No. 316: The Rise of “O2O”

In a recent report in the Minnesota Star-Tribune, Jackie Crosby details Target’s latest plan with their recently rebranded media company – Roundel.

Target Corp. does more than just sell merchandise to shoppers. Since 2016, it also has operated a separate, in-house media company that creates digital advertising for a host of major brands and businesses, not all of whom sell products at Target stores.

According to the recently-named president of Roundel, Kristi Argyilan believes that the in-house agency “represents a different way of thinking.” Target serves as a bridge between its customers and nearly 1,000 business partners in a novel way: “We infuse math — the insights and analytics that make our media company successful, with magic — the great, guest-focused design and shopping experiences that differentiate Target.” Roundel develops ad campaigns for Target.com and about 150 digital platforms like Pinterest and Instagram.

Facebook’s foray into Instagram eCommerce was more defensive than analysts have so-far remarked.

The Star-Tribune report noted that the retailer isn’t the only company reconsidering the strength of an in-house media business. Walmart debuted an overhaul to Walmart Media Group in recent months. In addition, Amazon generated $10 billion in advertising in 2018 per the report. With Target, the report indicated, a new advertising identity would show to potential new clients that offerings extend beyond Target.com display ads. For Roundel – data and advertising design aren’t the differentiators, the physical stores are. The agency’s hope is to pioneer the analytics to correctly determine online-to-offline sales efficacy.

Target gets you every time

Most of us underestimate the potential at the intersection of performance marketing and physical retailers like Target. Outside of Foursquare’s private data, there isn’t yet a sufficient means of quantifying the marketing influence that the internet has on the traditional DTC-era consumer who also shops in physical environments. I’ll try to explain with my recent, one-off anecdote.

On a recent visit to Target, I was searching for place mats when I walked past the Quip display along the main corridor. On a mission to spend no more than $30, I felt pulled to the display like a tractor beam. Without the physical display, a Quip purchase would have remained a long-term “maybe.” As such, I disregarded my $30 commitment and picked up a Quip box. But this funnel began long before that walk past the display of battery-powered toothbrushes.


Observations:

  • Awareness of the product: I’d read about it in tech media and retail publications (top funnel), I’d seen the product in searches (middle funnel), and I’ve passively noticed a few retargeting advertisements over the past several months. None of this visibility moved me closer to the sale.
  • The packaging design: structurally unique when compared to the incumbent brands like Oral-B, Philips Sonicare. The box, itself, was taller. Target stockists have no choice but to place the product on the top shelf – prioritizing the Quip over the likes of traditional devices.
  • Branding: The colors popped and the design was superior, because the incumbent devices all possessed some variation of blue and white packaging.
  • Value: The price was 30-60% cheaper than the conventional, powered toothbrush.

Familiarity, appeal, and price were factors in my decision to purchase. But Target isn’t the only retailer that is competing to develop an O2O-capable, in-house media business. Walmart has overhauled its team – with the anticipation of a long period of growth. And Amazon generated $10 billion in advertising in 2018. Display advertising through Target, Walmart, and Amazon has been used to offset the rising costs of traditional advertising services like Facebook and Google. We expect this to grow. Digiday+ recently surveyed 71 media buying executives in March 2019. Nearly 80% anticipated increased spend on Amazon.com, 20% of the executives were planning to spend more on Walmart.com, and 14% were scheduled to spend more on Target.com through their reinvented advertising house.

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Target is a retail marvel, you walk in for one $20 item and you leave $140 poorer. There isn’t a brick and mortar retailer that is better for certain DTCs. It’s the ultimate retargeting ad.

Fostering DTC brand relationships has been a strategic advantage for the Minnesota retailer; no marketplace retailer has more of them. There are few companies with DTC recruitment initiatives to match Target’s recent partnership speed. The retailer selects rising brands, markets them with prime real estate, and presents great products within an environment known for soliciting impulsive purchases. Even so, the largest DTC brands have taken the digital-to-physical sales funnel into their own hands.

The online-to-offline Sales Funnel

In No. 272: A Path Forward, I discussed the positives of DTC brands operating within existing retail developments, improved sales potential, foot traffic KPIs, and the decline of Tier B and C malls.

