备忘录安装 Shopify

一位Youtuber和他的制作团队在一家豪华探险服务公司的帮助下冒险前往南极洲，忍受了 "寒冷 "到不需要手套的温度，在这种温和的条件下忍受了50个小时，声称这是他做过的体力上最困难的事情，然后在徒步4个小时到达山脊后插上了Shopify的旗帜。"野兽先生宣称："现在这里是Shopify山了。这段赞助视频非常老套，也过于戏剧化，但没人能说它没有达到预期效果。

上一份报告进入野兽先生

吉米-唐纳森（Jimmy "MrBeast" Donaldson）是一位杰出的营销家、创造者、商人和慈善家。对于 Shopify 来说，现在的时机再好不过了。在经历了艰难的一年之后，公司需要一些精明的营销、价值创造、新业务和慈善事业。从这个角度看（也仅仅是从这个角度看），双方的合作是有意义的。在 12 分钟的广告中，唐纳森花了大量时间称赞 Shopify；自12 月 24 日发布以来，该广告已被观看了 6100 万次。从这个角度来看，这个数字是超级碗典型广告收视率的一半以上，而我认为其成本（700 万美元）只是超级碗的一小部分。

为了向广告商表示敬意，团队在攀登过一座岩石山峰后，插上了一面旗帜，并宣布这座处女峰将永远被称为 Shopify 山。

不过，虽然MrBeast店面的年收入已达到八位数（Charm.io估计年收入为4500万美元），但我认为Shopify正在为自己的崛起之年做好准备。2023年将是Shopify的企业级商户年，它试图在竞争中更胜一筹（即Salesforce的Commerce Cloud和Adobe的Magento）。Shopify 曾经以吸引希望成为下一个 "野兽先生"（至少在商品销售方面）的消费者而闻名，现在正成为大型零售商、市场和品牌的首选。这就是 Shopify 要攀登的山峰。

在经历了股价暴跌 74% 的一年后，Shopify 开始重 "质 "轻 "量"--我用这个词来形容其不断增加的 "大型 GMV "零售商目录并不恰当。在过去的一年里，许多以线上为先导的品牌抛弃了它们的定制购物车，选择了更广阔的天地。Supreme转向 Shopify 就是一个例子：

Supreme 将在 2023 年迎来新的开始。据dropsgg刚刚透露，该品牌已将其在线商店从之前的平台更换为 Shopify 的电子商务服务。据悉，此次更换拥有更好的僵尸防范系统，并将于下周开始运行。

另一个例子是ButcherBox，该公司正在逐页推出 Shopify 转换，将定制构建留给外包支持和更先进的工具。在《TechCrunch》和《How I Built This》等刊物上宣布了其 6 亿美元的年收入后，该公司也（悄悄地）证实了这一举措。摘自 2022 年 11 月的Shopify Masters 播客：

时至今日，ButcherBox 仍与第三方农场、加工厂、切割厂、配送厂、运输公司、客户服务公司和技术公司合作。这也是该公司使用 Shopify 开网店的重要原因。

因此，当唐纳森花了这么多精力把他的 50 小时挑战之一变成 Shopify 的广告时，我认为这是该公司在进行更大规模的市场推广之前提高温度的一种尝试。时间会证明市场推广的效果。但作为一个独立的项目，其影响力已经足够大了。甚至还有人试图为尼泊尔布特瓦尔的 Shopify 山命名（至少其中一张图片来自唐纳森的南极之旅）。整个subreddits都在讨论这段视频的吸引力（或鄙视）--我想，对于人缘极佳的唐纳森来说，这样的反应并不多见。

Shopify 早该恢复状态了。在不断增长的企业零售商目录的推动下，该公司的黑色星期五和网络星期一创下了历史新高。这相当于销售额比 2021 年增长了 19%。2022 年的运营亏损额为 6.19 亿美元，公司将投入 10 亿美元建设 Shopify Fulfillment 网络，因此抓住大型零售商及其商品销售总值是未来盈利的关键。这与其自身对 2023 年的预测一致。

野兽先生的购物赞助视频并不是他最好的作品。但估计每天会有 30 万新用户，我相信他的热情粉丝会原谅他的。至于 Shopify，赞助视频提醒我们，它面临着自己独特的挑战。Shopify 既是一家金融服务公司，也是一家电子商务技术提供商。虽然这则原生广告很低俗，但它让人们意识到，Shopify 可能是一家价值被低估的上市公司。

对于 Shopify 来说，一切都与 GMV 有关。Shopify发展成熟收入流的方法不再仅仅是小型商家（MrBeast的受众正是这些商家）和订阅收入。据知情人士透露，2022 年，Shopify 超过 30% 的收入是订阅驱动的。但我相信，这种商业模式正在演变。Shopify Payments 向商家收取交易额的 2.4-2.9%，Shopify Capital 正在发展其贷款产品，销售点系统继续吸引全渠道友好型零售商。

