Member Brief: A Curation of Forecasts (2023)

There’s always the choice between locking back or peering forward. For 2023, we broke off the rearview and de-iced the windshield because this curation of forecasts by top banking institutions may help manage the numerous macroeconomic influences that lie ahead for retail, advertising, logistics, real estate, and eCommerce.

A problem becomes a crisis when our failure to address it threatens one’s identity; a polycrisis is when multiple problems interact with one another, potentially amplifying the sum of its parts in unpredictable ways. Popularized by Columbia University’s Adam Tooze, I suspect that it will become a word that may rise in popularity in 2023. It was former U.S. Treasury Secretary he recently commented:

This is the most complex, disparate and cross-cutting set of challenges that I can remember in the 40 years that I have been paying attention to such things.

While the study of a polycrisis requires a larger view of global economics and its many forces, we have drilled down on how each may impact the industries relevant to this group of industry leaders. These forces include: the Omicron variant, stagflation risk, nuclear escalation, Eurozone’s debt crisis risk, wage growth exceeding forecasts, U.S. inflation, European inflation, the Fed, the Biden administration, Russian gas boycott, conflict between Russia / Ukraine / United States, China, Italian government’s “intense pressure”, and German government’s “intense pressure.” We’ve learned over the previous few years that that each geography can play a role in the sum of its parts. We are too interdependent to suspect otherwise. The Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal and it affected you, one Chinese province’s COVID lockdown affected you. The Renasas Electronics factory fire led to 23 damaged machines; the impact was felt internationally.

The idea is to understand the potential of future supply shocks and other influences that could disrupt or encourage the industries most relevant to you. As we’ve seen, the “butterfly effect” is real.

According to UMASS-Amherst economist Isabella Weber, there are sectors that are most sensitive to shocks: “Among these, petroleum and coal products were the most sensitive to shocks. Oil and gas extraction, chemical products, farms, food and beverage and housing also featured highly.” As global emergencies overlap, supply shocks have become more common and inflation has lingered on. It’s never been more important to understand how sector-specific data (and the overlapping of other sectors) impacts the sum of all parts. And then, secondarily, impacts you.

In general, retailers may be forced to adapt to changing consumer behavior and economic conditions in order to weather overlapping crises. This may involve implementing new technologies or processes to facilitate online sales, reducing costs, or offering new products or services to meet the needs of consumers. It is important for retailers to stay informed about the evolving situation and to be proactive in addressing any challenges that may arise. As such, we’ve compiled 18 reports from banks and funds with a key excerpt from each document along and a link with access.

Goldman Sachs: Economic Research

Macro Outlook 2023: This Cycle is Different

As shown in Exhibit 3, we estimate a 35% probability that the US economy enters recession over the next 12 months, well below the median of 65% among the forecasters in the latest Wall Street Journal survey and toward the bottom of the range.

J.P. Morgan: Market Insights

A bad year for the economy, a better year for markets

For attractively valued emerging markets to shine in 2023, at least one of these three featured catalysts need to occur. We strongly believe that central banks will be less restrictive in 2023, but certain political outcomes, such as the end of China’s zero-Covid policy, or a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, remain very uncertain.

Morgan Stanley: 2023 Investment Outlook

Applying the Lessons of a Turbulent Year to 2023

Global supply chain realignments, demographic change, debt deleveraging and a structural shift toward a consumption-led economy will be key trends for China in 2023. Manufacturing and trade are becoming less important in driving economic activity partly because of reduced offshoring by Western companies and rising wage costs in China.

Bank of America: Outlook 2023

Back to the (new) future

Michael Hartnett: I don’t think you can immediately say we’re going back to QE or zero rates, I mean that era’s not coming back, but what you can say is a lot of the assets that were penalized greatly in 2022, there’s been a lot of, if you like, creative destruction, more destruction than creation. But hopefully the valuations now a little bit more settled and these growth themes over the medium term can actually start to — you can start to sort of action on them.

