Memo: The 2021 2PM Essential Reading List

When I published this, I knew that it would be of the most tumultuous weeks in America’s recent history. As such, I decided to take a different approach to this week’s memo. Though there remains political uncertainty, there is still an opportunity to invest in foundational education. By November’s end, things will again resemble our new normal. Colleagues will return to Zoom conferences and children will finish up their fall semesters. Millions of service workers, public servants, and other essential personnel will have carried on as if America’s federal elections were any regular week.

So I chose to focus on something more foundational than the analyses of modern commerce trends, digital agglomeration, or the historical context behind the evolutions of our industries. Thanks to countless conversations with 2PM’s varied community over the past year, a number of books have been shared with or by me. The texts are diverse in their subjects, their agendas, and their authors.

Upon reviewing the 50 or so books or documents that I have read or reread in 2020, these are the 20 that made the greatest impact. I took copious notes for my own consumption. The notes allowed me to synthesize different ideas, the motivations of different people, and the durability of ideas throughout different decades. I found that the ideals were more similar than not, history often rhymed, and we have more in common than we would like to believe.

This is an eclectic list, yes, but it is a beneficial one. You may snicker at some, you may glaze over others. That’s by design; read them anyway. Learning how others understand their own worlds is a skillset that we could use a bit more of. In David Epstein’s Range, a book on the practice of generalism, he wrote:

The more varied your training is, the better able you’ll be to apply your skills flexibly to situations you haven’t seen.

Or consider this one-liner from a 2018 Harvard Business Review article:

Many studies have found that the best ideas emerge from combining insights from fields that don’t seem connected. [1]

But frankly, while there is a professional advantage to consuming this collection, most of the advantage will be more personal. Commit to reading this list and you’ll gain the advantage of context. You’ll better understand those next to you. You will be able to empathize more with those who you’ve never worked with, lived beside, or voted with. So without further adieu, here are the 20 books to read heading into 2021 and why they are relevant.

High Output Management — The walk from Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke’s office takes you down a set of stairs in the Ottawa headquarters. On the way down, you’ll pass a little bookshelf with texts that you can take, borrow, or give. I was late to reading Andrew Grove’s legendary book on management, but it’s worth it. The copy that I keep was gifted by one of the public market’s finest CEOs. The book itself is a must-read. Authored by the former chairman and CEO of Intel, the book explains a number of key management strategies, including leverage in the gathering of information, decision making, and the “nudging” of others.

Zero to One — The irony of my first visit to Silicon Valley was that it was for a launch event hosted by prolific angel investor Jason Calcanis. At the end of the event, another successful investor was signing the inside covers of his new book. Back then, I didn’t know much about Peter Thiel beyond his contributions to Paypal and his Facebook investment. But for anyone building anything, the book is a must. He’s an unparalleled thinker. One of his original thoughts continues to stand out: most people act as if there are no secrets left to find.

Shoe Dog — There are few brand founders as accomplished as Phil Knight, the man behind Nike, which now has a market capitalization of $152 billion. Shoe Dog explains how Knight accomplished what he did. By all accounts, he was a tyrant in the process. Consider this quote:

The cowards never started, the weak died along the way — that leaves us.

Knight embodied the spirit of the athletes that Nike sponsored. A ruthless leader with a work ethic that the shoe industry’s leaders, whether American or Japanese, could not account for. If Shoe Dog was foundational text, Swoosh is as well. Gifted to me by Casey Armstrong, the Chief Marketing Officer of ShipBob, this unauthorized version tells more of the story. If Shoe Dog is the important Disney version, Swoosh is its Wolf of Wall Street. Yes, read that one too.

The Man Who Solved The Market — This inspiring Jim Simons story transcended investments. I read this book as a primer for my renewed enthusiasm for mathematics. Simons used it to his advantage by quantifying markets in automated ways before anyone else knew to do so. Not only does this cover the rise of Renaissance Technologies, it explains how the fund influenced our markets first and then our politics. One of the world’s most accomplished investors built a culture that built wealth, that wealth built new industry magnates, those magnates helped America’s 45th president get elected. Robert Mercer is the former CEO of Renaissance Technologies and the principal investor of Cambridge Analytica and partner to Peter Thiel’s Palantir. His daughter is Rebekah Mercer. Simons and his hedge fund are major donors to another candidate.

