Category: Member Briefs

Temporarily Unlocked For The HBS “Optimization Chat.” In 1964, a Canadian-funded expedition led by Montreal physician Stanley Skoryna sailed to Rapa Nui (Easter Island) to conduct an unprecedented ecological survey of its biosphere led to the discovery of rapamycin, launching an enduring field of biomedical research. Known by the science community as a life-altering, life-extending drug, “Rapamycin is the most effective known cancer-preventive agent in mice. It has even been suggested that rapamycin extends lifespan by preventing cancer.” (NLM)

The drug is known to mimic calorie restriction. It works by inhibiting mTOR. mTOR sends signals to cells affecting growth, metabolism, and autophagy (a process that clears old cells in favors of new ones). How do I know any of this? And why do I even care? I am certainly not alone.

Ask ten college-bound students with top-percentile ACT scores what they plan to major in and you may hear “neuroscience” or any other biological science. I would guess that you would hear this more than you would have a decade ago, when that same student may have replied with “computer science” or “engineering.”

Let’s call it the Huberman effect.

The dawn of the 21st century has witnessed an ever-increasing focus on personal wellness and optimization. This trend, fueled by technological innovation, a renewed interest in hyper-healthy foods and an influx of digital health and wellness brands, is transforming the health industry. Companies like Whoop, Eight Sleep, Apollo Neuro, Base, Oura Ring, and Apple, with its highly successful “Ultra” version, have paved the way for this new era of human optimization.

You may have also heard of Brian Johnson. He’s the entrepreneur who sold his company Braintree to Paypal for $800 million and then devoted his life at 45 to various methods of age reversal, attempting to shed his biological age down to 18 years. He’s wealthy, obsessive, driven, and uniquely focused on his own body. He’s not the only one (though his methods may be extreme). From a January 2023 Bloomberg BusinessWeek article on the anti-aging pioneer:

This year, he’s on track to spend at least $2 million on his body. He wants to have the brain, heart, lungs, liver, kidneys, tendons, teeth, skin, hair, bladder, penis and rectum of an 18-year-old.

There’s a collective of data points that suggest the “Medicine 3.0” craze has provided tailwinds for an array of health-focused companies. Medicine 3.0 is a highly-personalized stage of sophistication in healthcare that we are accelerating towards. It’s predicated on “evidence-informed” as opposed to “evidence-based” guidelines around preventative measures for chronic conditions, which are now “the dominant source of morbidity and mortality.”

The growth of Restore Hyper Wellness is a testament to this trend. Founded with the mission to make wellness treatments more affordable and accessible, the company has expanded rapidly, offering a broad range of services, including cryotherapy, IV drip therapy, and hyperbaric oxygen therapy. They have democratized access to wellness treatments, typically reserved for professional athletes and the wealthy, to the general public. This shift has been instrumental in empowering individuals to take control of their wellness journey.

In parallel, a new breed of educators and influencers has emerged, with podcasts and digital platforms to spread awareness and knowledge about personal health optimization. Lex Fridman, an AI researcher at MIT, hosts a podcast known for deep, thought-provoking conversations on AI, mindfulness, and human potential. Dr. Andrew Huberman, a neuroscientist and tenured professor at Stanford University School of Medicine, shares his deep knowledge about the brain and its impact on our behavior and well-being. Dr. David Sinclair, a professor in the Department of Genetics and co-director of the Paul F. Glenn Center for the Biology of Aging at Harvard Medical School, explores the science of aging and longevity. Finally, Dr. Peter Attia, a former surgical oncology fellow at Johns Hopkins Hospital, focuses on the science of longevity, nutritional biochemistry, and exercise physiology. Their collective influence has been instrumental in driving a cultural shift towards proactive, preventative health.

Simultaneously, we are seeing a reemergence of interest in hyper-healthy consumer packaged goods retailers. This trend is not about fad diets but about embracing nutrient-dense, whole foods that support optimal human function. Companies like Heart & Soil, Force of Nature, and ButcherBox are leading the charge in this space, delivering high-quality, grass-fed meats and organ meats, known for their dense nutrient profiles, straight to consumers’ doors. The popularity of these brands reflects a broader societal shift towards transparency, sustainability, and nutrient density in our food choices.