Blackrock: 2023 Global Outlook

A new investment playbook

This is the most fraught geopolitical environment since WW II, in our view. The world is splitting up into competing blocs that pursue self-reliance.

HSBC: Global Private Banking

Looking for the silver lining

In recent years, wider security risks to physical assets and their supply lines have reappeared with many goods including food, water and energy. Governments and companies are trying to mitigate the effects by increasing inventories, diversifying sources and supply chains, investing in alternative energy and developing more local capabilities.

Barclays: Corporate and Investment Bank

Living with shock and awe: 2023 Global Outlook

2023 may well be one of the slowest years for global growth in decades. Our analysts expect the world to grow at 1.7% next year, a big slowdown from the 6%+ growth of 2021 and a significant drop from the 3.2% growth expected for 2022. Inflation will likely fall slowly, with consumer prices worldwide rising at a 4.6% average next year.

NatWest: The Year Ahead 2023

Essential insights into the big themes fuelling the outlook

We believe that monetary policy tightening cycles have a little further to run, although there have already been some hints that policymakers are becoming less aggressive. We forecast the Fed Funds rate will climb to a terminal rate of 5.0% in mid-2023, slightly below the 5.1% peak that the market is pricing in.

Citi: Wealth Outlook 2023

Roadmap to recovery: portfolios to anticipate opportunities

Despite recent performance, though, the digital revolution has not gone into reverse. Indeed, these technologies are becoming ever more deeply embedded in how we live and work. In the years ahead, we expect intensifying innovation driven by well-funded research and development. And we believe that businesses will have to either embrace new technologies and processes or face extinction. Put simply, the unstoppable trend of digitization remains in full force.

BNP Paribas: The Investment Outlook for 2023

Investing in an age of transformation

Though these worries have driven some large companies to cut their sourcing from or manufacturing operations in Asia and to shift them elsewhere, we see no largescale decoupling from either the region or from China.

Credit Suisse: Investment Outlook 2023

Supertrends – Diversify your risks

Our Millennials’ values Supertrend is set to benefit from long-term demographic patterns, as the young cohort in Asia in particular will dominate consumption and drive digital trends like social media, streaming, online shopping and fintech. Importantly, this generation has a long-term focus on the world of tomorrow, supporting biodiversity, the circular economy and health and nutrition

UBS: Asset Management

Investing through change: picture the opportunities

We acknowledge that the near-term macro outlook is unusually uncertain. But regardless of what 2023 brings, we believe the inflation, growth, and geopolitical factors that have caused market strife in 2022 are increasing the potential rewards for medium- and long-term investors willing to bear these risks. This is the good news about bad markets.

ING: global economic outlook 2023

May he live in interesting times

Our base case scenario remains that inflation in the developed economies will return to around 2% in 2024. However, this is no reason for relief and could be a very short-lived experience. In the longer term, structural shifts in the global economy are likely to push up costs and hence inflation. Deglobalisation – the restructuring of supply chains but also new trade barriers – presents new costs for corporates. Climate change and the transition to net zero will also initially push up costs for energy and commodities and will lead to more volatile inflation over the coming years.

Apollo: 2023 Economic Markets Outlook

A soft landing is possible

Here’s another situation that will surely need to unwind: A growing disconnect between earnings expectations for S&P 500 companies and overall GDP growth (Exhibit 26). It’s more likely that earnings expectations, which have been stubbornly high, will need to come down than it is for GDP growth forecasts to rise. While we are increasingly confident that the Fed might engineer a soft landing, we are still facing an economic slowdown.

Wells Fargo: Investment Institute

Recession, recovery, and rebound

We enter 2023 with an unfavorable rating on REITs overall; a favorable rating on Self-storage REITs, Retail REITs, and Data Centers REITs; and an unfavorable rating on Residential sub-industry REITs (Apartment, Single Family Home and Manufactured Homes), Office REITs, and Health Care REITs.

BNY Mellon: 2023 Outlook

Looking through to recovery

Inflation appears to have peaked, which will eventually enable central banks to slow the pace of rate hikes and ultimately shift into a holding pattern. However, risks have now shifted to the lagged impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening on economic growth and earnings.

