Memo: eCommerce Deceleration

The global eCommerce industry has long been a beacon of rapid growth and innovation. However, according to new data by Stocklytics – a slowdown should be anticipated:

Between 2019 and 2024, global ecommerce revenues have spiked by almost 90%, rising from $2.18 trillion to $4.11 trillion. After COVID-19 triggered a boom in online shopping, the market revenue grew by an average of 25% per year before slumping in 2022 and 2023. Statista expects 2024 and 2025 to see high revenue growth rates again, rising by 14.6% and 16.4% year-over-year, respectively. However, after this recovery, the entire market will face a considerable slowdown, causing its revenue to grow much less than in previous years.

With revenue surpassing $4 trillion in 2023, driven by the convenience and technological advancements in online shopping, the sector has become a critical component of the modern retail landscape. However, recent research by Statista and Stocklytics indicates a paradigm shift is on the horizon. The annual growth rate of eCommerce is expected to contract significantly between 2025 and 2029, compelling businesses to reassess their operational efficiency strategies. This anticipated slowdown highlights the need for a more robust focus on omnichannel growth, operational efficiency, and physical retail partnerships.

From 2019 to 2024, global eCommerce revenues soared by almost 90%, catalyzed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which accelerated the adoption of online shopping. Innovations such as AI, voice search, and augmented reality blurred the lines between digital and physical shopping experiences, driving substantial user engagement and revenue growth. However, despite these advancements, the landscape is set to change drastically. According to that Stocklytics report, the annual growth rate will plummet to 4.6% by 2029, a third of the current rate. Several factors contribute to this projected decline that have been discussed here. Supply chain disruptions, inflation, rising digital advertising costs, and evolving consumer behavior are creating a more challenging environment for eCommerce profitability. The once double-digit growth rates will give way to a more tempered expansion, necessitating a strategic pivot towards integrating online and offline channels.

As eCommerce growth decelerates, the importance of an omnichannel approach becomes paramount. Omnichannel nirvana involves creating a seamless shopping experience across various channels, including online platforms, mobile apps, and physical stores.

On one end: profitable, enterprise traditional brands are in the news for moving away from wholesale and towards DTC. And on the other end: yet-to-be profitable digitally-native brands are in the news for moving towards department store wholesale in search of profits and scale.

They’re each trying to achieve a sort of omnichannel nirvana.

This strategy ensures that customers can engage with a brand consistently, regardless of the medium they choose. This approach to omnichannel balance allows retailers to offer a cohesive and personalized shopping experience. By leveraging data from both online and offline interactions, businesses can better understand customer preferences and tailor their offerings accordingly. This holistic view of the customer journey enhances satisfaction and loyalty.

Physical stores complement online channels by providing additional touchpoints for customer engagement. Showrooms, pop-up shops, and flagship stores offer tangible experiences that online platforms cannot replicate. These physical spaces also serve as venues for events, product demonstrations, and personalized consultations, enriching the customer experience. Integrating online and offline channels enables better inventory management.

Retailers can use physical stores as distribution centers for online orders, reducing shipping times and costs. This approach could enhance efficiency and meets the growing demand for efficient delivery times. Combining data from various channels provides valuable insights into customer behavior. Retailers can analyze this information to optimize their marketing strategies, improve product assortments, and enhance operational efficiencies. This data-driven approach helps businesses stay agile and responsive to market changes.

In addition to omnichannel strategies, forging partnerships with wholesalers can provide significant advantages. As eCommerce growth slows, collaborations with established brick-and-mortar stores can help eCommerce brands tap into new customer bases and leverage existing infrastructure. Partnering with physical retailers allows eCommerce brands to reach customers who prefer in-store shopping. This extended reach can drive sales and brand awareness, especially in regions where online penetration is lower. Collaborations enable resource sharing, from logistics and warehousing to marketing and customer service. This synergy can lead to cost savings and operational efficiencies, benefiting both eCommerce and physical retail partners.

Physical retail partnerships can enhance omnichannel fulfillment capabilities, as well. Retailers can offer services like “buy online, pick up in-store” (BOPIS) or “reserve online, try in-store” (ROTIS), providing customers with convenient options and driving foot traffic to physical locations. Physical retail spaces offer unique opportunities for brand building and storytelling. eCommerce brands can create immersive in-store experiences that reflect their identity and values, fostering deeper connections with customers. And several traditional brands have demonstrated the efficacy of omnichannel strategies by blending the physical and the digital in their own versions of omnichannel nirvana.

The first example is DSW (Designer Shoe Warehouse), which utilizes infinite aisle technology to offer customers a wide range of SKUs via mobile devices and digital displays. Their in-store mobile app enhances the shopping experience by allowing customers to browse rewards, wish lists, and personalized offers and checkout from anywhere in the store. DSW’s eCommerce platform improvements, such as more relevant search results and online-to-store purchase options, have significantly broadened their shopping ease and customer satisfaction​.

