备忘录每日收获的磨难

你做了就会被诅咒,你不做就会被诅咒。继续阅读时,请牢记这句古训。

在召回事件发生前的四周内,《每日丰收》在正面报道的推动下一路高歌猛进;这正是直接面向消费者的品牌所渴望的媒体关注的味道。福布斯》的报道强调了《每日收获》与布雷克-格里芬(Blake Griffin)、卡梅隆-安东尼(Carmelo Anthony)和其他著名运动员通过帕特里科夫公司(Patricof Co)的投资工具和咨询平台建立的股权合作关系。每一位参与者都参与了 2021 年第四季度宣布并于 2022 年第一季度完成的 D 轮融资。财富》杂志重点报道了首席执行官雷切尔-德罗里(Rachel Drori)的辉煌成就,这位前营销主管已成为消费品公司的创始人。你现在已经知道了她的故事

在大流行病期间,世界各地的人们对冷藏柜产生了新的感激之情,"每日丰收 "因此获得了指数级增长。当危机在美国爆发时,德罗里开始加倍增加库存,并呼吁她的农业供应商网络向 "每日丰收 "厨房提供水果和蔬菜。(3)

她仅用了 7 年时间就建立起了一家零售企业,其收入不负营销和品牌炒作之名,如今身价已达 3.5 亿美元。DTC Power List估计年收入为 1.58 亿美元,这很可能是保守估计。当一个品牌处于这种媒体宣传的轨道上时,他们会不惜一切代价来维护它。下面是一个简短的事件时间表:

  • 4 月 28 日:《每日收获》宣布推出 Crumbles(正面)
  • 5 月 28 日:《每日收获》宣布与布雷克-格里芬合作(正面)
  • 6 月 15 日:《每日收获》创始人被《福布斯》报道(正面报道)
  • 6月21日:《每日收获》在《食客》、美国全国广播公司新闻等媒体报道(关键字)

对于直接面向消费者的零售业中增长最快的行业中的消费类商品品牌来说,这是最糟糕的情况。赚来的媒体(《福布斯》和《财富》上的媒体)很少。很少有品牌首席执行官愿意为了面对更复杂的问题而过早地结束这种状况。但可以说,这可能是唯一的选择。不过,也有一种反驳意见。

早在四月份,"每日丰收 "的客户就报告了严重的胃部不适、肝痛和肠胃问题,一些人因此被送进了急诊室。这些问题被追溯到 4 月份公布的产品。几乎就在同时,在 Daily Harvest 的subreddit 上,话题从食谱转向了批评。

两周前,我第一次尝到了面包屑。那天晚上,我的胃痛到了极点,这是我从未有过的感觉。为了缓解和控制疼痛,我不得不去急诊室做最后的努力。经过 CT 扫描、静脉注射、药物治疗和一周的清淡饮食后,我想也许是某种虫子。

几天后,我尝了他们家的扁面包,第二天就发烧了。我以为这与前一次生病有关。

转眼到了昨天,我决定再试试面包屑。结果,我被同样可怕的胃痛折磨醒了。幸好我有上次的处方药,不需要再去急诊室。

美国全国广播公司(NBC)报道称,在周日发布正式召回声明之前,该团队似乎在客户服务推广方面存在失误,至少联系了一位客户,建议他们扔掉扁豆,并在声明发布前几天提供了折扣代码。现在已经很清楚的是,问题的广泛程度可能超过了 Daily Harvest 团队通过社交媒体传达的信息。在发布召回声明的前几天,《每日丰收》陷入了尴尬的境地。他们希望扩大正面媒体的影响,帮助他们重振在大流行病中获得的增长。同时,他们也要应对负面情绪。

答复由以下方面演变而来:

邮件中说,少数顾客在食用我们的法式扁豆韭菜碎后报告出现肠胃不适。根据我们的烹饪说明,扁豆必须彻底煮至内部温度达到 165°F。

......答复包括

我们启动了一项调查,以查明所报告的健康问题的根本原因。我们正与美国食品和药物管理局以及多家独立实验室密切合作调查此事。我们正与一组专家合作,帮助我们找出问题的根源,其中包括微生物学家、毒素和病原体专家以及过敏症专家。

每日丰收》努力在企业发展和稳定与消费者责任之间取得平衡。我认为,他们的情况比一般人理解的要复杂得多。一旦食品和药品管理局(FDA)介入,对于产品制造商来说,这绝不是一个友好的局面。今天,我采访了一位匿名人士,他拥有与政府打交道的第一手经验:

