备忘录净化城市化

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有加速。有发明。还有中断。今天，我们正在同时驾驭这三者。

美国经济的数字化正在使消费者倾向于网上零售。这是一种加速趋势。像 Zoom 这样的小众产品，吸引了工作场所、家庭和社会团体的关注，成为了定义大流行的技术。还有宏观经济趋势的干扰 。大西洋月刊》的德里克-汤普森（Derek Thompson）预测了城市零售和餐饮业中断的影响。

我们正在进入一个新的零售进化阶段，在这个阶段，大公司将变得越来越大，许多母婴店的梦想将破灭，连锁店将大量涌现，使许多社区的特色变得平淡无奇，更多的经济活动将流向电子商务，而餐饮业将经历一场自禁酒令以来从未有过的变革。[1]

他的报告写于 2020 年 5 月，当时正值美国零售业倒闭的高峰期，报告描绘了一幅灰暗的图景，我当时并不同意。德里克-汤普森是对的。一些城市、公司和组织已经设法进行了调整。比如，布鲁克林的威廉斯堡掌握了户外座位。露露柠檬（Lululemon）和苹果（Apple）等公司都严格执行了社会距离规定。而美国国家篮球协会已经证明，在接触性运动中管理病毒性疾病是可行的。

但是，还有一个更大的干扰需要考虑，即短期影响让位于长期影响。曾经定义农村、郊区和城市空间的特征正在发生变化，它们之间的界限也越来越模糊。这将给我们的生活和购物方式带来长期变化。在为Polymathic Audio 第 8 期进行的 2PM 对话中，汤普森开宗明义地说道：

我走在街上，左顾右盼，看到的是一排排漆黑的橱窗。我大声问自己："这些商店中，哪家会在六个月或十二个月后重新开张？"[下午2点2分]

这取决于你住在哪里。二线城市（想想纳什维尔、哥伦布、夏洛特或匹兹堡）的生活充满了神秘感，拥有 "大城市 "的城市体验，商业房地产开发商因此在城市更新方面下了重注。

乔治-华盛顿大学商学院和美国智能增长协会（Smart Growth America）最近与 Yardi Matrix 联合对美国最大的 30 个大都市进行的一项研究发现，在过去十年中，与没有这种组合的城市相比，包含办公、住房、零售和娱乐的步行街区增长更快，吸纳量和租金增长也更高。在此期间，70% 的工作岗位是在美国排名前 50 的大都市中创造的。[6]

在这种情况下，开发商会夷平被认为价值较低的现有房产，建造豪华的多用途房产。在美国中西部，曾经充斥着价值 600 美元的公寓或独户住宅的地区被重新开发成吸引千禧一代和 Z 世代年轻消费者的生活空间。大量涌入的人力资本现在支持着商业更新（想想：先有受众，再有产品）。令人垂涎的餐厅、更好的酒吧和更精致的商店纷纷涌现。这些零售业的投资者和所有者都将赌注押在了流动性和合格的客流量上。随着该地区执法力度的加强，城市将保护这些新的投资区域，使其免受一年前存在的其余因素的影响。

随着这一进程的继续，商业开发商的胆子也越来越大。他们最大限度地利用了已经处于转型期的城市中心区域。但随着地方、州和国家的发展势头转向城市重建（与之相匹配的是就业市场），他们下了更大的赌注。于是，他们在尚未开始转型的地区建造豪华的多功能地产。这些濒临危险的城市片区开发难度更大，但提前开发的回报也更高。这既是一个良性循环，也是一场豪赌。

有三个供应方面的考虑促成了前几年的城市改造：

  • 人力资本（人口密度）
  • 低失业率
  • 实体零售需求（品牌和餐饮投资兴趣）

城市开始出现各类供方需求不足的问题。这将表现为美国城市化趋势代价高昂的中断。如果这种中断持续足够长的时间，教科书上对城市化的定义就会嘎然而止。

人力资本

远程工作行业的加速发展必将推动城市化进程的中断。J.D. Power 最近的一项脉搏调查发现，三分之一（35%）的受访者计划在未来三个月内进行家庭装修项目。在这些调查中，40% 的人将 "意外增加的在家时间 "作为项目的原因。对于那些有能力的人来说，居住在市区租赁房产的动机已开始转向郊区投资。在 31 个跟踪调查的都市区中，有 14 个都市区的郊区住宅投资已开始超过城市更新的成果。