On the accountability front, wearable technology like Whoop, Eight Sleep, and Apple Ultra are playing a crucial role. These devices provide real-time data on a range of health markers, including sleep quality, heart rate variability, and physical activity. This personalized data empowers individuals to make informed decisions about their lifestyle and habits, reinforcing a culture of accountability and personal responsibility for health. Whoop, for instance, offers insights into recovery, strain, and sleep, enabling users to optimize their daily routines for peak performance. Apple’s Ultra wearable takes it a step further, integrating health tracking with a broader ecosystem of apps and services designed to support overall wellness.

The proliferation of eCommerce brands in this space is another critical aspect of this emerging industry. Companies like Thrive Market and Misfits Market are not just selling products; they are selling a lifestyle. They provide consumers with the insights they need to take control of their health, whether it’s high-quality, nutrient-dense foods, supplements, or wellness products. These companies are thriving because they align with the values and priorities of a growing segment of the population that is actively seeking ways to optimize their health and performance.

Human optimization is no longer a niche interest, but a full-blown cultural and economic trend. As we enter this new era, we see the intersection of technology, education, personal responsibility, and a renewed focus on the quality of the food we consume.

The data-driven insights offered by wearable technology are not just changing the way we approach fitness and health; they’re altering our perception of what is possible. With these tools, we are no longer passive recipients of health advice but active participants in our wellness journeys. This is one of the core tenets of prevention that Dr. Peter Attia espouses when referencing Medicine 3.0. For a deep dive, read his new book Outlive. There are endless nuggets like this one:

[Rapamycin’s] autophagy-promoting effect is only one reason why rapamycin may have a future as a longevity drug, according to Matt Kaeberlein, a researcher at the University of Washington. Kaeberlein, who has been studying rapamycin and mTOR for a couple of decades, believes that the drug’s benefits are much more wide-ranging and that rapamycin and its derivatives have huge potential for use in humans, for the purpose of extending lifespan and healthspan.

Summary

The education provided by influential figures in the realm of health and wellness is democratizing knowledge that was once confined to academic and clinical circles. The podcasts of Lex Fridman, Dr. Andrew Huberman, Dr. David Sinclair, and Dr. Peter Attia have made complex health, fitness, and longevity concepts accessible to the masses, sparking a widespread interest in personal optimization.

The resurgence of hyper-healthy foods underscores a collective reevaluation of our dietary choices. This shift is not just a rejection of processed, nutrient-poor foods but an embrace of those that provide us with the nutrients our bodies need to function optimally.

And the success of eCommerce brands in this space reflects a growing demand for products and services that support this optimization-focused lifestyle. These brands are not merely selling goods; they are providing the tools, resources, and community needed for individuals to take charge of their health.

The emergence of human optimization as a major industry underscores a profound shift in societal values and priorities. It speaks to a collective desire to not just live longer, but to live better. As more individuals strive to reach their full potential, companies, educators, brands, and services are rising to meet this demand, paving the way for a healthier future for a higher percentage of our citizens. This paradigm shift, driven by technological innovation, education, and a renewed focus on quality nutrition, is just the beginning of what promises to be a transformative journey towards optimized health and wellness. And to think, this resurgent interest in anti-aging methods may have all started with visits to the mysterious Easter Island. No, not the one in 1964. The ones where Dr. Peter Attia joined Tim Ferris and a rotating group of science-loving buddies.

By Web Smith | Edited by Hilary Milnes with art by Christina Williams

Temporarily unlocked. There are no answers here, few forecasts and no real predictions. This is just a reaction to surprising data. Behind closed doors at retailers everywhere, large and small, I suspect that this is the conversation being had.

That outlet mall was 11 minutes away from the home where I spent my elementary school years. A lot has changed in that part of Texas since the early 1990s. Allen, Texas wasn’t the nationally ranked wealth suburb back then. Today, the median household income is $113,719. Unemployment is 4.3% and poverty is negligible. It’s an idyllic place. It’s the idea of the suburb that I wrote about when I explained my concept of Sanitized Urbanization. Few states build suburbs better than Texas. In short, “sanitized urbanization takes the best parts of urban renewal and imports them to upper-middle class and wealthy exurbs.” It was a quote by Noah Smith, a Bloomberg columnist, that spurred this idea along:

“The suburbs” won’t mean exactly what it meant in the 1970s. Then, the term conjured visions of malls, single-family houses separated by broad lawns, and homogeneous White populations. In order to attract today’s urbanites, suburbs will have to offer something a bit different. [Crain’s]

I went on to explain how most metropolitan areas like Dallas are adopting a format that allows for each suburban area to be self-sustaining with its own retail centers, medical facilities, and living spaces. Polycentric development (having more than one center) is a pattern of transport connectivity, urban planning, mixed use development, and progressive city  design. The result of this type of development is a classification of suburban development that has become more commonplace as younger earners continue to flee cities.