一旦[FDA]介入,你的品牌就会立刻失去话语权。你说什么、做什么都不对,所有信息都要经过他们的审核。他们更希望你的品牌受到伤害,他们会确保你的品牌受到伤害。这就是他们转移产品缺陷责任的方式。

要在不失去消费者信任的情况下应对潜在的召回事件,有一套理想的方法。你可能会认为它是这样的:行动迅速、过于谨慎和透明。2015 年,Jeni's 冰淇淋--另一个收入高达 9 位数的 CPG 品牌--发生了可能致命的李斯特菌恐慌。该公司的应对方式让人感觉是正确的,但却受到了严厉的处罚。

2015 年,杰尼餐厅(Jeni's)的杰尼-布里顿(Jeni Britton)经历了自己的一次公开反击。在首席执行官约翰-洛(John Lowe)的帮助下,杰尼公司的高管们通过快速行动、过度谨慎和透明化的方式,渡过了一场全国性的李斯特菌危机,这也是 Polymathic Audio 公司16 次亮相中的第一次。从许多方面来看,这种做法虽然高尚并受到道德褒奖,但却适得其反。就在《食客》上刊登了一篇关于 Daily Harvest 的类似文章近七年后的今天,他们又发表了这篇关于 Jeni 250 万美元亏损的文章(当时该公司还是自负盈亏)。

总部位于俄亥俄州的冰淇淋公司 Jeni's Splendid Ice Creams 已找到李斯特菌疫情的源头。上个月,Jeni's 公司(除全国批发业务外还经营多家勺子店)在对一品脱冰淇淋进行随机抽样后发现其中含有李斯特菌,于是主动召回了所有产品。一周后,该公司宣布销毁了超过 50 万磅的冰淇淋,估计损失达 250 万美元。

Lowe、Britton 和他们的团队销毁了他们的库存,在舆论的祭坛上公开牺牲自己,使公司的情况变得更糟。新闻接着将他们的公司与蓝钟冰淇淋公司(Blue Bell Ice Creams)进行了包装,后者是一家允许因李斯特菌爆发而导致死亡的独立公司。蓝钟采用了相反的策略:否认、拖延、保持沉默。珍妮和她的团队做了道义上正确的事,通过召回自己的产品来防止疾病的发生,但他们却给本来是地区性的新闻添油加醋,而且很可能在这一过程中激怒了食品及药物管理局(通过绕过他们发表博客)。仅仅三年后,美国全国广播公司(NBC)新闻就报道了这一事件

Lowe 和 Britton Bauer 决定,唯一的出路就是彻底解决这个问题,而且要做到完全透明。"Lowe 说:"我们决定撤下我们所有的冰淇淋--不仅仅是那个批次,不仅仅是那种口味,而是所有的冰淇淋,并关闭我们的勺子店。"我们无法想象第二天有人会走进我们的勺子店并受伤。Jeni's 团队还在其网站上发布了一篇关于召回的博文。

NBC报道的观点很简单:"杰尼致力于完全透明和损害控制,代价高昂"。在这篇报道中,你找不到任何关于美国食品及药物管理局的提法,据说他们被杰尼团队的做法激怒了。我通过研究品牌对 FDA 监督的反应,发现了一个共同点。政府机构往往会阻止你与消费者进行有效沟通。作为回报,品牌往往要面对愤怒的顾客群、反映顾客担忧的媒体情绪,以及愿意支持品牌的盟友(直到品牌摆脱困境)。

从任何涉及消费类商品品牌、受害消费者以及作为消费者和被消费者之间的缓冲机构的政府机构的故事中,我们都可以吸取教训。第一个教训是,没有完全正确的前进方向。每日丰收》因在回应中不必要的腼腆而遭到社交媒体的抨击。杰尼餐厅因为过于透明而差点破产。有则改之,无则加勉。

蕾切尔-德罗里和《每日收获》会找到解决之道的。如果杰妮的故事能说明问题,那么重建顾客的信任是有可能的。很少有人记得 2015 年他们在全国各地的无数勺子店。从杰妮-布里顿(Jeni Britton)重建同名品牌的工作中得到的一个启示是,在重建信任之前,一定要超额完成任务。在此过程中,相关品牌可能会建立新的品牌拥护者。

由 2PM 团队提供:艺术、编辑、数据和研究

备忘录快、更快、最快的时尚

快:H&M。更快Zara。最快Shein。这一进步改变了消费主义,加速了纺织品的生产,同时也损害了经济。Zara 打乱了 H&M 的阵脚,随后,Shein 又将两者赶下台。现在,H&M 开始进攻,试图重新夺回曾经的优势。