There are 1,100+ malls in America and approximately 320 are graded Tier A. We have an oversupply of malls but that does not mean that traditional, anchored shopping centers no longer have a place in modern consumerism. Tier A malls have yet to see their best years. We expect their footfall traffic KPIs to grow, while B and C tiered malls continue a drift toward repurposed real estate.

O2O or “online-to-offline” commerce is a strategy that develops consumer affinity through digital channels and then brings consumers into physical settings to purchase in-store. The brand treats online and offline channels as complimentary offerings. The advantage of this model is three-fold: these retailers can assess consumer behaviors, share payment information between online and offline channels, and targeted consumers can be served at the top of the digital funnel for eventual offline purchase (or vice versa). Facebook’s foray into Instagram eCommerce was more defensive than analysts have so-far remarked.

We compiled a list of 14 brands that have publicly reported revenues in the Top 1000 and one retailer who has yet to publicly report revenue. The following DTC brands have almost exclusively avoided marketplace wholesale deals in exchange for focusing on direct sales through physical locations.

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Whether through advertising agencies like Roundel or through their own channels, these brands have benefited from a growing means of commerce: online-to-offline. With the exception of Casper, which is partially owned by Target, these top digital natives have insourced all brick and mortar sales to their direct channels. As the ability to attribute sales improves, we anticipate an increased use of O2O for customer acquisition. For performance marketers who are judged by conversion rates and return on ad spend (ROAS), O2O is a welcomed opportunity to develop new methodologies for sales attribution and new advertising models to increase targeted foot traffic for retailers straddling the digital and the physical.

Read the latest curation here.

Report by Web Smith | About 2PM

Member Brief: 2007 – 2019

2007

In this report, I review and update two assertions from the archives:

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No. 314: On Linear Commerce

onlinearcommerce.jpg

I’d never seen anything like it. It was my first time at Augusta National and I wasn’t just a casual observer of the craze – I was a willing participant. Within two hours of being at Augusta, I’d convinced my father to join me in observing one of the event’s grand traditions. The average attendee will spend over $700 on merchandise.

The shop’s guests were mostly affluent and leisurely people; the audience at Berckmans Place took that affluence up a notch or two. Reports suggested that the average order value (AOV) of a Masters patron surpassed $750. And within 48 hours, at-home viewers will find these products on Ebay for 2x-5x of their suggested retail prices. And those resold products flew off of the product pages, as well. But despite the availability of the souvenirs and memorabilia, it didn’t seem like a money grab for the golf tournament. The prices were reasonable. And within 15 minutes of the Tiger Woods’ fist pump, the pro shops were closed to the public.

Perhaps golf’s most prestigious event, the audience was captive to say the least. I observed more than engagement, I observed a giddiness, an unnatural cordiality, and a sense of overwhelming joy by most on the property. Maybe it was the lack of phones (they were to be left at the entrance). But there was a particular effect that I cannot quite articulate. It’s an effect that brands only hope to emulate. It’s when the experience indexes so positively that consumers have no choice but to return the value by giving brands more money. Here’s an anecdote from a 2018 article in GQ:

The line to get in doubles as a Masters museum, and post-checkout, customers are given the option to ship their purchases home directly from the store. But what’s most interesting isn’t the fact that you can buy so much Masters gear in one place, and do so efficiently. No, it’s that this— one shop in Augusta, Georgia — is the only place in the entire world that you can buy it. Because of this, Masters merch has taken on a cult-like following, spawning obsessives and even a large resale market. To put it another way: Officially branded Masters products are basically Supreme for dads.

Sure, part of it is “I went and I want to show you that I went.” That’s the rational trigger that influences a great deal of modern retail. But sometimes, it’s a little more than that. An event, an experience, a streaming media property, or even a widely read blog can evoke an emotion that influences consumerism. These expressions can almost guarantee a baseline of organic sales. But it’s rare to see brands use these principles for their own growth. For the longest time, I searched for a physical manifestation of what I called linear commerce. I found it in Augusta.