Urban Outfitters created an intuitive mobile app that provides a seamless online shopping experience supported by their in-store services. The brand has also developed unique content strategies like the “UO Live” music series and music-focused Instagram pages, which engage customers through a multi-sensory experience that combines fashion and music. This strategy enhances the online and offline shopping experience and strengthens their community presence.

Abercrombie & Fitch has also embraced omnichannel retailing by integrating online and in-store experiences. Their system allows customers to search for in-store merchandise online, share shopping carts across devices, and return online purchases in-store. This cross-channel flexibility ensures a seamless shopping experience and increases customer convenience and loyalty.

Foot Locker has further blurred the lines between online and offline shopping through video walls in its physical stores by revamping its FLX loyalty program. This was recently published in Glossy

Both the new FLX Rewards program and the new app are focused on two things, according to Foot Locker’s chief customer officer, Kim Waldmann: improving the connection between Foot Locker’s online and offline retail, and giving customers better access to limited products.

This strategy allows customers to research products, view them from multiple angles, and read user reviews while in-store. This integration of digital content into the physical shopping environment provides a comprehensive shopping experience and reinforces the consistency of its pricing and promotions across all channels.

IKEA has set a high standard for omnichannel retailing with its comprehensive strategy that combines digital tools and in-store experiences. Their augmented reality app, Click and Collect service, and online planning tools allow customers to engage deeply with the brand across multiple channels. Through programs like buy-back and recycling, IKEA’s commitment to sustainability and customer education further enhances its omnichannel approach and builds strong customer relationships.

These examples illustrate how effective omnichannel strategies and physical retail partnerships can drive growth and enhance customer experiences. By integrating digital and physical channels, these brands create cohesive, convenient, and engaging shopping journeys that meet the evolving expectations of modern consumers.

The anticipated slowdown in eCommerce growth between 2025 and 2029 presents both challenges and opportunities for retailers. By embracing omnichannel strategies and forging physical retail partnerships (both wholesale and owned store strategies), businesses will be more capable of navigating this evolving landscape and continue to thrive. The integration of online and offline channels, coupled with strategic collaborations, will be key to enhancing customer experiences, optimizing operations, and sustaining growth in the years to come.

Investigación, datos y redacción por Web Smith

DTC Feature: Blackstock Rising

Tap in. There’s very little that’s new under a sun that shines on modern brand development; this is one trendline that may define collaborations, media interest, and investment strategy. Just one decade ago, it was nearly impossible to find a majority black-owned, preppy-focused brand. Five years ago, one would be hard pressed to find brand advertisements with models that represented the culture. And today, you can name enough to fill an autumn wardrobe for your kid’s freshman year at Boston College or Vanderbilt.

As the air of Fall 2024 sweeps across college campuses and city streets, the continued rise of “Black Preppy” culture continues to make waves in the fashion world. This movement, a casual blend of streetwear elements with the refined aesthetics of old guard, blue-blooded Ivy League fashion, reflects a broader cultural shift. In the words of Black Ivy author Jason Jules,

It’s not just about the clothes. It’s about the culture, the confidence, the community.

Nearer to the forefront of this sartorial renaissance stands one of a number of notable upstarts: Blackstock & Weber.

A New Era of Black Preppy Culture

When Ralph Lauren launched its HBCU (Historically Black Colleges and Universities) collaboration in 2022, the response was mixed. Some critics felt uneasy about the nostalgic imagery, while others saw it as a necessary reframing, showcasing Black models in preppy styles that African Americans have long been a part of.

Chris Echevarria, founder of Blackstock & Weber, embodies this sentiment of this contradiction with his brand, aiming to be “the next Ralph Lauren.” His goal is lofty but worthy, highlighting the lack of authentic representation in preppy fashion. While countless brands have helped to pry open the doors, Echevarria’s 100% Black-owned brand proves there is ample space for Black preppy acolytes to thrive. In my opinion, Echevarria’s vision transcends mere fashion—it’s a cultural statement, rooted in quality and authenticity, carving out a new space in the preppy pantheon. In fact, it’s a vision that I failed to achieve on my own during my time at Mizzen+Main.

The B&W brand’s founder is a story is one of passion, resilience, and an unyielding commitment to quality. Born and raised in New Jersey, Echevarria developed a keen eye for fashion at a young age. His mother recalls how even as a child, he had a strong preference for picking out his own clothes, a trait that would later define his career.

When I was young, I loved clothes. My mother remembers that even at the age of 4, I would cry when she didn’t let me pick out my own clothes. (Essence Magazine)

This early passion influenced the groundwork for his later success. Initially pursuing a career in medicine, he eventually followed his true passion, enrolling at the Fashion Institute of Technology (F.I.T.) in New York City. His time at F.I.T. and subsequent roles in the fashion industry, including a significant stint at J.Crew, shaped his understanding of the market and honed his design skills.

