备忘录敌人,第二部分

 

In a new feature detailing the trajectory of Shopify, Bloomberg unpacked CEO Tobi Lütke’s distinct management style, the company’s history, and its pointed differences from Amazon. While Amazon’s obsession with its customer and “everything store” tag define it, Shopify is merchant-obsessed and now striving to be the “everywhere store”, underscored by its early-pandemic move to completely virtual work. After years spent building the backbones of small businesses’ online stores, Shopify went public in 2015 and has catapulted to greater heights since the pandemic’s onset as traditional retailers moved online.

Its trajectory is one that Amazon missed out on. A 2015 headline in Recode stated: “Amazon Will Shut Down Amazon Webstore, Its Competitor to Shopify and Bigcommerce.” The report by Jason Del Rey added:

The eCommerce software business focused on small and midsize businesses has become more competitive in recent years as young companies such as Shopify and Bigcommerce have raised gobs of venture capital to expand their tool sets and attract more customers.

Six years later, we’ve learned via Bloomberg that Amazon sold its merchant platform (Webstore) to Shopify for $1 million. In exchange for the more than 80,000 merchants who switched their business to Shopify, Amazon Pay was enabled on the Shopify platform. From Bloomberg:

Bezos and his colleagues believed that supporting small retailers and their online shops was never going to be a large, profitable business. They were wrong – small online retailers generated about $153 billion in sales in 2020, according to AMI Partners. “Shopify made us look like fools,” says [a] former Amazon executive.

Shopify’s success is not due to Amazon’s Webstore misstep, but it afforded the company an advantage in capitalizing on a piece of eCommerce that Amazon underestimated. Amazon didn’t take direct-to-consumer sales seriously enough to work that into its long-term business plan, and it went so far as to set up a competitor for success in that area of retail. It was focused elsewhere, including on its private-label brands. Amazon communicated to many that entrepreneurs aren’t its bread and butter, rather the end customer is.

By focusing on product retail, Amazon left the field open for Shopify to excel in the art of brand development, something that Amazon has notoriously minimized as it built its own retail empire with the Amazon brand at the forefront. With Shopify putting its merchant brands first, its scope expanded beyond small merchants by earning the trust of leading retailers as well. The validation from Amazon, granted when it turned over its Webstore merchants, also helped.

Now, Shopify is stretching its legs to emerge from behind the scenes, tapping creators and big names to appeal to young customers and brands on the rise. Last fall, it hired former Yeezy GM Jon Wexler to lead its creator and influencer program, a move that has already led to deals like BIGFACE Coffee, created by NBA star Jimmy Butler. In No. 759, we wrote on the Wexler era and Shopify’s foray into persona-led brands:

BIGFACE Coffee is the experiment’s first major output of Shopify’s creator program. It’s a project that combines demand, earned media, and a pulse with the technical prowess and support of Shopify Inc.  It uses what Shopify has been known for (physical products) and pairs it with built-in demand (creators) and tests newer forms of commerce and technology (Web3 products / new front end design concepts / etc). Yes, BIGFACE packages a selection of its products with NFTs.

With earned media and more flair, Shopify intends to work on its own brand next. The road ahead will not be easy, however. Shopify is still behind in the critical are of fulfillment management and third-party logistics. While it began investing in fulfillment in 2019, the “last mile” is largely left to merchants whereas Amazon has shouldered one of the heaviest burdens for its sellers.

In this way, Amazon has taken steps to regain its edge on Shopify. Over the summer, it inked a partnership with BigCommerce to provide fulfillment for its merchants, a move that gives a direct Shopify competitor an edge on the leading SaaS provider by extending the power of Amazon’s biggest advantage, full-stack fulfillment. The possibility of it creating a Shopify-killer isn’t ruled out. “Amazon is a worthy rival,” Lütke told Bloomberg. But if the numerous developments covered above are any indication, Shopify’s rival may become a fulfillment partner. In Amazon’s Moat, we explain:

Through years of investments, Amazon has created its own cargo shipping fleet and is leasing planes, along with the opening of an Air Hub in Cincinnati, to avoid out-of-stock problems that have begun plaguing other retailers at this stage in the holiday shopping season. Amazon has stretched its business in myriad ways, but its advantages are no longer just product and digital-driven. On October 5, a container ship ported in Houston, Texas with a ship filled entirely by Amazon.

Shopify’s product pipeline does not include a fleet of shipping vehicles or investments into a midwest air hub, or transnational shipping strategy that consolidates shipments for its vendors. Amazon has passed FedEx in shipping volume and is poised to capture UPS and USPS’s market share as well. Additionally, Amazon will spend $52 billion on warehousing and shipping. Amazon is now in command of nearly 175 million square feet of warehousing with the ability to process, pack, and deliver over 50% of the goods that it sells. [1]

Amazon is approaching a truly vertically integrated logistics network on par with the largest delivery companies in the world. [2]

虽然 Shopify 现在占据优势,但亚马逊的履约系统网络正迅速成为必不可少的。Shopify 的劲敌,最终可能会成为它最需要的合作伙伴。

Edited by Hilary Milnes with art by Alex Remy and Christina Williams 

Frenemies, Part I: Shopify vs. Meta

Member Anecdote: Frenemies

When you think about DTC, Web3 is its natural successor.