The Masters was one of few physical examples of what happens when a curated and eager audience meets sales opportunity. A conservative estimate suggested that 2018’s Masters tournament generated $60 – 70 million in sales in its week. With an estimated 160,000 visitors over the four-day tournament, the Masters out-earned the yearly revenue of the 40th percentile of all digitally native brands in less than a week’s time.

On Linear Commerce

The digital economy rewards the entities that exist at the intersection of digital media and traditional eCommerce. A great product needs an organic and impassioned audience. Captive audiences will need products and services tailored to their tastes.

Law of Linear Commerce: the lines of demarcation between media and commerce are fading. For the brands that are most suited to the modern retail economy: media and commerce operations work to optimize for audience and sales conversion. This is the efficient path for sustained growth, retention, and profitability.

Brands will develop publishing as a core competency, and publishers will develop retail operations as a core competency. Below, you’ll find a visual representation of the launch strategies often found in the direct to consumer space.

The five basic stages of DTC linear commerce.

While versions (1) and (2) are the most predictable paths taken by venture-backed DTC brands, we’re beginning to see more of version (4) being implemented. Founder of Recess, Ben Witte launched “IRL.” A form of repurposed physical retail space, the location is designed to develop the consumer’s understanding of the Recess brand and his product pipeline. The space is designed to give the drink a purpose. At IRL, Witte schedules educational events to enrich and inspire the CPG brand’s target demographic.

Meanwhile at Away, “Here” magazine provides a tether between Steph Korey and Jen Rubio’s first market (North America) and their international growth. In this way, “Here” is a blend of versions (4) and (5). While many of Away‘s North American target consumers are aware that Away exists, “Here” has served, abroad, as an introduction to the brand. Nearly 12% of the publication’s traffic is derived internationally through WhatsApp, a sign that the approach to educating international consumers is tangible.

While version (5) is rare, chief marketers are beginning to understand its value. The best practical example of the Version 5 launch plan was Emily Weiss’ go-to-market strategy. Into the Gloss began as the primary sales driver for Glossier’s line of makeup and accessories. A newly-minted unicorn, Glossier.com‘s 2.6 million monthly visitors now arrive from a sustainable blend of customer acquisition methods: organic traffic through Into The Gloss and Instagram, paid search, Facebook / Instagram advertising, and a quiet affiliate deal with BuzzFeed. Here is Emily Weiss on Glossier’s growth:

We are building an entirely new kind of beauty company: one that owns the distribution channel and makes customers our stakeholders. By connecting directly with consumers, Glossier has access to endless inspiration for new products.

A Version Five in the making

Curating an audience is an involved process with long tail benefits and short-term headaches; marketing executives have long underestimated the value of this approach to community development and marketing. In this way, several digital publishers are ahead of the curve. 2PM recently spoke with Front Office Sports on Erika Nardini’s plans at Barstool Sports. Nardini on her recent product launch:

Golf is appealing because we love golf, and we have young fans who love golf the way we do. We try to have fun with everything we do and to approach stuff in a way that’s easy-going and approachable. The Barstool Classic is a great example of that.

With a long history of direct to consumer merchandise, their amateur version of pay-per-view sports, and a successful subscription membership under their belts, the edgy media company launched their third commerce offering – and another way to monetize the nearly nine million monthly visitors and hundreds of thousands of daily listeners who’ve propelled several Barstool podcasts to top ten sports charts. Barstool Classics is the media brand’s first foray into high dollar events, and it begins where this report started – with golf.

As media and commerce continue to meet along the line, the primary KPI is similar for both industries: do the visitors transact? At $600 per ticket, Barstool’s marketing team is betting that: a) they understand their audience and b) the audience will eagerly pay Barstool to express their support. In this way, DTC linear commerce concepts are akin to those fabled pro shops at Augusta National. And for challenger brands looking toward sustainability, there is a lot to learn from these examples. Audience-driven businesses have figured out how to monetize their visitors by providing value that captures attention. The alternative is paying the audience to show up at your party – a cost that is rising by the year.

Read the No. 314 curation here.

Report by Web Smith | About 2PM