Launched in 2018, Blackstock & Weber quickly gained a reputation for its modern takes on classic styles, particularly the penny loafer. Echevarria’s vision was clear: to create a brand that combined the timeless appeal of artisanal workmanship with the dynamic communication style of modern streetwear brands. This strategy proved successful, as Blackstock & Weber grew by 300% annually, becoming a beacon of the preppy-with-a-twist style.

Echevarria’s approach to business relationships has also been pivotal. “I don’t have wholesale partners; I have friends,” he says, emphasizing the importance of personal connections. This approach has fostered loyal partnerships with influential retailers like Kith and 3sixteen, and even extended to Hong Kong with Leather Healer. This personal touch, combined with his strategic vision, has helped the brand carve out a unique niche in the fashion industry.

Media Interest and Cultural Impact

The media has taken notice of Blackstock & Weber’s unique position in the fashion industry. In the interview with Essence, Echevarria discussed how he channels nostalgia to create a brand that feels both timeless and contemporary. “It becomes a candid discussion about channeling nostalgia to feel grounded in the present, and how navigating the space between adversity and insight allows Echevarria to sit in his own power,” Devine Blacksher writes.

Shoppe Black also highlighted the brand’s distinctiveness. It noted that Blackstock & Weber carved a niche by offering limited-edition footwear that combines traditional craftsmanship with modern sensibilities. Echevarria’s commitment to quality and his ability to bridge the gap between high-end fashion and accessibility set the brand apart. The brand’s small-batch production ensured exclusivity, while collaborations with partners like J.Crew and Kith demonstrated its wide appeal.

A New Wave of Media Acceptance

The rise of Blackstock & Weber signifies a broader cultural acceptance of black preppy culture. Note brands like Recreational Habits, this Howard Crew piece by Wales Bonner, the summer shaker sweater by Noah, or this field rugby by Echevarria’s Academy.

Historically, preppy fashion was associated with the elite, often excluding African-Americans whose heritage contributed to the mid-century preppy movement. The emergence of history packaged by  Black Ivy culture has redefined this narrative. Let Black Ivy author Jason Jules tell it:

In Mr. Jules’s telling, the adoption by generations of Black men of sartorial codes originating among a white Ivy League elite may initially have been a natural inflection point in the arc of men’s wear evolution. Yet it was also a conscious development, one with a strategic agenda that extended well beyond the obvious goal of looking good. (New York Times)

Black men have long adopted, adapted, and influenced preppy styles, infusing them with their own cultural significance and flair. The moodern fusion created a unique aesthetic that resonates with a wide audience.

But Black Ivy culture itself has deep roots. During the mid-20th century, black students at Ivy League and historically black colleges adopted and transformed traditional preppy styles, creating a look that was both sophisticated and reflective of their identity. This cultural evolution has continued to influence fashion, contributing to the rise of brands like Blackstock & Weber.

Looking Ahead. In 2020’s, “New Prep,” I explained: “Like Aimé Leon Dore and Noah, Rowing Blazers’ presence is noticeably diverse. Product page and brand photography aside, the images shared through social channels communicate a common theme. But more than a theme, it’s a welcome sign.” B&W is one of a growing class of brands who’ve walked through that door.

As Blackstock & Weber continues to grow, it stands as a beacon of innovation, quality, and cultural pride. Echevarria’s vision, coupled with his ability to connect with consumers on a personal level, has paved the way for him. As the fashion world continues to evolve, Blackstock & Weber is well-positioned to lead the charge, redefining classic menswear staples for the modern age and setting new standards for what it means to be preppy in the 21st century.

The story of Blackstock & Weber is not just about fashion; it’s about cultural transformation, personal vision, and the ability to transcend traditional boundaries. As Echevarria continues to innovate and inspire, Blackstock & Weber’s rise is a testament to the enduring appeal of black preppy culture and its rightful place in the mainstream fashion narrative​.

The difference is that a number of the leaders who cater to the blue blood and blue blood-adjacent are ones who’d have been wiped or excluded from cap tables. Today, they have quickly become the collaborative partner of choice of brands seeking to tap in to a culture that was once excluded from the conversation. You don’t need to collaborate with a brand like this, if you are a brand like this.

Por Web Smith

In halls where ivy tendrils climb, and echoes of tradition chime, a new rhythm blends with classic grace, Black Ivy culture finds its place. And so, we honor this grand design, Where blackness and prep intertwine, a culture rich, with stories told, in every thread, both new and old.

Member Brief: DFF eCommerce

There has been a slow dismantling of the energy behind the American direct-to-consumer movement. So what does direct-to-consumer mean now? It may come to mean “direct from factory” or DFF.

Este informe está destinado exclusivamente a Miembros ejecutivos, para facilitarle la afiliación, puede hacer clic a continuación y acceder a cientos de informes, a nuestra lista DTC Power List y a otras herramientas que le ayudarán a tomar decisiones de alto nivel.

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