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It’s against this backdrop that I view the tragic loss of life in an area that has never experienced this magnitude of violence. New data from the Violence Project suggests that the type of violence that occurred in Allen, Texas is accelerating.

We often think of schools as the primary targets of these acts of needless violence, but while every act is, in itself, awful: retail is now at the center of it.

Until recently, the average American who viewed cable news categorized retail crime as acts of theft and vandalism concentrated in areas like San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York City, Oakland, Miami, and Chicago. In the 2022 National Retail Federation’s Retail Security Survey, the most pressing issues as it related to the “risk and threat priorities” of retail executives were guest-on-associate violence, external theft, organized retail crime and cyber crimes. “Mass violence” was in the fifth position with 28.1% of executives suggesting that it was “somewhat more” concerning and 29.8% of those polled believing that it was much more concerning. This priority list my change in the coming months.

As retail executives, it is crucial to understand the evolving landscape of public safety and its impact on brick and mortar businesses. The recent tragic mass shooting at the Premium Outlet in Allen, Texas has highlighted the vulnerability of retail locations to such acts of violence. While it is a retail problem, the real solution is not in the control of the retail industry itself. The narrative will need to elevate the concerns around the social contagion that is the targeting of innocent civilians in retail locations and nearby restaurants. I found this paragraph from a recent journal article in the National Library of Medicine to be relevant to one explanation of the data mentioned in this report.

Recently a contagion effect, similar to a “copycat” effect, has been suggested in mass shootings. This effect suggests that behaviors can be “contagious” and spread across a population. In the example of mass shootings, a contagion effect would be said to exist if a single mass shooting incident increased the likelihood of other instances of mass shootings in the near future. Contagion has been documented across a variety of other behaviors, including airplane hijackings, smoking cessation, and binge eating, and has been well researched in relation to suicide. There is now evidence that when a mass shooting occurs, there is a temporary increase in the probability of another event within the next 13 days on average.

So I found it valuable to explore the history of retail shootings from 1969 to 2022 as well as any and all implications for brick and mortar businesses in the coming years. This includes the likelihood of increased visibility of armed guards at malls, potential militarization of on-site police officers, and the potential shift towards online retail due to changing attitudes towards safety.

A Historical Perspective: 1969-2022

1969-1990: During this period, mass shootings in retail spaces were relatively uncommon. Although incidents like the 1980 shooting at the Liberty City Shopping Center in Miami, Florida, which claimed two lives, raised concerns, there was limited public awareness about the potential risks associated with retail locations. Consequently, security measures were not significantly heightened during this time.

1990-2000: The 1990s witnessed an increase in retail shootings, bringing the issue to the forefront. The tragic 1992 shooting at the Fort Hood Mall in Killeen, Texas, where 23 lives were lost, was a turning point. This incident sparked discussions about the necessity of enhancing safety protocols in malls. While some malls began implementing security measures such as increased surveillance and limited access points, the overall response remained relatively limited.

2000-2010: Mass shootings in retail locations continued to occur with alarming frequency during this period. Incidents such as the 2007 Trolley Square shooting in Salt Lake City, Utah, and the 2008 Westroads Mall shooting in Omaha, Nebraska, further underscored the urgent need for improved security. These incidents prompted retailers to collaborate more closely with law enforcement agencies to enhance security measures. However, the scale of the problem remained significant.

2010-2022: Mass shootings at retail locations reached a distressing peak during this period. Incidents such as the 2012 Aurora theater shooting in Colorado and the 2019 Walmart shooting in El Paso, Texas, where numerous lives were lost, amplified public concerns about safety in retail spaces. Retailers began taking security more seriously and worked to improve measures to protect their customers and employees. However, the high number of incidents continued to pose challenges.

Here is a breakdown of the alarming data surrounding mass shootings, detailed by year (source: The Violence Project):

Growing up, it was a widely held belief that the most dangerous schools were the ones with metal detectors. These were the schools in rougher parts of town; violence was anticipated and so was the presence of law enforcement. Even today, the best public high schools in the United States avoid this measure. They believe that it would communicate that the assumption of safety was a lost cause. While this is the prevailing behavior in K-12 schools, retail centers may not hold similar beliefs.

