals themselves. The lucrative products: loin, rib, brisket, and flank cuts are far more valuable to consumers than the whole of the cattle themselves.

Source: MTV Studios

For fans of Sheridan’s work, this scene was meta at best and cringe at worst. It was native advertising but it broke the fourth wall in a way that was abrupt and desperate. But the advertising worked and here I am writing about an online retail operation that I have watched over recent months. The episode made it clear that Four Sixes Reserve Steak wasn’t an offshoot of the 6666 Ranch business, it was the future of the ranch (and quickly earning Sheridan a return on investment). Beth was intentional in handing over the Macbook Pro screen with the example of going direct on it. It was the direct-to-consumer steak retailer of the ranch that Sheridan finalized the purchase of in early 2022:

The legendary Four Sixes Ranch (often written as the 6666 Ranch) was recently sold for just under $200 million to a group that’s believed to be led by Yellowstone creator Taylor Sheridan. Initial listings show that the owners sought more than $340 million for the 143,000-acre property.

With the acquisition of 6666 Ranch, Sheridan acquired three assets at once: the credibility that comes along with owning a 150 year old Texas ranch, a set for filming shows and movies that require expansive horizons and prairie lands, and a larger canvas upon which to use his vast, creative influence. The closing episodes of the show’s final season will be focused on moving Yellowstone from an aging model to a modern one. While in real life, Sheridan and his team of investors are doing the same for the legendary and historic ranch that he now owns. Yellowstone’s 60 second native advertisement was Sheridan’s first attempt at getting the word out at scale.

The Four Sixes Ranch isn’t Sheridan’s first rodeo (he’s an accomplished horse breeder) but the bet he’s making with this integration between art and retail is one with countless implications. Sheridan is going all in on the cattle raising and marketing business at a time when the industry is rife with turmoil between suppliers, packers, and their consumers.

The Academy Award-nominated writer will be joining NCBA as the keynote speaker for the 2023 Cattle Industry Convention and Trade Show’s opening session. The NCBA is “the voice of U.S. Cattlemen and Women.” Sheridan will be the rare celebrity that walks the convention’s halls but he will be a welcomed presence and his positioning with Four Sixes Reserve means he’s also an advocate for cattlemen of large and small ranches. No one in modern media has shed more light on the culture of ranchers and the “modern west” as Sheridan has. He’s glamorized the industry while casting a bright light on its struggles and sorrows. Sheridan has spent seven years building the credibility required to stand alongside legitimate cattlemen and the organizations (like the NCBA) that advocate for them:

We sit at the intersection of all of these different takes on what to do with the spread that we’ve seen over the last couple years — the disparity between packer margins and producer margins on cattle.

Now, he will try to galvanize them around his real world plans. There is a political risk for Sheridan. At the core of the Four Ranches DTC operation is an effort to address one of the many issues tolerated by producers who drive the American-sourced beef industry. In July 2022, wholesale food distributor Sysco filed a lawsuit against the four companies responsible for processing over 80% of the domestic cattle market according to Food Business News:

Beginning as early as 2015, the meat processors “exploited their market power in this highly concentrated market by conspiring to limit the supply, and fix the prices, of beef sold to Plaintiff in the US wholesale market,” the lawsuit alleged.

JBS, Cargill, National Beef, and Tyson deny any allegations of price fixing. Sheridan’s DTC bet is larger than the traditional narrative of direct-to-consumer success or failure – in some ways, his direct-to-consumer efforts puts him in competition with the four processors. At the NCBA, Sheridan will work to rally the dozens of other cattle-producing and / or processing operations, many of whom are pursuing DTC marketing as opportunities for themselves (here is a growing list).

Sheridan is betting that his media empire and shameless (fourth-wall breaking) native advertising can help suppliers by providing them a new marketing vein to sell more of what they directly supply without the big four who own 80+% of the processing industry. The Four Sixes website all but says this is the case: “We are proud to offer the Four Sixes Ranch Brand beef, which is sourced from a network of ranches, including our own, that meet grading, marbling and tenderness qualifications.”

Sheridan’s final season of ‘Yellowstone’ will explore the business model of DTC meat. It’s likely that the ensuing spinoff ‘Yellowstone: 6666 Ranch’ will double down on the changing economics of the industry. For the first time, Sheridan will give his fans the ability to play along in the story. When Beth picked up the phone to call the merchandiser at 6666 Ranch, the gentleman mentioned “we’ve sold 8 million pounds of beef this year.” While that was likely fictional, it’s a reasonable first-year mark given Sheridan’s reach and growing popularity. At $5 – $30 per pound and 8 million units moved, that goal would make Four Sixes Reserve a serious DTC business. One of the fastest growing, ever. The kind that could save a seventh generation ranch, a fictional one or otherwise.

By Web Smith | Art by Alex Remy  

Additional reading (very fascinating): Assessing Economic Impact That Would Follow Loss of US Beef Exports and Imports