Shopify 需要一批九位数的在线零售商来扭转局面，并提醒投资者它仍将是未来商业的重要贡献者。这可不是一座小山。

更新（1/3/2023）： Shopify 推出了 "Commerce Components by Shopify"（CCS）。该公司通过新闻稿宣布，其目标客户是企业零售商："Shopify进入下一个增长时代：重新定义企业零售"。该技术堆栈允许将 Shopify 集成到现有系统中。上文提到的 ButcherBox 就是一个例子。这家食品零售商网站的大部分内容仍然是定制的，而赠品流程则由第三方托管。Shopify 补充道

Shopify 的 Commerce Components 为企业零售商提供了两全其美的解决方案：使用 Shopify 的基础、高性能组件（如我们的结账系统，其转换率比普通结账系统高 72%，在移动端高 91%）以及灵活的 API，以构建与零售商首选后台服务无缝集成的动态客户体验。

今天刚刚公布的企业零售商名单包括：Mattel、Glossier、JB Hi-Fi、Steve Madden、Spanx 和 Staples：美泰、Glossier、JB Hi-Fi、Steve Madden、Spanx 和 Staples。

作者：Web Smith | 艺术：Alex Remy

备忘录网络五号

More than a quantitative measure of retail health, this year’s span of five days – beginning on Thanksgiving and ending on Cyber Monday – may serve as a judge of the entire economy. If text messages like these are any indication, our economy is coming out of its hole:

Positive news: we absolutely, unequivocally CRUSHED BFCM week.

Black Friday fought the good fight against inflation and cost of living hikes, this year. But there’s more to this weekend’s holiday shopping story than that day. Our Blackest Friday report began with a Jeff Bezos quote: “Don’t buy a fridge, hold on to your money.” So to spend or not to spend? This was the question. The answer was a resounding ‘yes’; consumers spent despite the economic forces at play. First, the top line numbers.

  • According to Adobe, online sales for Black Friday reached a record $9.12 billion, a 2.3% year-over-year increase.
  • Adobe anticipated that weekend online sales on the Saturday and Sunday on Thanksgiving weekend would hit $9 billion on their own, while Cyber Monday sales would hit $11.2-11.7 billion, versus $10.7 billion last year.
  • This year, mobile shopping hit a new record, accounting for 48% of online sales, up from 44% last year. Buy now, pay later schemes also had a big year – a sign of the times.
  • BNPL orders increased 78% during the holiday week (November 19-25) compared to the week prior, while BNPL revenue increased 81% in the same time frame.
  • Exercise equipment, toys, smart home devices, audio equipment, games and gaming devices, Macbooks and Dyson products were all top sellers. Apparel, sporting goods and TVs all saw peak discounts over the weekend.

In all, Adobe data indicates 2022’s “Cyber Five” is on track to generate a total of $34.8 billion in online sales, a 2.8% increase over 2021’s data and a drop off from the projected 7% growth that analysts predicted. A few things are happening at once.

In the past several years, retailers successfully trained customers to shop earlier and earlier: Cyber 5 is more like October through December. This allowed for a steadier stream of high sales volume days – though none are expected to top Cyber Monday. The extension of the sales holiday also places less strain on logistics and supply chain efforts by spreading sales volume over 60-70 days rather than 6-7. As Adobe pointed out, savvy shoppers are waiting until December 1 to buy appliances, for instance, when discounts are expected to peak.

At the same time, inflation is the story of this season. A 2.8% increase is insignificant compared to the 7% projection. The 2.8% increase is less impressive when you consider the higher consumer pricing index (CPI). Discounts for the holiday weekend were also not as extreme, hinting that retailers are waiting to see how much is necessary in terms of markdowns before customers bite. As Axios calls it, it’s a “game of chicken” to see who gives in first: the customers making purchases vs. the retailers setting the prices. Last year, customers were scrambling to buy early to avoid everything selling out as supply chain backups gripped the season. USA Today reported on this year’s consumers bargain hunting before a different backdrop:

Due to elevated prices for food, rent, gasoline and other essentials, many people were being more selective, reluctant to spend unless there was a big sale. Some were dipping more into savings, turning to “buy now, pay later” services that allow payment in installments, or running up their credit cards at a time when the Federal Reserve is hiking rates to cool the U.S. economy.

The Two Winners: BNPL and Physical Stores

One industry segment that is benefitting from the current economic shortfall are the “buy now, pay later” family of companies. These platforms removed one more barrier out of the way of cash-sensitive consumers, allowing them to pay for products over the course of four or more payments – minimizing up front costs. Holiday seasons are often mortgaged during times of economic distress.