A Most Beautiful Thing — A recount of the first all-black high school rowing team, Arshay Cooper’s book touched me deeply. Chicago’s West Side was an extremely difficult place to grow up. It is the story of someone without the bottom rungs of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs building his own safety and psychological support through sports. This book is especially close to me. Sponsored by Rowing Blazers, an early investment of 2PM’s, the story became a documentary executive produced by John Carlson, father of Rowing Blazers founder Jack Carlson, and directed by Mary Mazzio. Narrated by Common, the book and documentary shows the depth of ingenuity and the ability to overcome the most extreme of circumstances: poverty, violence, and neglect.

American Rule — Jared Sexton Yates covers 300 years in 300 pages. His ambition is to completely reexamine American history and the myths that we now believe to be law. It’s an uncomfortable read for some. Of course, some will view it as partisanship but when you do read it, look beyond that. Understand the greater themes at play and how they interact with our lives today. Sexton identified blind spots that I didn’t consider. For instance, when we discuss complicity, we rarely mean our own. This book makes you look inward. The book topples giants and raises the forgotten. This excerpt is one that I will never forget:

[I]t becomes obvious that the march on Selma, the Stonewall uprising, Frederick Douglass’s fearless turn as America’s conscience, the perpetual struggle by women and vulnerable minorities to seek equality, and even the ability of people to continue striving, dreaming, and just surviving in a system designed to hinder them at every turn, are just as inspiring as a band of eighteenth-century revolutionaries defeating Great Britain, the world’s foremost empire.

Something to consider.

Empire of Cotton — Harvard historian Sven Beckert’s book on the global history of the cotton trade sat on my desk for months before I had the courage to pick it up. And this one is of the most personal to me. I am the descendant of Nigerians and the English. Half of my family worked in North Carolina only to meet the other Louisiana half in 1979. I’d be born four years later. Beckert’s book is another uncomfortable read. He paints the world’s penchant for war capitalism as a fact as common as the air that we breathe. Consider this excerpt:

When “free trade” was imposed upon the Ottoman Empire in 1838 and British cloth “flooded the market in Izmir,” local cotton workers lost their ability to maintain their old production regime.

Free trade, the economic principle that many of us cherish, was at the root of the rise in capitalism and free labor. It wasn’t a uniquely American problem. The entire world was aided by American labor. Beckert’s words are as objective as you’ll find on the matter.

The Righteous Mind — As a native Texan who now lives in Ohio, navigating religion and politics may as well be part of my job description. Given the entrenched divisions that we find ourselves standing behind, this 2012 book by Jonathan Haidt is one that should have been read by more of us before now. The book sympathizes with Haidt’s liberal politics but it does paint a clear picture that, regardless of what you believe, our perspectives on morality are often wired from birth. This can be blinding to others and Mind implores readers to consider their own blind spots.

Einstein’s War — Arthur Stanley Eddington was the star of this book written by Matthew Stanley. It is a parallel biography of a scientist and thinker who partnered with Einstein to evangelize his scientific breakthrough. Eddington and Einstein were both pacificists, teetotalers, and bohemians but Einstein’s theories fueled Eddington’s practical science and expeditions. The result was both of them rising through the ranks of British astronomy. Merit was not enough; it was Eddington’s marketing and communications expertise that turned an unknown scientist into a legend, almost overnight.

Edison — For any fan of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, author Edmund Morris similarly narrates Thomas Edison’s life from end to beginning, decade by decade. It was the format of this historical text that most fascinated me. Although it is non-conventional, commit to starting at the beginning of the book and working towards the beginning of Edison’s life. It will unlock new perspectives on one of history’s self-made inventors.

The Gucci Mane Guide To Greatness — Gucci Mane is a platinum-selling recording artist and New York Times bestseller author. This will be the most predictable book in the “self-help” category that you’ll ever read, but when you’re done laughing at the recommendation, take a look at a photo of Radric Delantic Davis 10 years ago and compare it today. He doesn’t just look like a different human being; he looks like an altogether different soul. Once 80 pounds overweight and incarcerated, Davis has rededicated his life to health, wealth, and devotion to those around him. He’s someone that you’ll root for. Even if this is the last book that you read, it’s worth understanding the delta between his former life and his current one. That has to be useful.