Lazard Asset Management

Competition is fierce but quality companies that reinvest in themselves can stay on top.

In their view, the critical issues of the past 12 months—inflation, monetary policy, and the risk of recession—are likely to remain front and center, though in a different configuration over 2023. Inflation pressures, which dominated the markets in 2022, have, in our view, likely peaked across most developed economies.

And this is the report that influenced our focus on the polycrisis. It is well-written and insightful in ways that others are but Fidelity’s narrative was far less mechanical and more narrative-driven based on all available data.

Fidelity International: Navigating the polycrisis

Sustainability premia set to increase

Prices for air, sea, and land freight are falling and the backlogs created by Covid lockdowns are easing, which may help to soften the blow on consumption. The gradual removal of quarantine restrictions globally has boosted investor confidence, with China now the only major economy where significant requirements are still in place. Further relaxation there would remove a distinct hurdle for both China and the global economy.

Ideally, we will continue to add to this running list of investment prospectuses and macroeconomic outlooks. It’s never been more imperative for companies – new and old – to consider how their top and bottom lines are impacted by variables that are out of their control. The reaction and perspectives are in one’s control, education helps those useful reactions possible.

This member brief has been unlocked until January 1, 2023. To gain access to our archives + insights and curations like these, consider joining the Executive Membership

By Web Smith | Art by Alex Remy

Memo: Taylor Sheridan and His DTC Gamble

A former journeyman actor created one of the highest-potential modern brands and online marketplaces of today and he may not have to spend much on traditional advertising or paid marketing at all.

Taylor Sheridan, the creator of Yellowstone, created a multimedia universe like no one in or around Hollywood. With the launch of 6666steak.com (and 6666gritandglory.com), he has a new way to monetize his love for the American west. What better than steaks and beer?

Sheridan is a creative phenom by any measure. The former ‘Sons of Anarchy’ and ‘Veronica Mars’ actor set aside his “failed acting career” to focus on telling tales from the modern American frontier (as he likes to frame it) while sharing those stories through the lens of how the past meets the present. The actor became a real name in Hollywood by hastily writing the screenplay for ‘Sicario’ (2015) in just four months and then having it in production shortly thereafter. He went on to write ‘Hell or High Water’ in 2016. For the former, he earned wide critical and commercial success. For the latter, he received an Academy Award nod for best original screenplay.

Born to a Texas ranching family, Sheridan leveraged his success of his first two films and the third critical success: ‘Wind River.’ The success of the three went on to establish a deal with Paramount Networks to develop a show inspired by the culture and calling he felt closest: ranching. The script that he co-created ended up becoming ‘Yellowstone.’ Widely considered one of the most popular scripted shows, the season five premiere earned 12.1 same day million viewers. No other scripted show has earned over eight million same-day viewers, this season. Sheridan maintains a prolific pace of writing stories on death, revenge, love, grief, and envy. Somewhat Shakespearean in his pace of production and his subject matter, ‘Yellowstone’ has been referred to as “King Lear in a Stetson.”(Collider, 2022).

With Yellowstone’s critical and commercial successes has come other projects; Paramount Network greenlit ‘1883’, ‘1923’, and ‘Yellowstone: 6666.’ Each are spin-offs designed to build on Yellowstone’s success (‘1883’ and ‘1923’ are prequels to the original series). Sheridan has also written ‘Mayor of Kingstown’ and ‘Tulsa King’ as standalone stories – both maintain his go-to themes of death, revenge, love, grief, and envy. Another series based on 19th century African-American lawman Bass Reeves (1883: The Bass Reeves Story) is set to begin shooting principle photography soon.

In five short years, Sheridan has developed an unparalleled film and television media empire. Now, he’s added commerce into the fold. And as you will read, his approach is high stakes.

