备忘录:线性商业和内容堡垒

苹果公司的意图乍一看似乎很简单。该公司希望改善最终用户的隐私。这种良性的努力带来了一些额外的结果。

通过升级隐私保护措施,苹果公司将损害在这些终端用户帮助下发展起来的大型广告网络。这可能会削弱 Facebook 目前的模式,使其无法满足新的隐私要求。苹果公司还为无意中调整其隐私保护措施打开了方便之门。这样一来,马克-扎克伯格领导的广告公司(和社交网络)将采用一种新的方式来实现其最关键的目标:收入增长和用户效用。Facebook 将成为一家电子商务公司。

线性商业法的设想是销售实体产品的品牌与数字媒体之间的关系。第一份成员简介的第一段写道

线性商务是 2PM 对不断发展的商务生态系统理解的核心原则。它是对受众的优先排序。产品制造商通常将需求生成外包。那些走在时代前沿的品牌会像重视实体产品的生产一样重视受众的增长。同样,遵循这些原则的数字媒体出版商会优先考虑有机和忠实受众的增长,而不是搜索引擎优化或 PPC 驱动的商品点击。[2PM, 1]

如果你打造了一款优秀的产品,你就需要一批忠实的受众作为商品的市场。而如果你已经建立了一批忠实受众,你就需要一个优秀的产品来向他们销售。现在,这也适用于软件驱动的受众和为其盈利的第一方产品。在此之前,移动应用程序一直依赖于从名为 "广告商识别码 "或 IFDA 的跟踪系统中获得的宝贵数据。从苹果公司最近发布的 iOS 14.5 开始,这一数据源已被关闭。

苹果公司决定实施新的隐私政策,这迫使广告业束手无策。在 2020 年 6 月的 WWDC 大会上,苹果公司宣布了广告商访问移动生态系统 IFDA 的新方式。最简单地说,用户需要明确选择允许广告商访问 IFDA,这是一个价值 1890 亿美元的国际产业。应用程序跟踪透明度(ATT)框架不利于那些依赖这一市场获取 iOS 客户的广告商。

Verizon Media 旗下公司 Flurry Analytics 跟踪了 100 多万个移动应用程序,每月从 20 亿台移动设备中汇总数据和见解。根据这些数据,全球 iOS 14.5 用户的选择加入率徘徊在 11% 左右。令人震惊的是,这一数字在美国进一步下降。徘徊在 4% 左右。

内容堡垒和 "其他

第一方数据是填充当今蒸馏塔的物质,而零售媒体网络则将石油般的第一方数据加工成关键资产。在这个比喻中,原油就是内容。正如我最近撰写的关于重新认识内容价值的文章所述,内容现在是所有第一方数据战略的核心。我解释道

第一方数据将引领下一波广告和销售浪潮。美国企业现在正处于一场竞赛中:他们将建立、收购或营销拥有这些数据的受众。独立媒体行业很快就会讨论结果,但我们很少对早期步骤进行剖析。随着越来越多的人追求第一方数据,受众开发将成为市场上最令人垂涎的技能之一。

为了获取目标客户,第一方受众正在取代第三方受众。这是未来发展的早期迹象:在过去的六个月里,有两家大型通讯社被更大的公司收购。[2PM, 4]

苹果公司的决定加快了线性商务(媒体与商务的结合)的采用。再看看 Facebook 减少对苹果生态系统依赖的战略。随着 iOS 14.5 的更新,Facebook 跟踪浏览转化的能力受到了削弱。

这就是这些电子商务产品的用武之地。如果 Facebook 能通过自己的应用程序销售更多产品,它就不会那么依赖跨站用户跟踪。[2]

虽然 Facebook 将成为一家电子商务公司,但他们并不一定要与亚马逊竞争。他们可能会从商品销售中赚取相对较少的利润。但这些产品的广告将促使品牌营销人员继续投资,在 Facebook 旗下的应用程序(包括 Instagram 及其原生商店)上投放商品广告。

当您进行销售时,我们会自动从您的付款中扣除一笔费用。我们称之为销售费。销售费为每批货物的 5%,或 8 美元或以下货物的统一费用 0.40 美元。其余收入归您所有。[3]

