第 345 期:武装叛军

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乔安-金-赫林(Joann King Herring)坐在客厅对面,一如既往地生动活泼、引人入胜。我站在她的世界里。作为休斯顿耶稣会预备学校 16 岁的大三学生,我是一个中下层的局外人,被推入了一个我当时还无法完全理解的世界。20 世纪 80 年代的地缘政治问题早已过去(当时我们都这么认为)。但是,这位 70 岁的社交名媛和慈善家仍然以影响外交政策自居,在位于休斯顿著名的河橡树区的一位共同朋友的家中,赫林仍然大展身手。在这个大城市的一个小角落里,她是一位影响全世界成果的巨人。

那是 1999 年,也许是我第一次听到 "武装叛军 "这个词。赫林是一位名叫查理-威尔逊得克萨斯州议员的朋友,在那次会面四年后,他们的故事《查理-威尔逊的战争》登上了《纽约时报》畅销书排行榜[1],并于 2007 年被拍成好莱坞大片。这是一个关于短期成功和长期失败的故事。这是一个关于 "做得太少 "和 "做得太多 "的故事。影片讲述了两个美国人游说美国政府资助抵抗当时苏联在阿富汗的占领军的故事。

现年 90 岁的琼恩和她的朋友查理在长达 10 年的 "旋风行动"[2] 中为叛军提供了武器在冲突即将结束时,一位受战争影响国家的官员后来对现任美国总统说:"你正在创造一个科学怪人。总有一种

但是,赫林和威尔逊的努力在短期内奏效了。他们武装了叛军,叛军赢了。至于他们的劳动成果是否对全球战争与和平产生了净正面或净负面的影响,那就留给国家安全专家们去研究吧。这则轶事的相关性很简单:从 1979 年到 1989 年的十年间,"武装叛军 "的行为保持了三个组成部分:(1) 工具,(2) 金钱,(3) 心理支持。

叛军用美国的工具、美国的资金,以及他们得到美国政府全力支持的承诺,击败了全副武装的俄罗斯军事机器。这向对方军队表明,资金、工具和叛乱将继续下去。无穷无尽的补给、武力心理战击败了不可战胜的军队。

Shopify 和武装叛军

哈雷-芬克尔斯坦在 Twitter 上:"武装叛军 @Shopify-style,三步指南:1.在全美建立履约中心网络 🕸️2.允许小企业利用这些中心 📦3.加入机器人 🤖 结果:平价产品以两天为周期运往 99% 的美国。💪 pic.twitter.com/a6KIptqsbm / Twitter"

武装叛军 @Shopify-style,三步指南:1.在全美建立履约中心网络 🕸️2.允许小企业利用这些中心 📦3.加入机器人 🤖 结果:平价产品以两天为周期运往 99% 的美国。💪 pic.twitter.com/a6KIptqsbm

Shopify 在企业号召力方面做得非常出色:我们武装叛军。在超越 Ebay 成为北美第二大电子商务生态系统之后,Shopify 始终认为亚马逊是下一个目标--它本身就是一支不可战胜的军队。Shopify 曾经仅因其在小型电子商务领域的作用而闻名,现在它提供财务处理、贷款、履约、硬件和开发人员生态系统等服务,只要商家有能力支付其服务费用,就可以随叫随到。

Shopify 的存在基本上是为了武装叛军。我们希望很多人都能出去与亚马逊竞争。

创始人兼首席执行官 Tobi Lütke

但是,如果在没有心理支持的情况下执行工具和资金这两个组成部分,会发生什么呢?Ruby on Rails 的创建者大卫-汉森(David Hansson)在谈到 Shopify 在日益稠密的电子商务环境中所扮演的角色时,创造了 "武装叛军"(arming the rebels)一词[3]。它暗示 Shopify 正在向上冲(的确如此)。但是,Shopify 也需要向下冲刺,以保持自己的地位。

Shopify 让投资者兴奋不已,因为它越来越被视为亚马逊电子商务霸主地位最有可能的挑战者。许多传统零售商和网络零售商都试图迎头痛击亚马逊的 "万能商店",而 Shopify 则成功地为个体商家提供了相同的技术和能力,但却拥有更多的控制权。[4]