Atomic Habits — According to esteemed author and 2PM collaborator and James Clear, the holy grail of habit change is 1% of improvement each day. It’s an important lesson that Clear has lived himself. Atomic Habits captures the benefit of compounding improvement, especially the infantismile ones. Clear’s life is made of these moments and so are ours. Like many of you, Clear values the pursuit of deep generalism and optimizing the abilities, influence, and opportunities that you possess. Clear sent a copy in the early fall of 2018, weeks before the October release. At that point, I didn’t know much about him. What I did know is that, like me, he is an Ohio guy. He’s an athlete. And he has insatiable curiosity. I should have read the book much sooner than I did. It took everyone else reading it for me to fully grasp how important his work is for professionals like you and me.

Driven — I first met Dr. Doug Brackmann after an introduction by an Entrepreneur’s Organization colleague at a retreat outside of Nashville. A year later, he became my therapist. This book sums up his philosophy on working with entrepreneurs, leaders, and other highly driven individuals whose characteristics are commonly associated with attention deficit disorder (ADD) or obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD). He’s begun to impact me through his implementation of an alternative meditation style.

Extreme Ownership — By now, the business world is aware of former Navy SEAL Commander Jocko Willink. I was introduced to this book, written by Commander Willink with Leif Babin, through a few mutual friends. While it can be predictable at times, the knowledge that radical accountability can be a competitive advantage takes all 288 pages of the book to break through. It’s chock full of takeaways like this:

When setting expectations, no matter what has been said or written, if substandard performance is accepted and no one is held accountable — if there are no consequences — that poor performance becomes the new standard. Therefore, leaders must enforce standards.

The Restless Wave — I didn’t always agree with his politics, but the late Naval officer, prisoner of war, and U.S. Senator John McCain was a hero of persistence and reinvention for me and many others. There was a moment or two in the senator’s 2007 presidential campaign that I believe many of us would respect a great deal more today. He wasn’t the perfect politician but he had a civility about him that we could use more of today.

The Federalist Papers — There are two reasons to review the historic collection of 85 essays. The first is that the United States of America was highly influenced by them. The second is that it is one of the first lessons in recorded American history of the benefits of prolific content creation. The series was written by John Jay, James Madison, and a household name, Alexander Hamilton, between October 1787 and May 1788. Yes, 85 essays were published in under nine months. They used the anonymous pen name “Publius” and published to the medium of their day: the New York state newspapers.

AmericanahI learned about author Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie later than I would have liked: through 2014’s Beyonce hit “Flawless“, which sampled her wise words on feminism. I’ve been studying her ever since. As a father to two African-American women, I need all the help that I can get for navigating what was, what is, and what will be. Adichie has helped me do just that. Americanah tells the story of a Nigerian woman named Ifemelu, a first-generation immigrant, who navigates near destitution and eventually graduates from college. It’s the quintessential American story, one that proves that the story can be anyone’s.

Moby-Dick – More than fiction, Herman Melville’s Moby-Dick is the story of capitalism in early America. As the center of the whaling industry and the oil trade, Nantucket Island was the Manhattan Island of its day. Many of the country’s wealthiest families earned their status through whaling and went on to impact or inspire American business, philanthropy, and education. From the Starbucks to the Macys or the Folgers, these families were more than capitalists. They were the abolitionists of their day, inviting speakers like Frederick Douglass to the island for rousing oration. You won’t read much about the above in Moby-Dick but you’ll better understand the genesis of wealth as Captain Ahab attempts to avenge his leg while out to sea on the Pequod.

Barracoon: The Story of the Last “Black Cargo” – The story of the last African-American to be traded into slavery is one that I wasn’t ready for. The book is a culmination of study over three months of conversation between author Zora Neale Hurston and “Cudjo Lewis”, the last of the transatlantic slave trade survivors. Born Oluale Kossola, he was kidnapped at age 19 in 1860, just five years before slavery would be abolished, and brought to temporary barracks called barracoons on the coast of modern-day Benin. I loved this book because it reminded me of the resilience of my ancestors as well as the resilience of its author. Hurston recorded these interviews and wrote the book to be published in 1931. Her work would take 85 years to see the light of day. The last African traded into captivity was alive and well in 1927.

Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World – The world was shifting economically, the first World War was raging, and the Spanish Influenza was killing indiscriminately. This is the story of the Paris Accords, written by Margaret MacMillan. The focus is on America’s President Woodrow Wilson who employed many of the same tactics that we see today. For six months, the center of the world was Paris. This book delves into the geo-politics that define our lives today. Peacemakers made new empires out of bankrupt ones and new countries were carved out of wartorn countrysides. History doesn’t repeat; it rhymes. This book will help you identify some of the source material of the proverbial music that we hear today.

These are the books that line my hard oak desk. In any given month, I visit manufacturing plants, I walk through shipping facilities, I sit in front offices, and I serve in boardrooms. I have the pleasure of working alongside a great spectrum of our society. Some of those individuals see the world the way that I do and some would refuse to try. But I have found that while context can never fully mitigate a disagreement, it can begin a conversation. That conversation can become foundational. And that foundation can lead to better things over time. When I write, it’s from a place of objectivity and consideration to the people that I meet and those who I write for. These are the authors, books, and texts that have shaped me.

By Web Smith | Editor: Hilary Milnes |Art: Alex Remy | About 2PM

Memo: Chaos and Q4 Logistics

The fourth tax quarter is typically a productive one for profit-hungry retailers and the industrial complex that supports these businesses, including packaging companies, third-party logistics, and branding and design agencies. The Black Friday sales holiday has grown bigger, more promotional, and much longer in kind. A holiday sales event that once began on the day following Thanksgiving, Black Friday became a week, a month, and then a season. Retail executives have begun to note this shift in consumer-driven media. Bonobos CEO Micky Onvural recently told Glossy:

We believed that October 1 was the beginning of holiday; that’s when we started to think about it, as many brands did.

In “The Failing Fundamentals“, I began the essay with a warning shot: “We have never seen such volatility as what November 2020 is shaping up to bring.” In the context of online retail’s skyrocketing gross merchandising volume, rising digital advertising costs as a result of enterprise involvement, COVID-related uncertainties, and a weakened United States Postal Service, the average retailer may be unprepared for the obstacles that are likely to come. Here’s the primary takeaway:

A paradox for Black Friday and smaller retailers is that the gross merchandising volume (GMV) in online retail for the month of November will achieve a record high. Most of this volume will be attributed to Walmart, Target, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Academy, Best Buy, and Amazon’s decision to emphasize eCommerce before (and potentially on) the biggest shopping day of the year. By closing all physical stores for Thanksgiving, the market can anticipate digital ad spend of historic proportions. This spend, in turn, may lead to a rise in customer acquisition cost (CAC) for smaller retailers.

In addition to prohibitive advertising costs, rising shipping fees and increased eCommerce competition, COVID-related uncertainties now include medical industry shipping through FedEx. In high-level logistics circles, there is credible concern that shipping lines are further disrupted as big box retailers, direct-to-consumer brands, and distributors of vaccinations converge on an already strained capacity. This is especially the case for perishable food retailers. A September 29 report by The Atlantic began:

On the day that a COVID-19 vaccine is approved, a vast logistics operation will need to awaken. Millions of doses must travel hundreds of miles from manufacturers to hospitals, doctor’s offices, and pharmacies, which in turn must store, track, and eventually get the vaccines to people all across the country. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, along with state and local health departments, coordinates this process. These agencies distributed flu vaccines during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic this way, and they manage childhood vaccines every day. But the COVID-19 vaccine will be a whole new challenge. [1]

In logistics leadership circles, executives have argued that the expansive operation will commence at the end of November, as many retailers will be taking on the highest volume of orders that they’ve earned all year. With little to no communication around the prospect of vaccinations shipping from factories owned by Moderna or the joint venture by Germany’s BioNTech and Pfizer, there is little solid data to rely upon, but shipping and logistics becomes the bottleneck for retail in a vulnerable consumer economy. The most vulnerable receiving medications they need will become the priority, and at some point, brands will need to plan around further interruption. That means customers will need to be made aware of evolving shipping status and the likelihood of longer-than-normal waits. An already struggling supply chain will need to account for slower shipments of raw materials, food stores, or consumer goods as other shipping lines are co-opted to manage overflow.