在全国范围内，市区销售价格的降幅比郊区高出 6 个百分点。在冠状病毒爆发前，郊区销售价格中位数同比增长 6.4%，市区销售价格中位数同比增长 9.3%。到 6 月底，价格增长率分别降至 3.3% 和 0%。在全国范围内，销售价格中位数的同比增长已放缓至约 2%。[5]

这一趋势受到了远程工作的广泛影响。Salesforce 宣布，到 8 月 21 日，员工将可以在家工作。

Salesforce 还扩大了员工的远程办公福利，在今年早些时候为员工提供 250 美元办公用品的基础上，又为每人提供了 250 美元。父母还可以选择多休六周的带薪休假。[3]

脸书、微软、亚马逊、谷歌等公司以及其他传统上引领全球技术劳动力发展的大型企业也纷纷效仿。从历史上看，这些工作岗位增加了整个一、二线城市及其城市中心的人力资本来源。

低失业率

美国国税局最近预测，2021 年基于 W-2 的 "雇员分类 "工作岗位将减少 3720 万个[4]。他们还预测，到 2027 年，W-2 申请量将有所下降。对于那些保住了工作的人来说，向郊区转移的意图已导致许多公司剥离实体零售、餐饮和其他消费型投资。经济学家认为，临时性裁员将成为永久性裁员。

"布里格斯总结道："我们的分析表明，近四分之一的临时裁员将成为永久性裁员，这意味着这些人中大约有 200 万人（占劳动力总数的 1.25%）将在明年继续失业。[8]

实体零售需求

最近有消息称，时尚零售平台 Rent the Runway 永久关闭了四家零售店。这些实体店面均位于城市地区。在 Bonobos 和 Warby Parker 等零售商的推动下，经过长达十年的趋势发展，直接面向消费者的品牌（以及咖啡店和独立酒吧）成为可靠的信号来源。随着这些品牌进入新焕发生机的街区，传统零售商、餐馆也很快跟进。

与许多斥巨资鼓励这种转型的城市一样，俄亥俄州测试城也开始出现裂痕，那里的城市酒店开发速度创下了历史新高。

数据分析公司 Trepp 的数据显示，截至 7 月份，哥伦布大都会区的 17 笔 CMBS 酒店贷款中有近 40% 出现拖欠，债务总额达 8700 万美元。根据 Trepp 的数据，在全美范围内，拖欠率为 23.4%，创下历史最高纪录。[7]

这些都是需要考虑的大量信息。但在这些趋势的交汇处，似乎有一个明显的受益者。随着汽车保有量的减少和远程办公的兴起，受益的郊区已将其区域发展成类似于城市中心的城市要求。

净化城市化

多中心开发是一种交通连接、城市规划、混合用途开发和先进设计理念的模式。观点专栏作家诺亚-史密斯最近为彭博社撰写了以下文章：

"郊区 "在 20 世纪 70 年代的含义已不尽相同。当时，这个词让人联想到商场、被宽阔草坪隔开的单户住宅和同质化的白人人口。为了吸引今天的都市人，郊区必须提供一些与众不同的东西。[8]

这些加速、中断和发明的结果是一种新的郊区发展分类，随着年轻收入者不断逃离城市，这种分类将变得更加普遍。用更亲切的话来说 净化城市化将城市更新的精华部分移植到中上层阶级和富裕的郊区。俄亥俄州都柏林的大桥公园（Bridge Park ）就是多中心开发的典范，这里有会员俱乐部、现代化酒店和顶级餐厅：