Shopify 的商家几乎拥有一切可以利用的资源,但有一点除外。该公司在支持使用其平台的品牌方面进展缓慢。由于担心被视为偏袒一方,Shopify 至今仍犹豫不决,不愿意提供一个可以将品牌长期锁定在其生态系统中的优势。没错,这就是武装叛军所需的三个要素之一:心理支持。

没有的大型游戏广告

屏幕截图 2020-02-02 at 10.07.59 PM

我一直在等待 Shopify 的超级碗广告,但毫无结果。我想让这个品牌在最多的观众面前讨论它随着时间的推移而发生的演变:它的生态系统所培育的机构、它向金融技术的进军、Shopify 的发明所开创的DTC 时代,以及最终将充斥其 3PL 的机器人。

Shopify 通过向一些反叛者提供运营或扩张所需的资金,武装了这些反叛者。现在,它需要影响其平台上企业的需求曲线。Shopify 需要成为其品牌的传播者。

武装叛军 "这句话让人充满希望。这意味着,Shopify 正在向上发力(的确如此),但也需要向下发力来保持自己的地位。

当Squarespace的超级碗广告首播时,它对Shopify的市场地位构成了足够的威胁,以至于该公司的企业推特(Twitter)在一连串的推文中回应了他们的小竞争对手,这让人感觉有些出格。Shopify 目前的市值为 540 亿美元,而 Squarespace 则小得多,而且还是一家私营公司。

推特上的 Shopify:"嘿,@SquareSpace 我们也相信支持独立企业!事实上,在 #WinonaMN 有 40 多家企业使用了 @Shopify。因此,我们将在 #BigGame 期间尽可能多地推广它们。#WelcometoWinona #SupportingIndependents pic.twitter.com/CPq8Ld6Pgl / Twitter" #WelcometoWinona #支持独立企业

嘿,@SquareSpace 我们也相信支持独立企业!事实上,在 #WinonaMN 有超过 40 家企业使用了 @Shopify。因此,我们将在 #BigGame 期间尽可能多地推广这些企业。#WelcometoWinona #支持独立企业 pic.twitter.com/CPq8Ld6Pgl

鉴于 Shopify 已经赢得的市场地位,吕特克在心理支持上的立场显然必须改变,而且应该从超级碗 LIV 开始。Shopify 的促销能力可以减少叛乱竞争,同时缩小与它所挑战的现任公司之间的差距:亚马逊。Shopify 必须发展成为自己的市场。随着中小型市场零售商获客成本的上升,亚马逊已成为零售商提高渠道顶部知名度的合理合作伙伴。摘自2PM的《熟悉的策略》:

亚马逊正在收集消费者数据,以成为高效的垂直经销商。亚马逊产品将继续在产品页面上占据优先位置。这样一来,反对派营销人员的不满就有了依据。与亚马逊自有品牌竞争的外部品牌可能会继续受到惩罚。这家西雅图电子商务巨头似乎正在为他们的数据采集行为(这一过程催生了无数自有品牌)受到质疑的那一天做准备。

Lütke很可能反对这种想法:通过选择品牌或产品以市场的形式进行展示,Shopify就成了某种程度上的 "造王者"。所谓"造王者",是指对候选人的价值有巨大影响力的个人或组织。这个人或组织利用政策、金融和竞争力量来影响接班人。我认为,向商家提供贷款或预付款是另一种形式的 "造王"。现在,Shopify 已经开始销售金融产品,所以就没有什么可争论的了。

Shopify的护城河已被详细讨论过:社区和合作伙伴生态系统是人们想到的两个流行词组。但是,这家总部位于渥太华的 SaaS 公司在推广支持生态系统的企业方面却划清了界限;该公司很少将流量和媒体关注度推向在生态系统成长的企业。

旋风行动的三大资源之一是心理支持。在 Shopify 使用这个短语的背景下,第三个资源缺失了。如果 Shopify 能够通过在 Twitter 上宣传独立零售商来捍卫自己与 Squarespace 的竞争地位,那么他们的管理团队也应该能够自如地支持自己的市场。

2019 年 12 月,Shopify.com的访问量接近 4700 万,其中超过 40% 的流量来自美国。虽然官方数据尚未公布,但观看超级碗比赛的人数超过了 1.5 亿。在这些观众中,有可能是想创办自己公司的潜在消费者,有可能是想为 Shopify 建站的开发者,也有可能是想从 Shopify 购物的消费者。