当达到预期目标时,Facebook 作为广告商的功效跟踪与 IFDA 受 14.5 版升级影响之前并无不同。Facebook 首席财务官大卫-韦纳(David Wehner)与分析师分享了他的乐观看法:"我们认为,对我们自身业务的影响将是可控的。"Facebook 长期以来一直拥有宝贵的受众,最近又致力于原生商务;苹果对隐私的推动促使这家门洛帕克公司优先考虑其围墙花园,这与亚马逊作为围墙花园广告商的发展如出一辙。

亚马逊在周四举行的第一季度财报电话会议上表示,广告销售额(公司将其列为 "其他")同比增长 77%,达到 69 亿美元。

亚马逊目前占据了美国数字广告市场 10.3% 的份额(之前为 7.9%),预计到 2023 年将达到 13% 的市场份额。在目前由谷歌和 Facebook(苹果也想分一杯羹)主导的广告市场上,亚马逊的 "围墙花园 "策略使其排名第三。Facebook 的 "围墙花园 "策略旨在帮助他们攀升至第一的位置。在这方面,他们比谷歌更有优势。

内容堡垒 "一词是由 Mobile Dev Memo 的分析师 Eric Benjamin Seufert 创造的。这种 "围墙花园 "式的方法表明了获取第一方数据并将其货币化的大趋势。

二月初,移动广告网络 Applovin 收购了移动归因公司 Adjust。除了财务工程(考虑到 Applovin 即将上市)之外,这次收购没有任何战略理由,只是因为 Applovin 正在建立一个自给自足的广告生态系统,以连接其第一方属性。[5]

第一方数据正逐渐成为广告商的关键资产;苹果公司的决定进一步促使广告商优先考虑数据的收集、完善和货币化。苹果最终将取消跨供应商的数据共享,这也是许多用户长期以来的抱怨。这样一来,"围墙花园 "将取代由这种数据做法资助的开放网络。在许多方面,媒体公司和商业公司将无法区分。线性商务的法则不再只是品牌及其内容战略或出版商及其电子商务发展。

Facebook 是一家广告商,利用电子商务销售更多的第一方广告。亚马逊是一家利用第一方广告销售更多商品的电子商务零售商。苹果公司可能会帮助这两家公司实现这两个目标,同时加强自己的隐私保护措施,这也是对即将过去的广告时代的一种解决方案。

作者:Web Smith | 编辑:Hilary Milnes

备忘录中央人民政府的顿悟

A recent fireside chat between Parade co-founder and chief executive Cami Tellez and a small, private group of 2PM’s Executive Members was more than enlightening. It ended with one attendee proclaiming, “I was nothing at 23 years old” (Tellez is 23), and another confirming, “She’s ahead of the curve.” One of those responses was from a heralded retail executive with a decade of helping some of the most visible brands in America develop omnichannel presences. Every other member in attendance was equally esteemed in their own right.

Tellez represents many of traits familiar in the high-growth, modern retail industry, detailed in books like Lawrence Ingrassia’s Billion Dollar Brand Club. You know the commonalities weaved in and out of brands like Warby Parker, Away, Casper, and so on: the Ivy League pedigree, the summer internship with the well-respected Tusk Ventures, proximity to New York (or Los Angeles), and a coveted role with Rough Draft Ventures. But what separates Parade from earlier brands at similar stages is a combination of three attributes: profitability, supply chain management, and arbitrage in consumer behavior.

Ten minutes into the discussion with Tellez, it became clear. Her team identified a simple arbitrage that may define the coming years of desirable digitally-native brand growth. While Parade is an apparel and accessories retailer, the brand acquires and maintains customers like a consumer packaged goods brand. It’s more than a qualitative notion of community, brand awareness, or presence – terms that we often assign to apparel retailers. CPG brands operate quantitatively in distribution, shelf space, frequency, average order and lifetime values. Parade is a product that its consumers buy with a cadence more recognized in CPG or beauty brands. I recently spoke with Jann Parish, the former Chief Marketing Officer of Victoria’s Secret, about the opportunity ahead for Parade:

It looks like Parade is firing on all cylinders; product that performs, marketing that resonates and an avid, loyal (and growing) customer base.