Projected Impact and Market Assumptions

Increased visibility of armed guards: In the wake of the rising frequency of retail shootings, it is likely that malls and retail locations will prioritize security measures to ensure the safety of shoppers. Armed guards may become more visible, acting as a deterrent and providing rapid response in case of emergencies. This heightened security presence will aim to instill a sense of safety among shoppers and employees, encouraging them to continue visiting physical stores. The presence of armed guards can also serve as a proactive measure, potentially deterring potential assailants.

Potential militarization of police officers: Given the gravity of the trend line, it is possible that police officers responding to retail shootings will appear more militarized. The aim would be to swiftly neutralize threats and minimize casualties. However, striking a balance between effective response and maintaining a welcoming environment is crucial to prevent unnecessary fear or discomfort for shoppers. Collaboration between law enforcement agencies and retailers will play a vital role in establishing guidelines that prioritize both safety and the customer experience.

Shift towards online retail: The changing attitudes towards safety in retail spaces may inadvertently lead to a shift towards online retail. Consumers, increasingly concerned about their wellbeing, may opt for the convenience and perceived safety of online shopping. This shift poses challenges for traditional brick-and-mortar retailers. To adapt, retailers must invest in developing robust online platforms and implementing effective omnichannel strategies that seamlessly integrate their online and offline presence. This approach allows retailers to cater to changing consumer preferences while providing a consistent brand experience.

Retailers may likely leverage the shift towards online retail by enhancing their digital marketing efforts, improving website user experience, and offering personalized recommendations to engage customers. The Connected Mall concept that I wrote about in 2020 will become commonplace throughout the many, premium suburban malls peppering the United States.

Here is that thesis. Easton Town Center, the premium retailer at the center of the thesis eventually facilitated the operation (same day shipping in a 20 mile radius), though the solution still appears early.

It is important to note that the shift towards online retail is not a complete solution. The risk of violence should not keep customers out of stores. Many consumers still value the tangible experience of visiting physical stores, socializing, and engaging with products firsthand. Therefore, brick and mortar retailers should focus on creating unique in-store experiences that emphasize safety while recognizing that there’s only so much that can be done without governmental intervention.

Looking ahead to 2025, the market assumptions for brick and mortar businesses are multifaceted. On one hand, the demand for enhanced safety measures and visible security presence may lead to increased costs for retailers. Budget allocations for security personnel, technology upgrades, and training programs may rise to ensure the safety and well-being of customers and employees. Retailers should view these investments as vital for building trust, maintaining a secure environment, and mitigating potential risks.

On the other hand, the integration of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and data analytics can help retailers optimize their security strategies. AI-powered surveillance systems can identify potential threats in real-time and trigger immediate alerts, enabling a proactive response. ML algorithms can analyze historical data to identify patterns and predict potential risks, assisting retailers in implementing safety measures. I anticipate these types of preventative measures to become more common.

The history of retail shootings at malls reflects an unfortunate reality of our society. It is crucial to acknowledge the impact of such incidents and proactively address safety concerns to ensure the longevity and success of brick and mortar businesses. By increasing the visibility of armed guards, collaborating with law enforcement agencies, and embracing technology for both online and in-store experiences, retailers can navigate the evolving landscape of safety, build consumer trust, and maintain a competitive edge in the retail industry.

Without viewing retail violence with a proactive lens, the concept of the suburban mall, one of the enduring tentpoles in American capitalism will be unrecognizable. And given that this sort of violence is less tolerable to many (than the same magnitude of violence elsewhere), the irony is not lost on me. Capitalism is at stake and retail is America’s chief employer. Maybe then, something will have to be done about it – in a way that respects personal liberty while also respecting the importance of life.

Retail has been at the center of a political maelstrom for a while now but the Allen, Texas massacre is likely to exacerbate things. Adapting to this, the changing consumer attitudes, fears and preferences will be vital in fostering a secure shopping environment. Ultimately, the answers to these concerns will determine the future of retail in the United States.

By Web Smith | Edited by Hilary Milnes with art by Alex Remy and Christina Williams

Part one of this series: Where NatSec Meets Commerce (China’s Influence)

Editor’s Note: I hate the phrase “thoughts and prayers” because it denotes a powerlessness to affect change. My hope is that the contribution of this perspective helps in some way, shape or form. My sincerest condolences to the families, businesses, and lost lives impacted by this tragic event.