亚马逊(Amazon)、谷歌(Google)、微软(Microsoft)、沃尔玛(Walmart)、Hulu、Quibi、威瑞森(Verizon)和 Squarespace 都在比赛期间投放了广告。然而,直接面向消费者的品牌却明显缺席,它们被高昂的经营成本拒之门外。试想一下,一个耗资 570 万美元、时长 30 秒的广告能让数千万美国人访问marketplace.shopify.com。当这些潜在客户、开发者和消费者到达时:他们将看到 Shopify 最伟大的品牌--新的、旧的、成熟的和新鲜的--的集合。Shopify 赢得的不仅仅是新客户或潜在合作伙伴。Shopify 还将影响依赖于三大资源的众多品牌的知名度、增长和生存能力。

外电2013 年 6 月的一篇报道[5]中,爱德华-卢特瓦克(Edward Luttwak)列出了武装叛军的五条规则:(1)弄清谁是你的朋友;(2)准备好做所有的工作;(3)不要放弃任何你不想要的东西;(4)不要招致更大势力的等价反击;(5)为终局奠定基础。对于 Shopify 来说,终局就是强调需求方经济学。对于那些依赖 Shopify 不断增加的工具套件的公司来说,他们必须不断发展壮大,才能继续成为 B2B 用户。

1999 年在休斯顿的那个晚上结束时,我鼓起勇气问了赫林一两个问题。那天晚上,我穿着漂亮的蓝色西装外套,所以比平时更有自信。我们在一门课程上从一位校友那里了解到 "旋风行动",但当时这个故事还没有广为人知。因此,那天晚上,在麦迪逊大道的公关人员对她的回答进行打磨之前,我有幸与她进行了交谈。我向赫林女士提出了一个 16 岁学生都会提出的简单问题:"你从中学到了什么?"她的回答大意是:"我们应该给他们更多、更快的东西。时间拖得太长了。我们本可以在三四年内完成十年的工作"。

当你武装叛军时,要竭尽全力确保他们获胜。他们是在为供应商而战,也是在为自己的福祉而战。毕竟,他们的战争就是你们的战争。

点击这里阅读第 345 期

Web Smith 报道,Hilary Milnes 编辑 |约 2PM

Member Brief: The Case for Consideration

In the direct to consumer era, “last-click attribution” has overshadowed all marketing reason, it’s become the priority for data-driven marketers. With spend shifting to the bottom of the funnel: Facebook, Google, and now Amazon (FGA) are able to draft off of the contributions of top-funnel marketing channels. In turn, FGA is able to charge premiums for the tangible data that they can provide retailers. As a result, many brands miss the opportunity to reach customers more efficiently. Retail is overwhelmingly ignoring the middle of the funnel.

本会员简报专为以下人士设计 执行委员为了方便加入,您可以点击下面的链接,获取数百份报告、我们的 DTC 权力清单和其他工具,帮助您做出高水平的决策。

在此加入

第 300 期:内容先于商业

DTC growth efficiency and paying it forward. There’s a relatively new documentary on HBO called Momentum Generation. The short film chronicles a group of young surfers who were pursuing the dream of monetizing their craft (turning pro). They wanted to become professionals at a time when Americans weren’t making a living off of the sport. There is a key point in the documentary when one of the surfer’s mothers professes her appreciation for providing an informal shelter to the motley crew of young men. In her home, they wouldn’t have to worry about food or a roof over their heads. These comforts allowed them to focus on honing their abilities and building their audiences. But it also provided outsized commercial opportunity that wouldn’t have otherwise existed.

If you’ve ever followed action sports, you may recognize the names: Kelly Slater, Rob Machado, Taylor Knox, and Shane Dorian. These are but a few of the household names from that home of then-amateur surfers. The group and its household was credited with defining a sport for an entire generation. They pushed each other, they collaborated, the competed, and they complimented each other’s talents and abilities. It was the perfect storm of opportunity.

Everyone who paid attention to surf media in the 1990s will have heard of Momentum, not because it was artfully made—it wasn’t—but because the 1992 film’s screechy punk/metal soundtrack and hyper-aggressive slash-and-aerial surfing really did announce the arrival of a new generation of young dudes who shredded waves into way smaller pieces than the reigning old dudes. 