我们所建设的社区，重点是让您--居民、游客和行动派--能够方便地步行前往餐厅、零售服务、便利设施、公园、自行车道、桥梁、健身中心等。[10]

从更直观的角度来看，这一概念是将城市生活与郊区的 "排他性 "利益并列起来。净化城市化消除了居住在城市地区的风险，同时增加了基础设施升级、学校改善和税基降低等价值。一旦城市开始遭受远离城市中心的人口迁移所带来的全部影响，这很可能会成为一个政治化的问题。这方面的早期迹象已经显现：自大流行病开始以来，街道和人行道的维护一直很差。大部分独立餐厅和零售店都在这些地区倒闭，从而降低了这些地区的吸引力。许多像哥伦布这样的大城市在 8 个月内遭受了 1-2-3 重创：大流行病、社会动荡、失业率升高和无家可归者增多，恢复起来十分缓慢。

其结果可能是，一代又一代人重新回到与城市发展相似的郊区：这些地区现在配备了与繁华大城市常见的多用途公寓、外部地标、购物、餐饮和步行便利性。这种郊区环形大道是美国购物中心建筑师的最初构想。维克多-格鲁恩（Victor Gruen）在 20 世纪 50 年代的明尼苏达州提出了这些包罗万象的开发项目。

[维克多-格鲁恩（Victor Gruen）对城镇中心风格的零售中心（灵感来自维也纳的环形大街）充满了灵感和未来主义的理想主义，但却被他无法预料的社会经济动荡所掩盖。[2PM, 9］

零售商现在有能力在大都市的更大范围内提供服务，可以在新的地区集中实体店，而不需要大卖场或容纳它们的购物中心。从某种程度上说，美国郊区终于有能力发展格鲁恩在 20 世纪 50 年代为最初的美国购物中心提出理想时所设想的业态。随着电子商务基础设施的普及和多中心开发的优先发展，郊区将更像城市。而零售商也将紧随其后。

报道：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes |关于 2PM

 

备忘录：拯救美国邮政

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There are three types of infrastructure. One is visible: roads, dams and bridges. The second is invisible: broadband internet provisions and the entirety of our cellular infrastructure. Both are still vital in building our present. The third form of infrastructure is one being rebuilt in order to be repurposed for future use. I explained in J-Curves and Agglomeration:

The U.S. Postal Service is a key component of the eCommerce economy. Packages are just 5% of its shipping volume but eCommerce accounts for nearly 30% of the agency’s revenue. Partnerships with vendors like Amazon (or providers like FedEx and UPS) provide a majority of its package volume but small businesses and direct-to-consumer brands rely on USPS’ pricing. Raising costs on retailers may lead to more attrition. […]

By raising prices to combat Amazon’s growing influence over the economy, disrupting the postal economy is no different than digging up paved roads before a period of heightened freight transit. [2PM, 1]

The U.S. Postal Service is all three. When an American institution is 250 years old, it may as well be the ground that we stand on. The service has contributed services and innovations that we don’t readily attribute to it. Consider its contribution to the middle class: the U.S. Postal Service is one the country’s biggest employers with nearly 330,000 career employees and an average salary of $50,000. They are building the future of eCommerce, a still-nascent industry.

Critics of the USPS will cite cost of labor as a reason for the service’s obsolescence. A common refrain is “Why couldn’t Amazon takeover the service?” Consider that in the fourth quarter of 2019, eCommerce was just 11.9% of all retail. Amazon constituted right under half of that volume. And without the postal service, Amazon would not exist. The market costs of shipment subsidized a number of Amazon’s operations, allowing it to capture market share.

“The Ground We Stand On”

The postal service began before the founding of the United States. Benjamin Franklin was fired from his role as postmaster due to his involvement with the American Revolution. Just one year later in 1775, the Continental Congress appointed Franklin the Postmaster General of the “United Colonies.” His tenure left a mail system that offered service between the then-colonies and Great Britain. By 1802, the first African-Americans to work for the Postal Service were enslaved mail carriers. Senator James Jackson of Georgia, Chairman of the Committee of the Senate on the Post Office Establishment, once wrote:

… The most active and intelligent [slaves] are employed as post riders. By travelling from day to day, and hourly mixing with people […] they will acquire information. They will learn that a man’s rights do not depend on his color. They will, in time, become teachers to their brethren.