本会员简报专为以下人士设计 执行委员为了方便加入,您可以点击下面的链接,获取数百份报告、我们的 DTC 权力清单和其他工具,帮助您做出高水平的决策。

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备忘录控股公司的崛起

一方有分销优势,另一方有品牌资产优势。我认为,从长远来看,控股公司的趋势将有利于品牌资产。

随着 Thrasio 接近上市的传言不绝于耳,其竞争对手也越来越多,其中包括 Branded Group、Elevate Brands、Unybrands、Technology Commerce Management、Boosted Commerce、Heyday 和 Win Brands Group。虽然技术可能在量化每项投资的可行性和潜在上升空间方面发挥作用,但没有一家公司完全依靠算法来决定品牌的命运。直到最近。

据Axios本周报道,OpenStore已融资3000万美元,用于发展其Shopify卖家的业务。Shopify上出现了山寨版的商家控股公司,而亚马逊卖家的业务也蒸蒸日上,这很能说明问题:Shopify 已经建立了一个具有引力的电子商务宇宙。以下是 OpenStore 的工作原理:

  • 零售商交出登录凭证
  • OpenStore 验证销售和其他库存数据
  • 机器人在下一个工作日之前确定收购要约

目前,OpenStore 的估值已达 2.5 亿美元,并已针对数千个品牌推出了自动收购工具。Shopify商家在自己的网站上销售,没有集中的销售平台,而OpenStore则可以从这些卖家的丰富性中获益,他们与客户有直接的关系,这一点与亚马逊卖家不同。OpenStore 瞄准的是那些在众多电子商务企业中难以脱颖而出的卖家--这是一个明智的策略,因为客户获取、市场营销和品牌知名度是建立商家业务最昂贵的部分,而 Shopify 缺乏亚马逊的促销算法和搜索功能(尽管 Shop 开始改变这种状况)。

亚马逊是 "发现女王"。

据彭博社报道,Shopify 正在向滚动功能靠拢,它已经建立了自己的店面交易所。出价过程很快将成为 Shopify 平台的一部分:任何商家都可以登录,并通过 OpenStore 的机器人接收出售整个业务的出价。Shopify 的滚动业务有一定的规模空间,但与亚马逊相比仍有很大差距,这是有道理的。虽然亚马逊卖家的规模往往比传统的小企业商家更大,但 Shopify 卖家在品牌资产和净促进者得分方面的得分往往更高。对于亚马逊卖家来说,很少有人拥有与客户的关系。这需要一些复杂的广告和销售漏斗开发来锁定亚马逊客户,将他们引向品牌的原生购物车。Shopify 品牌收购者则少了一个步骤。对于像 Win Brands Group 这样的公司来说,卓越运营的后台系统可用于改善运营、增加利润和减少重复。OpenStore 是否正在实施类似的战略,时间会证明一切。

亚马逊的优势仍然是产品的可发现性。致力于这种形式的滚动公司通常会收购短期风险较小但长期风险较大的 FBA 品牌。这就是问题的关键所在:

如果通过 Shopify、BigCommerce 或其他商务提供商进行销售,新生的亚马逊品牌是否也能取得同样的成功?

OpenStore的竞争对手,如Perch、Thrasio和Elevate Brands,都专注于新兴业务。这对他们来说很有意义。亚马逊零售商要想实现超过 500 万美元或更高的销售额,需要做的工作要少得多。对于 Shopify 商家来说,要实现同样的目标,需要更好的销售漏斗、更强大的运营团队和消费者青睐的品牌。为了降低失败风险,Win Brands 集团收购年收入达到或超过八位数的品牌。通过传统方法评估,这似乎是最好的方法。但是,OpenStore 如果能像 Win Brands 集团一样,在品牌成长轨迹的早期就能识别出有实力的企业,就能彻底改变 Shopify 方面的品牌收购热潮。OpenStore 能否通过算法发现这类品牌?当他们收购这些品牌时,能否以有利于零售品牌发展的方式简化运营?

目前,亚马逊品牌收购业务是首选渠道。请看最近一篇关于数字原生品牌现状的评论。全球连线顾问公司(Global Wired Advisors)的执行合伙人克里斯-希普弗林(Chris Shipferling)在为《福布斯》撰写的一篇文章中,为亚马逊品牌收购提供了一个公牛案例:

我相信,在未来三到五年内,优先考虑关键词排名、赢得评论和推动转化的营销活动将完全取代传统的品牌战略。其中许多做法在市场上已无处不在,因此,优质品牌的定义将不断演变,以反映电子商务的最佳做法。

对零售品牌心理的评估从未像现在这样不正确。虽然这些可量化的指标将继续在消费者评估其购买选择时发挥作用,但随着算法的转变、第三方数据的减少以及平台对自有品牌的培育,品牌可能从未像现在这样重要。品牌非常重要。而这正是 OpenStore 的成功之处,它的模式更像亚马逊的收购(定量),而不是 Shopify 的收购(定性)。

零售商希望与顾客进行一对一的接触。他们希望自己的品牌有自己的信息、目的和观点。现在,Shopify.com 比亚马逊网站(原生)上有更多这样的信息,这可能会导致亚马逊托管品牌的流失。请看下面的相关例子。随着行业向 Shopify 品牌卷积的方向转变,越来越少的非风险投资支持的品牌将需要等待成熟后才能获得 Win Brands Group 等投资机构的青睐。如果 OpenStore 的专有技术能像 Win Brands Group 的数字原生品牌资深人士及其专注于 Shopify 的同行一样选择品牌,那么 OpenStore 就能很好地扩展 Shopify 战略。

作者:Web Smith

本备忘录是对周五成员简报中简短分析的扩充。该版本有一些语法错误。这个版本已经有所改进,值得您阅读。对于所有发来电子邮件的人,我为其中的错误表示歉意