我们的希望是,重新挽回数以百万计被 Zara 和 Shein 抛弃的消费者。这一切都取决于两个相互竞争的理念:经济和环境影响。

快速时尚和运动休闲是有后果的;塑料制品并不是可以肆无忌惮地穿戴和丢弃的。

关于未来时尚的讨论充满了矛盾:年轻一代的购物者说他们想要保护环境。将这一理想与他们实际购买的商品相比较,你会发现他们 "拯救地球 "的集体理念中存在着裂痕。Z 世代通常被称为最具可持续发展意识和环保意识的消费群体。他们还推动了历史上最大的快速时尚公司 Shein 的崛起。相比之下,Zara 和 H&M 只是小零售商。哈佛商学院 2021 年的一份案例研究解释了 Zara 的母公司 Inditex 如何围绕供应链效率进行创新,以更快的速度生产出更符合潮流的产品。

Zara 是集团历史最悠久、规模最大的品牌,在 2018 年的销售额中约占 69%,即 180 亿欧元。Zara 成功的核心是基于反应迅速的供应链和快速商品周转的创新商业模式。Zara 在不到三周的时间内设计、生产并向商店交付新商品,从而能够不断更新产品系列,适应不断变化的顾客口味。

就在撰写本案例的两年后,Zara 现在又开始关注一个婴儿品牌:Shein 是打了类固醇的 Zara。Z 世代非常喜欢它。Shein已成为TikTok上的宠儿,用户们在那里分享从该品牌淘来的15美元连衣裙、10美元短裤和5美元上衣。这些衣服既便宜又时髦,专为一次性穿着而设计,在社交媒体上发布后就会被丢弃。这个概念并不新鲜,但在可持续发展的趋势下,它应该会过时。相反,这个想法却更有力量。

谢因的规模难以把握。该公司的运作比大多数公司都要隐秘,但显而易见的是,我们比以往任何时候都更清楚后果的严重性。快速时尚和运动休闲有非常明显的负面影响;塑料制品并不是用来随意穿戴和丢弃的。财富》杂志于5月31日撰文对Shein进行了深度报道,对其进行了叙述:

对全球投资者来说,倡导环境、社会和治理(ESG)方面的高标准越来越时髦,他们也同样为之倾倒。他们将 Shein 的估值抬高到 1000 亿美元,使其成为全球第三大最有价值的初创企业,仅次于字节跳动、TikTok 的中国母公司和埃隆-马斯克的 SpaceX。据彭博社报道,Shein 现在的价值超过了 H&M 和 Zara 母公司 Inditex 的总和。

尽管Shein创新的商业模式可能会降低消费者的价格,但观察家们抱怨说,Shein是在廉价劳动力、山寨商品和人工智能设计软件的支持下建立起自己的服装帝国的,这些软件鼓励消费者以对地球有害的速度抛弃旧服装。这些抱怨,再加上最近电子商务的放缓,使得该公司能否继续保持主导地位还很难说。

用《财富》杂志的话来说"Shein对环境的影响最终将导致其灭亡 "的说法充其量只是错误的。为什么?快速时尚的目标市场存在认知偏差。人们能在为 Instagram 购买 13 美元裙子的同时拯救地球吗?迄今为止,快时尚公司只是在被更快的公司取代后才失去了主导地位,这些公司能以更低的价格重复流行趋势。至于 Shein 的恶行是被顾客遗忘,还是被故意忽略,最终并不重要。因为价格实惠而被服装吸引的顾客,通常不会停下来问一件衣服为什么这么便宜。重要的是,底线证据表明,面对廉价的选择,年轻消费者会选择快速时尚。

Shein 的崛起是多种因素共同作用的结果。社交媒体加速了时尚的潮流周期。可持续时装价格昂贵,而消费主义浪潮的变化也让许多人认为时装不是一种投资,至少在潮流方面不是。在鼓励企业更加注重可持续发展的问题上,消费者经常被认为有责任 "用他们的钱投票",但这从来都不是完全正确的。顾客会购买容易买得起的东西,尤其是在他们年轻的时候。

Shein 本身就是一个黑盒子。关于它如何采购和生产服装的信息很少公开,但数字和价格标签却不言而喻。该公司已经开始公开其在可持续发展方面所做的努力。Vogue 将此称为 "洗绿":