Loyalty to an apparel manufacturer separates brands like Lululemon, Nike and Athleta from the specialty retailers that continue to struggle despite promotional events, large retail footprints, and unparalleled distribution. What separates brands like Lululemon from traditional retailers like Brooks Brothers, Aeropostale, or Forever 21 is two-fold: Winning brands require loyalty and repetition. This is where apparel culture meets CPG’s superpower.

On Applied Loyalty and Repetitive Sales

When you buy your groceries from Whole Foods, you choose the same products time and time again: Siete Foods for your tortilla chip cravings, Olipop for your root beer fix, and Jeni’s for your weekly ice cream binge. You do this almost without thinking, whether you’re purchasing through an Amazon app or roaming the store in person. You will find the same expressions of brand loyalty and purchase repetition in the aisles of Target. You choose the same diapers, the same premium razor blades, and the same non-aluminum deodorant. Again, you do this without much thought.

variants variance

While brands like Onnit, Native, Care/Of, or Schmidt’s exited for high eight or nine-figures, apparel brands who’ve grossed similar revenue figures have failed to achieve the same. This has been a bane to digitally-native brand founders like myself. But the growing successes of like-minded brands like Parade, Tracksmith, Madhappy, Summersalt, Rapha, and even Todd Snyder (founded in 2011 and acquired in 2015) may offer similar contexts. Parrish continued:

Parade has done a good job being an anti-Victoria’s Secret without calling itself one, that means less acquisition cost to fight VS and more dollars to its community. Similar to the approach Lululemon took years ago with its brand: it didn’t fight Nike. It won with performance and community. Parade has product performance and community nailed. A shrewd distribution strategy is its next step.

Community and loyalty can be interchanged in these assessments. Founded in 2019, Parade grew from zero to eight figures in annual revenue within 18 months. One of Maveron’s investors in the brand, Natalie Dillon, recently shared:

Their brand love is off the charts. In their first 12 months they acquired nearly 100,000 customers. The brand did $10M in sales in its first full fiscal year in 2020 with about 70% coming organically. [1]

These are extraordinary numbers, and while there are dozens of brands doing greater merchandise volume, few are selling to so many customers so early in their life cycles. Nearly 15 months into a pandemic that shuttered a large cohort of the retail industry, Parade’s latest valuation added to my curiosity about the brand. Tellez raised at a $70 million valuation from some of the smartest money in consumer investing: Lerer Hippeau, Greycroft, Vice Ventures, Shrug, and a who’s who of consumer founders and independent investors.

There are reputable, digitally-native fashion and accessories brands with gaudier revenue metrics but few if any have the ability to raise at a 5-6x multiple, a markup commonly held for brands that market repetitive products. And this is what may end up separating this new class of modern retailers from the 1.0 and 2.0 phases. They’ve figured out how to endear themselves to the customers in a manner reserved for another class of goods.

Like many business travelers, I likely own a dozen Lululemon tees in varying colors. Many were acquired on work trips after a number of near-instinctive visits to the retailer for a purchase that was as predictable as it could be. The 23-year-old brand is one of the rare apparel retailers to understand that “variants variance.” Lululemon manufactures and subtly markets products so effectively that customers find reason to revisit their stores, often for the same SKU in a different variant. This is CPG loyalty manifested by an apparel retailer. Once applied to an earlier-staged brand like Parade, it becomes difficult to question the valuation.

Brands like Parade excel at earning loyalty expressed through repetition. Their marketing dashboard likely shares “repeat purchasers” as a key performance indicator whereas many apparel brands associate average order value (AOV) and “time to payback” as their key metrics. More brands of this generation will pattern themselves like the consumer goods that own the right shelves on the right aisles of your favorite grocery and market retailers. In doing so, they’ll teach the old dogs the tricks that they should have already learned.

作者:Web Smith | 编辑:Hilary Milnes 

备忘录炎热行李箱之夏

Away is about to launch a travel accessories capsule in the midst of lingering pandemic. Is co-founder Jen Rubio on to something? The answer lies in the macroeconomic statistics.