Within two months of Senator Jackson’s proclamation, African-Americans would be banned from the postal service, lasting from 1802 to March 1865, just one month before the conclusion of the Civil War. This disbarment ended by congressional decree.

No person, by reason of color, shall be disqualified from employment in carrying the mails. (13 Stat. 515)

The next decades would see an unparalleled push for African-American financial stability. Nearly 800 would serve as postal employees prior to the 20th century. More than 200 African Americans are known to have served in the high rank of postmaster prior to the conclusion of Reconstruction and the Progressive Era (1863-1920). Of them, nearly 20 were women. The postal service has always been politicized.

Soon after, the U.S. Government expanded on the postal service’s role in democratizing America, both literally and figuratively. President Theodore “Teddy” Roosevelt expanded on this with the Square Deal in 1902, communicating a fairness policy in hiring and leadership. The result was momentous for many. Roosevelt stated:

It is and should be my consistent policy in every State, where their numbers warranted it, to recognize colored men of good repute and standing in making appointments to office. […] I can not consent to take the position that the door of hope – the door of opportunity – is to be shut upon any man, no matter how worthy, purely upon the grounds of race or color. [2]

Today, 21% (or nearly 70,000) of the agency’s employees are African-American. However, the postal service was consequential beyond matters of social equity. By 1823, the U.S. Postal Service and the U.S. Government established 80,000 miles of “post roads” to help carriers navigate new rural areas. By 1860, these roads connected nearly 28,000 post offices. Today, the postal service maintains nearly 40,000 post offices, clearing 212 billion letters and mail to 144 million homes.

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Save the @USPS.There is no institution more critical to the next phases of our commerce economy.

Today, the service is tasked with another generational shift: supporting online retail. The pandemic shifted the American consumer towards online retail, this while reducing the number of units shipped. As such, companies like UPS and FedEx have responded by hiking prices. In response to USPS’ distress, FedEx recently stated:

The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted mail volumes and mix resulting in a further decrease in revenues and negative financial impact for the USPS. Additionally, the USPS continues to experience budgetary uncertainty as well as increased political debate regarding potential privatization or restructuring of its operations.

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The most popular government sites: June 18, 2020

Cost inflation is the most concerning obstacle ahead for digitally native retailers. Without the treatment that the United States’ oldest civilian service afforded Amazon in its infancy, it will be more difficult to build more businesses of Amazon’s scale. The economics were difficult enough as is; these added costs will only add pressure to pass along costs to consumers, many of whom are facing down one of the most economically vulnerable periods since 2008. We should consider the postal service an investment into our present and future and a monument to our past.

If our economy is to begin addressing the shortfalls caused by the overwhelming contraction in the traditional retail industry, it will need the support of the postal service. For eCommerce, their service is the industry’s last mile for thousands of direct-to-consumer small businesses. The postal service uniquely sits at the intersection of our physical roads and our digital infrastructure. There isn’t a direct substitute and we shouldn’t wait to find out the hard way. Save the USPS. We will need more companies like the successful hundreds that were built on its 250 year old infrastructure. That includes Amazon.

By Web Smith | Editor: Hilary Milnes | Art by Alex Remy | About 2PM

备忘录失败的基本要素

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On supply constraints and leading indicators. We have never seen such volatility as what November 2020 is shaping up to bring. To understand it, we have to go back 101 years to the depression that we rarely discuss (1920-1921).

We focused on the wrong war in those years. We are focusing on the wrong war now.

Just four years old, the Great War (WWI) shared attention with the Spanish Influenza by 1918. In the United States, President Woodrow Wilson made no public statements with regard to the Spanish Influenza. Rather, the 28th President and his administration focused on boosting morale and national wartime cooperation. According to the U.S. President, there was a war to win and there was no tolerance for distraction. Here he spoke of a military campaign and not a ravaging pandemic.