每周都有令人震惊的 1500 万件服装从全球北方国家运抵坎塔曼托市场,使当地的纺织业遭受重创。

该公司聘请了一位全球环境、社会和治理主管,最近还宣布成立一个 5000 万美元的基金,用于抵消对环境的影响和处理废物问题。这不过是杯水车薪的 5000 万美元,对 Shein 在 TikTok、Snapchat、Instagram 和卡戴珊的忠实拥护者市场上所造成的影响来说,几乎是杯水车薪。本周,Shein 因与 OR 基金会合作而备受赞誉,该基金会将在三年内捐赠 1500 万美元,用于在加纳阿克拉解决服装浪费问题,那里是许多废弃服装的最终归宿。

这不过是在转移人们对垃圾填埋场的现实影响的注意力。Shein抨击浪费并捐献资金以引起人们对这一事业的关注可能会被认为是不真诚的。幸运的是,H&M 也在做类似的事情,它与 Lululemon 一起为接替Aii 的新组织捐款 2.5 亿美元:

"他说:"我们试图证明的是,这是所有气候工作的重心,从纺织品交易所到时尚公益组织,再到其他许多致力于降低碳排放、提出解决方案并将其付诸试点的组织,都是这一工作的受益者。"这是一个集体的'我们'。这不是把钱交给 Aii,也不会用于其他气候工作。这是在创建一个中央集合基金,让我们都能开始考虑一个更综合的方法,而不是分散的项目工作,彼此不交流,重复工作。

要解决时尚界的 Shein 问题,靠的不是捐款、公共关系或承认错误。更有效的解决办法是在社交媒体上掀起一股远离快速时尚、追求可持续发展的潮流。但是,不能依靠 Z 世代的顾客来解决这个问题。随着新潮流的出现和 TikTok 的传播,让所有人都能效仿,现在是时候接受这样的事实:任何好心的顾客都无法阻止数百万人所希望的零售机器。

由 2PM 团队提供

备忘录苹果公司的财产税

For Apple, hardware is the afterthought. Content, digital land, and privacy is at the forefront.

Two announcements in the past 24 hours confirms as much. This week, Apple won its first Oscar for best picture. And according to Nikkei, Apple is lowering the output of iPhones and Airpods as inflationary pressures and supply chain issues persist. From where will the margin come?

The answer can be found in Apple’s recent investments. Between 2017 and 2021, Apple’s ad revenue climbed from $300 million to $4 billion, mirroring Facebook’s steep climb from $750 million to $4.2 billion between 2009 and 2012. Apple is nowhere near the size of Meta’s advertising business (the company reached $115 billion in 2021) but there’s reason to believe that Apple could grow a considerable business in a timeframe comparable to what was seen at Facebook (now-Meta). In Linear Commerce and Content Fortresses, I explained:

苹果公司的意图乍一看似乎很简单。该公司希望改善最终用户的隐私。这种良性的努力带来了一些额外的结果。

By upgrading its privacy practices, Apple will impair large ad networks that have grown with the help of those end users. This could potentially cripple Facebook’s current model with its new privacy demands. Apple has also opened the door to an unintentional adjustment to its privacy mandate. In doing so, the Mark Zuckerberg-led advertising company (and social network) will adopt a new way to accomplish its most critical objectives: revenue growth and user utility.

Apple understands that the web isn’t private and at its core, whether through Apple’s ATT (App Tracking Transparency) or newer privacy initiatives, they are prioritizing the end user and her privacy. In June of 2021, iCloud+ was announced as a premium subscription service that featured a service called Private Relay. It is designed to encrypt all connections (even the ones not using HTTPS) to hide your IP address and prevent anyone from knowing your location or your identity (including Apple). From iMore:

The connection uses QUIC, which is meant to be like TCP but with lower latency and HTTP/3, and because Apple encrypts the connection, even your ISP can’t see where it is on the web you want to go. All they see is the connection to Apple’s ingress proxy server. So, Apple knows your IP, but not the website you want to go to because that’s encrypted.

At that point, Apple will strip away your real IP address and replace it with a temporary IP address from a pool of available addresses.

Now, consider the pace in which Apple captures ground in industry. Over the previous four years, Apple’s advertising grew as quickly as Facebook’s between 2009 and 2012. There’s an even greater example. In September 2019, it was announced in the New York Times that “Apple steps into the movie business.” In March of 2022, Apple TV+ became the first streaming service to win best picture. Apple has built a fortress; it’s using content and commerce as its bricks and privacy as its mortar.