In a US survey, 60% of people were found to be more likely to use BNPL because of inflation, and 53% were using BNPL out of necessity. Forty-five percent said they were were most likely to use BNPL when their finances are tight. That means that Klarna’s 2022 troubles aren’t to be blamed on a decline in interest on BNPL. But rather, a more tenuous financial outlook makes people more reliant on services like BNPL. For many, it’s a way to make purchases now without taking on credit card debt. It’s a dangerously unregulated substitute for traditional debt. CNBC recently explained how Klarna’s rebound may be tied to increase usage:

The Stockholm-based startup saw 85% erased from its market value in a so-called “down round” earlier this year, taking the company’s valuation down from $46 billion to $6.7 billion, as investor sentiment surrounding tech shifted over fears of a higher interest rate environment.

This Cyber Five’s winner? The physical store. This year: Walmart, Target and Kohl’s all overtook Amazon in terms of online Black Friday discount searches according to data from Captify. Walmart searches surged 386%, followed by Target, then Kohl’s, then Amazon. That’s telling for a few reasons. People seem to associate Amazon with the best deals less than they used to. And more people are likely to search for deals across stores and online, knowing they can strike both at any of the big-box retailers before Amazon. According to MasterCard SpendingPulse data, in store sales increased 12% year over year. RetailNext, tracking foot traffic to stores, found that traffic rose 7% this year on Black Friday compared to 2021. Here was the takeaway from Placer.ai:

Shopping malls saw far and above average visits. Indoor malls saw visits up 261% compared to the daily average for Q1-Q3 2022, outlet malls saw visits up almost 366%, and open-air lifestyle centers saw visits up around 151%. Compared to the first three weeks of November 2022, visits were up about 277% (indoor), 395% (outlet), and almost 160% (open-air lifestyle centers), respectively, at those mall types.

Going into Black Friday, we forecasted some of these key elements, to include muted growth and the return to physical stores:

​​(1) The recessionary effects are likely to cause muted growth in eCommerce performance in a YoY basis. Searching for bargains, more customers will be pursuing in-store purchases where deals may be greater. (2) Try to conserve your money this season to prepare for any additional market downturns. It’s likely that large purchases may be fewer and farther between in 2022 YoY basis. (3) eCommerce marketplaces will do better than traditional DTC brands’ online stores because utility purchases are likely to rise vs. luxury and other purchases that signal high-discretionary income.

But about that traditional DTC brand thought, it wasn’t altogether accurate. Shopify noted: “More than 52 million consumers globally purchased from brands powered by Shopify this year, an 18% increase from 2021.” Shopify reported promising Black Friday sales figures for its merchants; Shopify merchants brought in $1.52 million a minute on Thanksgiving and $3.5 million per minute at its Black Friday peak, setting a record with $3.36 billion and $7.5 billion between Friday and Monday. This was a 19% increase in sales and a 21% increase on a constant currency basis. But this is more a reflection of how Shopify has grown as an enterprise retail provider than as a snapshot of the greater whole.

Cyber Monday Data (via Adobe)

According to Adobe’s data, consumers rang in $11.3 billion on Cyber Monday, seeing the industry to a 5.8% YoY improvement and a whopping $12.8 million earned per minute. Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights:

With oversupply and a softening consumer spending environment, retailers made the right call this season to drive demand through heavy discounting. It spurred online spending to levels that were higher than expected, and reinforced e-commerce as a major channel to drive volume and capture consumer interest.

In all, the Cyber Five earned $35.27 billion, a 4% increase over 2021’s eCommerce-driven holiday season. This number is even bigger when you consider the entirety of the shopping season: November 1 – November 28 rang in $107.7 billion with $210 billion expected through December 31. How did this happen? Adobe Analytics noted that discounting hit records highs in 2022 to offset the rising costs of living. And BNPL services like Affirm saw volume rise 85% vs. the prior week, increasing revenue 88% over that time period. One surprising line from the analytics data provided by Adobe:

Strong consumer spending across Cyber Week was driven by net-new demand, and not just higher prices.

Consumers came out for the week and chose the glee over doom, there will be study after study written about this holiday season. It wasn’t all black and white. With the holiday shopping season at its peak, the statistics have been unpredictable at best but not altogether surprising. Retail is irrational and retailers are hoping that it stays that way over the closing four weeks of the holiday shopping season. Jeff Bezos went unheard, consumers chose the 30% off refrigerator over holding on to their money. Let’s just hope that the good news extends and the economy continues its slow recovery.

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes，美术：Alex Remy 和 Christina Williams

备忘录周转金

A recent WSJ article began: “Rising Rates Boost Companies’ Focus on Working Capital Management.” Times are getting tougher for small business owners and Shopify sees an opportunity to expand its market position by stepping into fortify its suite of service to merchants.