Wilson arrived in France in December of 1918 to take part in six months of peace negotiations in France. By then, the disease had killed 50-100 million globally, with a death toll that reached 675,000 in America. The world’s real war was fought in hospitals, not in battlefields. Wilson’s own experiences would prove so. Despite a wildly shared sentiment to slow transmission by wearing a mask, you won’t find a single image of Wilson or his delegation complying with these norms. These men were credited with ending one of the World’s Wars but they ignored the other.

France and Britain tried to appease Wilson by consenting to the establishment of his League of Nations. However, because isolationist sentiment was strong in the United States, and some of the articles in the League’s charter conflicted with the United States Constitution, the United States never did ratify the Treaty of Versailles nor join the League of Nations. [1]

Within the year, President Wilson contracted the same strain of the influenza and within months, he’d suffer from a debilitating stroke that incapacitated him for the rest of his life. Notably weakened by the influenza, Wilson notably agreed with French demands that would set the groundwork for yet another war. The final year of Wilson’s term brought a depression that we rarely cite (1920-1921). Beginning in January 1920, the Axe-Houghton Index of Trade and Industrial Activity cited a volume of business decline of 28.6%. Globally, the GDP fell 6-8% in this time. The end of Wilson’s term would see a man who found (a temporary) resolution to the Great War while being leveled by an even greater one. He left office in March of 1921.

A 2012 academic paper by Keynesian economist Daniel Keuhn cited the downsizing of government (and the services that it can provide) as one of the factors that led to the 1920-1921 depression. But more importantly, he felt that supply constraints were the majority of the issue:

The evidence suggests that the 1920–21 depression was the result of a variety of supply constraints, rather than a deficiency of effective demand, and is therefore a poor test of the efficacy of Keynesian fiscal policy. [2]

Supply constraints can be cited as infrastructure shortages: (1) a lack of debt available to businesses, (2) an inadequate labor market, (3) inadequate technology, (4) government fundamentals, (5) and international supply chain inefficiency. We focused on the wrong war in those years. We are focusing on the wrong war, now. I will cite each of the above supply constraint concerns with the (x) format.

Small business is the engine for American growth and the predictability of government services is the frame that the engine sits upon. Both the engine and the mount are at risk, moving into a period of economic uncertainty that rivals the conclusion of Wilson’s second term.

The American credit system is complex. To account for that, I will cite an illuminating 24-part thread by a pseudonymous American lawyer and consultant whose business is facilitating debt for franchisees. This excerpt stood out:

The chains I work with many of you will be familiar with: Dominos, Jersey Mike’s, Massage Envy, European Wax Center, The Joint, Club Pilates, Jimmy John’s, Wingston, Orangetheory, Moe’s Southwest and many others. I have broad spectrum national exposure to many industries.

I fund $400-500 million in loans per year through these banks. In February we were on pace to fund well over $500 million and potentially $750 million — growing exponentially year over year. Since April 1st we have funded $5 million (in loans) through only two banks.

Retail franchises (1) are of the most predictable cash flow businesses in America. The lack of debt available to owners is noteworthy and as shortfalls in foot traffic continue to impact retail real estate, the franchise business seems due to exacerbate these concerns. Once considered a stalwart of the U.S. economy and our base of wage labor, this model has never been more at risk.

Meanwhile, the benefits cliff (2) has begun to impact consumer confidence. And fewer of the employment alternatives that existed pre-credit shortage are available for those who are impacted.

[The] benefits cliff is here, as most of the unemployed received their final infusion of the extra $600 from the federal government last week. Workers will still receive payments from their home states, but the loss of the extra $600 will slash payments by more than half for many, and in some cases significantly more for workers in states that offer only meager unemployment benefits. [3]

In U.S. school districts, teachers have no firm understanding for what the fall may bring. Nearly 3% of the American workforce are facing uncertainty. Will schools exist in its traditional format? What effect would remote learning have on education?