On March 16, 2020, domestic air travel reached a notable point in its crash: slow at first, and then all at once. Daily traveler throughput fell to under 1 million. Just a month later and certain days saw only 90,000 Americans travel the country’s airports. Over a year later, as travel returns, so will the brands, marketplaces, and other businesses that serve the industry. It’s shaping up to become a hot luggage summer.

One day last April at Chicago’s Midway Airport, I stood in a terminal that spanned three football fields. I was an hour early to my evening flight and the only customer in the entire terminal. A month later, I returned. Little had changed as the national throughput number climbed to just 190,477. That number wouldn’t return to 1 million or more until Thanksgiving 2020.

Over the pandemic period of March 2020 and March 2021, I safely flew nearly 40 flights between cities like New York, Miami, Chicago, Austin, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. During the months of April through June, it seemed as though air travel may never rebound to its former self. According to Rafat Ali, the founder and CEO of Skift, there will be lingering reminders of the pandemic in the air travel industry well into 2022. Ali:

Even when we’re vaccinated to a certain point, even when we reach herd immunity, we will be wearing masks [on airplanes]. We can expect that this will last for at least through the year.

Even so, the return of domestic air travel seems to be on its way. In March 2021, a group of six entrepreneurs recently organized a business retreat. The air travel date was planned for June 16 and the destination was set for Montauk, New York. In the month of June, there are close to zero available properties on Airbnb and local fixture Gurney’s Montauk Resort is at capacity. These weren’t the only signs of density in New York’s Long Island region. The data proves that domestic travel is in for a leisure boom. Ali later added:

Domestic is in for a leisure boom. Summer is going to be frantic.

The numbers add up. Domestic travel is already back to 60% of 2019’s numbers and hotel occupancy has finally exceeded 60% for the first time since March 2020. Kayak searches are rising 27% week-over-week. Short term rentals are facing a shortage in availability in many of the travel hotspots around the country. Airbnb is reflecting the highest property rental prices in the company’s history. Ali noted that both the United States and the United Kingdom have done well with vaccination rollouts. He anticipates a travel corridor between the two countries. With travel data beginning to reflect a hopeful conclusion to the global pandemic, there is one company who may serve as the bellwether.

Commerce Follows Travel

In February of 2020, Away‘s website was ranked 16,500 on the internet according to the web traffic that it received. By July, that number fell to a ranking of 52,836, but climbed to a hopeful ranking of 24,882 around Christmas thanks to savvy marketing and promotion by new CEO Jen Rubio and her team. Today, Away has steadied around a 30,000 ranking according to data provided to us by Charm.io, representing a 20% drop in web traffic over the previous three months. This may be a lot of information to chew on but consider the implications: Away is perhaps the largest luggage seller in the United States by gross merchandising volume (though Samsonite likely sells more units of luggage and accessories).

Away’s trailing 12 months. More data at 2pml.com/dnvb

In similar fashion, German luggage manufacturer (and LVMH subsidiary) Rimowa followed a nearly identical trajectory of digital foot traffic, though its volume does not yet compare to Away’s and its target market differs. In the conversation with Rafat Ali, we compared notes between the industry-at-large and the consumer companies impacted by the overarching trends. Thanks to a once in a one-hundred year event, Away’s traffic fell.

But given its current position as a market leader, its social reach, employee count, and relative sales metrics (see more here: 2pml.com/dnvb), 2021 may be Away’s year to far-exceed even its highest former expectations.

Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, the travel brand grossed well into the nine-figures in annual revenue. With the decision to release Away’s new travel collection, Rubio’s marketing and consumer investment in this reemergence of domestic travel is significant enough of a decision to serve as a public interpretation of the positive private industry data mentioned above. The travel industry’s trends more than justify her decision to bet on this summer. Like Peloton, Mirror, Tonal, and Rogue dominated the direct-to-consumer fitness narratives of the previous year, I suspect that Away (and other travel consumer companies) will have similar trajectory narratives, finding their way to the top 100 fastest growing digitally native brands that 2PM tracks.

And if so, we may see the public offering that the team and its investors have long-earned. Either way, domestic air travel and the industries that support it are on their way to fuller terminals. That means more carry-ons, more Airbnbs, and everything in between for this hot luggage summer.

作者:Web Smith | 编辑:Hilary Milnes | 艺术:亚历克斯-雷米