Shopify has smartly built efficient systems to manage payments and approval processes based on an “instant settlement of eCommerce sales” (according to PYMNTS) within days of the capital request. Working capital is the company’s next frontier. It represents a flow of information between Shopify’s clientele and the company itself.

PYMNTS’ research has estimated that there remain more than a trillion dollars of outstanding receivables out there that smaller firms are “carrying” for larger suppliers on a given day. Part of the proverbial stutter step is tied to hiccups in back office approvals or the simple fact that SMBs are understaffed.

Shopify’s lending business is just six years old but it’s never been more important. It remains a small but influential part of the company’s organization. It’s poised to grow as more merchants benefit from cash loans to keep operations humming. A new report from The Information details how lending could emerge as a bright spot for the eCommerce services provider, pointing out that the company’s new loans jumped 30% in the third quarter over last year, to more than $500 million in gross revenue. That outpaces merchants’ sales volume growth in five of the past six quarters, underscoring the position that these businesses are in as inflation and a looming recession depresses eCommerce growth after a boom.

Business loans to merchants are a sure sign that Shopify is (smartly) doubling down on expanding its suite of services it offers to its merchants, feeding the ever-important Shopify ecosystem it’s built to become a one-stop shop for anything a business owner needs to run a retail business. With lending, Shopify makes it possible to keep the flywheel going: merchants can reinvest the upfront cash into their businesses, including continuing to spend on marketing, logistics and fulfillment. From The Information:

Shopify’s services revenue as a percentage of its overall merchant sales volume hit a record high in the third quarter, which the company attributed in part to merchants leaning more on those services to help pay for costs like inventory, marketing and hiring while inflation soars. Offering merchants cash advances can also keep them hooked on the Shopify ecosystem. “You have those particular merchants captive, and it’s an audience that’s very focused on Shopify—just throw the kitchen sink at them and see how much stickiness there is to the platform,” said Ken Wong, managing director for software research at Oppenheimer & Co.

Investing money into its merchant pool to keep them from suffering cutbacks and further blows to their businesses is a move that favors Shopify and its ability to stay competitive: brands are less likely to bite the hand that feeds it by, say, defecting to another platform in the midst of this turndown. Even as competitors like Stripe and PayPal offer cash advances, they aren’t as well-positioned to offer the complete suite of services that Shopify does. And that’s even more so when you line up the competitors Shopify has worked hard to box out and could offer merchants similar services.

Here’s an example of Shopify’s hold on the payments ecosystem and this is just the B2C side of its business.

Take Amazon: When Amazon launched a “Buy with Prime” service that would be compatible for Shopify merchants to enable Prime benefits into their checkout flows, Shopify retaliated by discouraging use of the plug-in. It was a muscle move to convince merchants that Shopify offers merchants all they need – and that they don’t need Amazon’s assistance. Whether that’s true or false remains to be seen. For Amazon, Buy with Prime was a bid for the dollars of Shopify merchants. We reported on the risk Amazon posed to Shopify in September, when the company changed its tune around Buy with Prime to be more explicitly opposed:

And that could be a bad thing for Shopify as Amazon aims to become more of a discovery platform for DTC brands, essentially letting them get a piece of the pie without fully committing to being an Amazon brand. Shopify is still at a disadvantage here unless it becomes more of a marketplace on its own. Lutke has spoken against Shopify becoming a “kingmaker” for brands. It prefers to remain brand agnostic. But leaders change their minds often; sometimes it only takes three months to change tune.

The rise in loans comes as Shopify continues to bulk up its merchant services to keep them housed within the Shopify ecosystem. On Monday, it announced a global alliance with EY that’s designed to help merchants scale faster with fewer risks, as well as reduce friction in selling certain products globally such as alcohol and pharmaceuticals. In short, Shopify understands that “very large merchants want to use Shopify, but demand that we work with them through existing system integrators.” Deloitte and Accenture round out the shortlist of SIs. Past investments and partnerships like Deliverr and Klaviyo also bulk up Shopify’s one-stop services for merchants who may be feeling the squeeze in areas like fulfillment and marketing.

It’s still a sign of precarious times – Shopify offering cash loans to merchants is not unlike mall real estate companies bailing out struggling retailers in the early days of the pandemic. But by positioning itself as a necessary lifeline to its small businesses, Shopify’s setting itself up to be a necessary force in the next era of eCommerce, one that looks more like fintech than eCommerce. It’s making it more difficult for companies, adjacent and competitive-minded alike, to step into Shopify’s ecosystem.

By Web Smith | Edited by Hilary Milnes with art my Alex Remy and Christina Williams