November and December should be winning months for independent retailers, small business owners, and brands. But if shipping channels are directly or indirectly impacted by the healthcare industry, smaller retailers should be prepared to move to the back of the line. There are exceptions. Amazon will spend $52 billion on warehousing and shipping, according to Digital Commerce 360 research. According to Bank of America’s Global Research, Amazon is now in command of nearly 175 million square feet of warehousing with the ability to process, pack, and deliver over 50% of the goods that it sells.

Amazon is approaching a truly vertically integrated logistics network on par with the largest delivery companies in the world.

In the 1960s, MIT Professor Edward Lorenz programmed a vacuum-tube-based Royal-McBee computer in hopes of using defense tools to predict the weather. He’d later note in a theory called the butterfly effect that a butterfly’s wings over the Amazon could impact weather in China. This phenomenon was called “deterministic chaos.” Another influence on retail, the shipment of dry-iced vaccinations and medical supplies will have an impact on Q4 logistics whether the shipping channels are conventional or more specialized. Why? Our logistics infrastructure is already at maximum capacity. Supply chain is strained, packages are late, and the USPS accuracy rate is likely lower than it was just two years prior. This is how eCommerce can intersect with an altogether unrelated world of healthcare and defense. The butterfly effect.

Enterprise retailers like Walmart, Target, and Best Buy will be largely dependent on the infrastructure that Amazon has left behind. We have never seen the culmination of factors facing retailers today. For the few who prepared for an early holiday season, these next weeks are still as important than the first weeks of October, if not more. But if the concerns around our logistics infrastructure are valid, the retail industry will need patience. Though the US economy is important to maintain, essential logistical transport is far more critical. It would be wise to prepare customers for added wait times and temporary frustrations. We’ve never quite seen a holiday season like the one that will come.

By Web Smith | Editor: Hilary Milnes | About 2PM

Memo: DTC’s COVID Advantage

There’s a movie scene that you may remember. The family that hailed from the North Shore of Chicago ran through the airport with ease, leaving their rambunctious son behind. With just 45 minutes to travel from Winnetka, Illinois, to their plane’s departing gate, they succeeded in driving 30 minutes and navigating one of America’s busiest airports in under fifteen (and with all of their luggage checked). For those who would grow up to watch the film after 2001, there was an element that was missing at Chicago’s O’Hare airport: the inconvenience of modern airport security. Until 2001, airports were more like malls. Traffic could flow in and out freely. Small shops and restaurants had visitors who were not ticketed for flights. Security was scant, and the performative aspect of security barely existed.

Until September 11, 2001, a 20-year-old independent firm called Argenbright Security was America’s largest security screening firm. With nearly 25,000 employees and 44 domestic airports, Argenbright was about half of the size of today’s Transportation Security Administration.

As the head of the company whose screeners worked at two of the three airports targeted on Sept. 11 — Newark and Washington’s Dulles — Argenbright quickly became a scapegoat in the aftermath of the terror attacks. On Oct. 12, 2001, then-Attorney General John Ashcroft publicly announced that parent company “Argenbright Holdings continues to violate laws that protect the safety of Americans who travel by commercial airlines.” [1]

The business soon disappeared after the conception of the Transportation Security Administration. An article in the Las Vegas Sun, just one year later, noted:

Argenbright is nearly gone from U.S. airports, all but forced out of the business by a string of security breaches. [2]

When the federal government chose to assume the security of America’s airports, the execution of the strategy seemed to happen overnight. By the end of 2002, in just one year, TSA was a force of 60,000 employees. Between September 11 and November 19 of 2001, the way that America interacted with airports changed forever. Gone were the days of walking a family member to his or her gate. TSA’s approach to human-powered detection meant that entry lines were slower and earlier arrivals were necessary. The small changes added up: identification requirements, shoe removal, screened baggage, a ban on liquids, removing electronics from all bags, removing belts and sweaters, the enhanced pat-downs, and the end of welcome committees.