Private Relay has the potential to have a major impact on the advertising industry. As The Information explains, the feature was released in September to Apple iCloud+ customers who could elect to turn the feature on for Safari browsing and a small percentage of “insecure app traffic over port 80.” For now, users can still use Chrome or any other non-native browser. Additionally, platforms that have you logged in: Gmail, Youtube, Facebook, TikTok can track your movements through the first-party data that the platforms collect.

But one thing is certain, when third-party technology companies circumvent Apple’s new policies on privacy, it is likely to precede another drastic measure taken by the hardware manufacturer. When turned on, Private Relay creates a virtual private network, meaning the internet provider can’t track what websites a user is visiting, and the websites can’t see any identifying information about the visitors. With Apple’s recent pivot to privacy, there’s reason to believe that this feature will be rolled out more aggressively to more users, which would be yet another blow to other platforms like Meta and Google who are currently relying on IP addresses to workaround the existing privacy crackdowns that Apple implemented last year. From The Information:

If the Private Relay service expanded beyond Safari to stop the transmission of user IP addresses across mobile apps, ad industry executives say it would hobble the efforts many ad networks and ad tech companies have made to adapt to Apple’s earlier changes, known as App Tracking Transparency. Many of the workarounds that firms including Meta, Snap and Google developed in the wake of Apple’s changes rely in part on having access to groups of user IP addresses to measure whether ads the users saw led to sales.

These workarounds include using an IP address to determine if a visitor to the site then took further action, like making a purchase. There’s evidence that these workarounds were effective. A recent report from 9to5Mac noted Facebook’s success in identifying (short-term) workarounds, noted for a sudden surge in advertising performance:

In a company statement, a Meta spokesperson said it has “continued to adapt our systems to help businesses succeed while honoring privacy and shared extensive steps they can take to maximize performance and measurement on our platforms.”

While Apple said it would pull apps who violated its new privacy policies, there’s been no action against this type of workaround. It might have been biding its time, knowing that harsher restrictions to user visibility were coming, which would take a further hit on these tech companies’ advertising businesses. Regardless of Apple’s stated motivations, these moves are benefitting its own ad business while hampering others. At the same time, Meta and Google are not going to lay down without a fight – each company is equipped to build more counters to Apple’s moves. But the owner of the hardware ultimately controls the hosted content. This poses a problem no matter how big and mighty the advertising duopoly might seem.

And that’s not where Apple’s actions end. Email addresses are a critical currency for brand marketers who want to establish closer relationships with their customers. Discount codes and branded newsletters are pushed hard to visitors who go to a company website. Apple’s new Hide My Email feature, rolled out in December to iCloud+ customers, randomly generates an email for customers to share with a site to unlock access that hides their real email. Another marketing cornerstone and key touchpoint for advertisers is severed. That complicates future targeting efforts and obfuscates a clear view on who’s coming to the website and browsing and buying what.

And this means that while Apple continues to build a new identity around the importance of privacy, advertising efficacy on other platforms may continue to diminish. It’s also likely that we will see something similar from that other hardware / software company. Google may adopt similar strategies; the iOS vs. Android arms race tends to work like that. The loser in all of this seems to be Facebook and the many brands reliant on their advertising service:

It is unlikely that Apple reverses course on its ATT changes and its diminishing of the IDFA but an entire industry is in need of a middle ground. For many founders and executives, their livelihoods are on the line and it isn’t Facebook that will be remembered as the culprit. Apple must either resolve its decision in favor of the advertisers reliant on sales-driven marketing.

Facebook anticipates a $10 billion impact on its own advertising sales, a sum that represents tens of billions in goods and services traded. It’s unlikely that the hole left by the degraded performance of Facebook advertising will be filled by another digital platform.

 

Apple will need to continue growing its content marketplace; Tim Cook’s digital fiefdom will require greater (user-generated) content engagement. As such, it’s not leap in logic that Apple will build a platform for user-generated content (UGC). Don’t be surprised if Apple acquires one in the process. Twitter, anyone? Without greater advertising opportunity within the Apple ecosystem, digitally-native businesses will suffer from the collateral damage. Apple has become the solution for handheld consumer privacy; business owners deserve a capable alternative to the services that Apple is crushing with its new practices.

When Apple shuttered the iAd Network in June of 2016, few could have predicted how successful a second iteration of it could become just six year later. If Apple expands its iCloud+ offering to all users, it’s pursuit of digital advertising dominance will be official. The writing is on the fortress wall, built atop the land that Apple owns. That land is due to come with new property tax for all who enter.