Of the nearly 80 million Americans (3) who will attend school in the fall, how many will be properly prepared for the technological requirements associated with distance education? From west coast to east, wealthier parents are angling for short-term fixes at the expense of longer-term consequences. Our educational systems are incapable of managing the stress test of the “venture-fication” of education.

jason@calacanis.com on Twitter: “Looking for the best 4-6th grade teacher in Bay Area who wants a 1-year contract, that will beat whatever they are getting paid, to teach 2-7 students in my back yard#microschool If you know this teacher, refer them & we hire them, I will give you a $2k UberEats gift card / Twitter”

Looking for the best 4-6th grade teacher in Bay Area who wants a 1-year contract, that will beat whatever they are getting paid, to teach 2-7 students in my back yard#microschool If you know this teacher, refer them & we hire them, I will give you a $2k UberEats gift card

Lastly, government fundamentals are at risk and there are few greater examples of this than the United States Postal Service, a nearly 250 year old organization that has never faced the headwinds that it is facing now. In a recent interview with CNN, the American Postal Workers Union President delved into his recent concerns:

The American Postal Workers Union’s president, Mark Dimondstein, told CNN in an interview Friday that the union has received a number of reports from postal workers and customers over the last two weeks that mail delivery has slowed and “degraded.” The union represents more than 200,000 Postal Service employees and retirees. [4]

With the current administration threatening to cut funding to the postal service, mail-in balloting is at risk of disruption. This is a key service of the USPS. And though the recent spike in online retail volume has mitigated funding gaps for the USPS, the uncertainty going into election season places another stalwart service at risk. Without the postal service, eCommerce cannot run. And with that, smaller retailers are due for additional concern. Many are facing the added costs of shifting business to UPS, DHL and Federal Express.

And here is where the circle closes for the online retail industry, an indicator of greater economic health and progress.

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对于 "黑色星期五 "和小型零售商来说，一个矛盾的现象是，11 月份网上零售的商品销售总额（GMV）将创历史新高。其中大部分将归功于沃尔玛、塔吉特（Target）、迪克体育用品（Dick's Sporting Goods）、奥斯卡（Academy）、百思买（Best Buy）和亚马逊（Amazon）决定在一年中最大的购物日之前（也可能在这一天）重视电子商务。通过在感恩节关闭所有实体店，市场可以预期数字广告支出将达到历史最高水平。反过来，这种花费可能会导致小型零售商的客户获取成本（CAC）上升。

Consider November for the early-stage retailer or small business. Unemployment is at an all-time high, the state of childhood education is uncertain, consumer confidence is on the decline, and we will be in the midst of the most contentious election in recent history. Advertising performance may suffer due to the influx of new and back loaded enterprise spend on digital platforms. And on top of it all, margins will be further diminished by increased logistics costs. In 2020, eCommerce has been a bright spot of hope for a shaken economy. But surviving the next months despite all of this uncertainty will be a tough task, even for an industry that seems inevitable.

I’ve long compared this presidency to Woodrow Wilson’s. Historians look back on the 28th President with conflicting analyses. Some herald his performance and others have been critical. One thing is for certain, we are once again fighting the wrong war. Infrastructure, consistency, and access to credit have never been more important as Americans shift from traditional work to a generation-defining sense of dynamism. Objectively speaking, Woodrow Wilson’s presidency was one of grandeur and neglect. By choosing the wrong war to fight (or not realizing that he could fight two – at once), he guaranteed an economic depression by fracturing the country’s foundation when it needed foundation, the most. A decision on the war we fight (and how its fought) will determine the fundamentals of our evolving digital economy. One of those wars should be to regain the fundamentals that allow dynamism to thrive.

November should be a win for entrepreneurs, small business owners, and high-growth brands who’ve long been ahead of the online retail curve. They will need that win. To achieve it, they’ll need market fundamentals on their side.

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes | 艺术：亚历克斯-雷米 |关于 2PM