In a recent conversation between 2PM and a separate, American media CEO: the business leader suggested that his company could launch a new media vertical and then acquire brands that merchandised products that would appeal to the fans of the media company. He wanted to turn viewers into consumers and consumers into customers. His suggestion felt revelatory to him; though it’s been done countless times. But never quite like this. Sheridan’s DTC gamble shares the spirit of this three year old report on linear commerce like few others before it:

The lines of demarcation between media and commerce are fading. For the brands that are most suited to the modern retail economy: media and commerce operations work to optimize for audience and sales conversion. This is the efficient path for sustained growth, retention, and profitability. Brands will develop publishing as a core competency, and publishers will develop retail operations as a core competency.

In that same report, I explained how the 130 year old Michelin star system may be one of the best examples of linear commerce. The principle behind the annual, fine dining publication was that Michelin would sell more tires by giving fine dining aficionados a reason to travel to more restaurants. As the concept went: burnt rubber and memorable dining moments meant more loyalty to (and use of) the Michelin brand of tires.

Over 120 years later and we’re still buying Michelin tires (or tyres, depending on where you’re from). It’s a similar age old problem that Sheridan is seeking to address with 6666steak.com.

Sheridan’s crown jewel, ‘Yellowstone’ is in its fifth and final season. The narrative is at a crossroads with John Dutton III on the verge of losing the legacy that his five-generation ranching family built before him. The finale of the ‘1883’ prequel foreshadowed this issue. An American Indian tribal leader named Spotted Eagle agreed to allow the first-generation of the Duttons to settle on its Montana lands. Spotted Eagle noted that his people would rise up and take it back in seven generations to which the Dutton family patriarch and pioneer responded, “You can have it.”

This season of the show features many of the fifth, sixth, and seventh generations of the Dutton family. In addition to the looming 119 year old omen of loss: there is politics, and social pressures, and the usual drama found on American television. Season five introduced a new focus on the economics of cattle supply and demand. In one scene, John and his daughter, Beth, discuss the astronomical costs of moving his herd of cattle to land away from a festering brucellosis infection that seems to be spreading throughout the herd. She asks him to sell the cows and he replied that a cow is worth $1.50 per pound. His daughter scoffed:

A good steak, she points out, can go for $30. Hamburger is, at worst, $5 a pound. Why is the ranch getting garbage money for its cattle when there’s money to be made in beef?

John replied that he “sells cattle, not beef.” And goes on to explain that his model has worked for over 100 years. In the final season of television’s most popular show, one that will end with a major change, the business of cattle is the focus. Sheridan is intentional about exploring whether or not the Dutton operation can modernize enough to survive in a different (um…DTC) form. According to Beth, maximizing profitability in the cattle ranching industry means going vertical and selling the product of cattle and not just the animals themselves. The lucrative products: loin, rib, brisket, and flank cuts are far more valuable to consumers than the whole of the cattle themselves.

Source: MTV Studios

For fans of Sheridan’s work, this scene was meta at best and cringe at worst. It was native advertising but it broke the fourth wall in a way that was abrupt and desperate. But the advertising worked and here I am writing about an online retail operation that I have watched over recent months. The episode made it clear that Four Sixes Reserve Steak wasn’t an offshoot of the 6666 Ranch business, it was the future of the ranch (and quickly earning Sheridan a return on investment). Beth was intentional in handing over the Macbook Pro screen with the example of going direct on it. It was the direct-to-consumer steak retailer of the ranch that Sheridan finalized the purchase of in early 2022:

The legendary Four Sixes Ranch (often written as the 6666 Ranch) was recently sold for just under $200 million to a group that’s believed to be led by Yellowstone creator Taylor Sheridan. Initial listings show that the owners sought more than $340 million for the 143,000-acre property.

With the acquisition of 6666 Ranch, Sheridan acquired three assets at once: the credibility that comes along with owning a 150 year old Texas ranch, a set for filming shows and movies that require expansive horizons and prairie lands, and a larger canvas upon which to use his vast, creative influence. The closing episodes of the show’s final season will be focused on moving Yellowstone from an aging model to a modern one. While in real life, Sheridan and his team of investors are doing the same for the legendary and historic ranch that he now owns. Yellowstone’s 60 second native advertisement was Sheridan’s first attempt at getting the word out at scale.