If air travel tracked an industry-wide net promoter score (NPS), the first pain point raised would be the sense of intrusion that you endure whenever you travel commercially. The TSA does commandeer a number of weapons (knives, etc) each year along with $649 drivers that they categorize as weapons. You can retrieve neither upon completing the screening process. Yes: if you brought a single golf club with you, it’s now an agent’s property. Meanwhile, over my previous 70 trips, TSA has ignored the small knife on my keychain while removing a mid-sized bottle of skin moisturizer – nearly every time. While TSA’s role is important, their process is mostly performative. And brick and mortar retailers are beginning to adopt many of these attributes.

I’m not TSA. I’m a bartender. [3]

Today’s retail industry is beginning to resemble the year that followed 9/11. In many states, shutdown orders have lifted and retailers and restaurants have begun to reopen. As the economy continues to reopen, wage workers are doubling as security personnel. Many are having to enforce the use of face coverings and social distancing protocols. And some retailers have taken it one step further. In 2PM’s spring 2020 memo, The Dust Settles, I wrote about changes in travel customs in the context of retail and performative safety. 

The next time that I’d fly out of Providence, Rhode Island, it would be to see my family for Thanksgiving 2001. By then, everything was different. As a global culture, we moved 20 years in just two months. The new customs were tolerable because we thought that they would be temporary. They weren’t. The new customs set like concrete.

In Pittsburgh’s Shadyside neighborhood, the Patagonia store that once featured a capacity for 75 guests now caps their in-store traffic at ten customers at a time. After a 10-15 minute wait, the store associate checks the customer’s mask and then asks to wash and then sanitize hands. To enter the store, the associate explains their safety protocol over 90 seconds to each person entering the store. You are to self-report any item of clothing that you touch so that it can be removed, steamed, and returned to its original safe state. There are no longer try-ons in the store.

In Nashville’s 12th Avenue area: Madewell, Outdoor Voices, Draper James, Imogene + Willie, and other brands have employed similar strategies. With the exception of big box retailers, you will find that these safety strategies are more common than not. It has degraded the brick and mortar shopping experience. And it is pushing consumers to other channels.

Air travel was a five star experience when it began. The economy class did not exist prior to the 1950’s and neither did budget airlines. Amenities like food, alcohol, and entertainment were plentiful – relative to its era. The interiors of cabins were well appointed and the space and home comforts were notable. In many ways, this sounds like fine retail prior to COVID.

The evolution of post-COVID retail involves many of the strategies that the TSA employs to assure air travelers of their safety. Though some of it has yielded positive results, the vast majority of it is performative. For every bottle of lotion thwarted, a sharp object or a lighter passes through. But travel does seem safe and that is the goal. The question becomes, can brick and mortar retail suffer the same degradation of and still maintain its place in American consumerism? While 48% of American consumers travel through the air, nearly every adult consumer visits a store.

The airline industry is well aware that customers are fed up with the performative arts of airport security. Retail customers will grow tired of the performance much sooner. For affluent travelers, there are more options than ever to include TSA PreCheck and Clear. Any digital tool that clears the commitment to added time and steeper inconvenience has grown in appeal. Notice this parallel:

Clear was born of disaster. Founded in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, Clear — originally known as Verified Identity Pass — rode a wave of new funding from Congress allocated to secure American airports from terrorist plots. That history isn’t lost on the company. In its recent presentation on Health Pass, Clear compared coronavirus’s impact to the terrorist attacks of 9/11. [4]

There are analogs for the parallel that I am going to make. Like digital verification has become the patchwork for a broken screening strategy throughout America’s airports, digital commerce will become the antidote for the burdens placed on brick and mortar retailers to perform safety. The direct-to-consumer industry is positioned to benefit from these new safety measures. Customers prefer the joys of the physical retail experience. It’s how we’re wired to consume.

While online retail is but a fraction of the aggregate retail economy, this shift (one with no end in sight) will be a catalyst for its growth. When the dust settles, brands will see more of their business shifting to online channels. Retail is supposed to be mindless, enjoyable, and efficient. Those measures are no longer attributed to the physical spaces. With better online store performance and conversion tools like SHOP Pay, Google Pay, and Apple Pay: those attributes are assigned to physical retail’s digital equivalents.

In the previous decades, air travel democratized. It proved that what was inaccessible could eventually become common. COVID is accelerating the adoption of what was inaccessible to many consumers: eCommerce. Digital is becoming the new physical.

Report by Web Smith | Art: Alex Remy | Editor: Grace Clarke | About 2PM