The Four Sixes Ranch isn’t Sheridan’s first rodeo (he’s an accomplished horse breeder) but the bet he’s making with this integration between art and retail is one with countless implications. Sheridan is going all in on the cattle raising and marketing business at a time when the industry is rife with turmoil between suppliers, packers, and their consumers.

The Academy Award-nominated writer will be joining NCBA as the keynote speaker for the 2023 Cattle Industry Convention and Trade Show’s opening session. The NCBA is “the voice of U.S. Cattlemen and Women.” Sheridan will be the rare celebrity that walks the convention’s halls but he will be a welcomed presence and his positioning with Four Sixes Reserve means he’s also an advocate for cattlemen of large and small ranches. No one in modern media has shed more light on the culture of ranchers and the “modern west” as Sheridan has. He’s glamorized the industry while casting a bright light on its struggles and sorrows. Sheridan has spent seven years building the credibility required to stand alongside legitimate cattlemen and the organizations (like the NCBA) that advocate for them:

We sit at the intersection of all of these different takes on what to do with the spread that we’ve seen over the last couple years — the disparity between packer margins and producer margins on cattle.

Now, he will try to galvanize them around his real world plans. There is a political risk for Sheridan. At the core of the Four Ranches DTC operation is an effort to address one of the many issues tolerated by producers who drive the American-sourced beef industry. In July 2022, wholesale food distributor Sysco filed a lawsuit against the four companies responsible for processing over 80% of the domestic cattle market according to Food Business News:

Beginning as early as 2015, the meat processors “exploited their market power in this highly concentrated market by conspiring to limit the supply, and fix the prices, of beef sold to Plaintiff in the US wholesale market,” the lawsuit alleged.

JBS, Cargill, National Beef, and Tyson deny any allegations of price fixing. Sheridan’s DTC bet is larger than the traditional narrative of direct-to-consumer success or failure – in some ways, his direct-to-consumer efforts puts him in competition with the four processors. At the NCBA, Sheridan will work to rally the dozens of other cattle-producing and / or processing operations, many of whom are pursuing DTC marketing as opportunities for themselves (here is a growing list).

Sheridan is betting that his media empire and shameless (fourth-wall breaking) native advertising can help suppliers by providing them a new marketing vein to sell more of what they directly supply without the big four who own 80+% of the processing industry. The Four Sixes website all but says this is the case: “We are proud to offer the Four Sixes Ranch Brand beef, which is sourced from a network of ranches, including our own, that meet grading, marbling and tenderness qualifications.”

Sheridan’s final season of ‘Yellowstone’ will explore the business model of DTC meat. It’s likely that the ensuing spinoff ‘Yellowstone: 6666 Ranch’ will double down on the changing economics of the industry. For the first time, Sheridan will give his fans the ability to play along in the story. When Beth picked up the phone to call the merchandiser at 6666 Ranch, the gentleman mentioned “we’ve sold 8 million pounds of beef this year.” While that was likely fictional, it’s a reasonable first-year mark given Sheridan’s reach and growing popularity. At $5 – $30 per pound and 8 million units moved, that goal would make Four Sixes Reserve a serious DTC business. One of the fastest growing, ever. The kind that could save a seventh generation ranch, a fictional one or otherwise.

By Web Smith | Art by Alex Remy  

Additional reading (very fascinating): Assessing Economic Impact That Would Follow Loss of US Beef Exports and Imports

Member Brief: Free Speech and Elon Musk

Chaos has descended upon Twitter at the hands of its unpredictable leader, Elon Musk. As the events unfold in real time – as of Friday afternoon, the tweets are still coming – it’s a missed opportunity as much as anything else.

This member brief is designed exclusively for Executive Members, to make membership easy, you can click below and gain access to hundreds of reports, our DTC Power List, and other tools to help you make high level decisions.

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