Momentum Generation is Postmodern by Accident

What’s the point? We are entering a phase of online consumerism that makes it ever harder to sell, grow, and retain customers effectively. Costs have risen and attention spans have dwindled. One solution that brands often ignore is long tail and risky: building an audience early on. Curating a community and then selling to it. From Issue No. 277 – The Law of 100:

Without a strong group of early adopters, you will not efficiently achieve the attention of the masses. The first 100 are the foundation. Without the support of the 100, the masses will not adopt. Made famous by Simon Sinek, heed the diffusion of innovation theory: the early majority will not try something until someone else tries it first. Brands are judged by this early majority.

A deeper dive into the hysteria around the pioneering group of surfers and you may recognize that this well-done HBO documentary doesn’t get made without the incredible b-roll and spare footage from the shooting of the 1991 short film and 1992 short film, “Momentum.” Produced, shot, and directed by one of the surfers themselves – Taylor Steele, he wanted a way to broadcast the lifestyle. Steele was just 20 years old at the time. His early film work catapulted his household of friends into relative stardom. And then the endorsement deals, media partnerships, and merchandising opportunities followed closely behind.

Content Before Commerce

Neistat’s intentions are largely similar to Warhol’s, albeit updated for the digital age. He laments that NYC has no real community for creators, and what it does have, frankly, “sucks.” Its his contention, however, that this is not due to a lack of energy or creative prowess, but a lack of a central location, a hub of creativity. 368 Broadway, he hopes, will fill that void. “What if,” he says, gesturing to his newly acquired fortress, “this can become the space for all creators?”

On the 368 Project

Brands should consider launching their media and community operations long before their first products hit the shelves. Whether intentionally or not, 368 is doing just that. Founded by Casey Neistat and Paul Leys, 368 is a new age spin on building the creative center of New York City and beyond. With a capable Director of eCommerce and headless commerce capability, 368 has the potential to build a customer acquisition engine. The entire organization is built to systematize the serendipity of its community member; it is a flywheel for creation, content and (eventually) commerce. And it’s an organization that many to-be entrepreneurs in the DTC space should observe.

368 on Twitter

@overtime brought 🏀 to 368 last weekend. They also brought Rachel and Larry.

When you walk into the New York building operated by Casey Neistat, you’ll feel a sensation of serendipity and opportunity. 368 is just a shared workspace to many observers, many of whom view the YouTube star’s business acumen through a skeptical lens. But it serves as more of a creative haven – a place born when its creator believes that the end is more important than the growing pains of its means.

Beme was Neistat’s venture prior to 368. This time last year, CNN and Neistat decided to part ways and you could see the anguish on his face in Neistat’s farewell video. It’s no coincidence that 368 operates within the same walls of the now-defunct headquarters of Beme. Neistat isn’t one to back down from psychological challenges. But the decision to heavily invest in 368 wasn’t just about the physical space; the space is home to competition, collaboration, and community. From our recent Member Brief, The Pivot to Tradition:

For DNVBs to position themselves for scale, it helps to have a built-in audience. Consider the successes of Fenty Beauty (Rihanna’s audience), Kylie Cosmetics (Jenner’s audience), Fashion Nova (Cardi B and 13 million Instagram followers), and Glossier (Into the Gloss).

368 has the make up to duplicate the successes of several of the top 30 community-driven brands in direct-to-consumer industry. One trait that the aforementioned brands share: they are driven by personality and relationships, not performance marketing. As such, paid marketing and advertising costs are relatively inexpensive for direct to consumer retailers like Kylie Cosmetics, Fenty Beauty, Fashion Nova, and Glossier – several of the foremost examples of DTC brands that run without the constraints of skyrocketing customer acquisition costs (CAC).

Wilson Hung on Twitter

1/ The golden era of DNVB is over. The times of inefficient growth enabled by first movers advantage & low ad-costs are over. Rising ad-costs will require brands to focus on operational excellence to maintain strong LTV:CAC ratios to sustain growth.

Adjusting to a dying era

Glossier is the child of Into The Gloss, the website Weiss started in 2010 to chronicle what women had in their beauty cabinets. It may sound simple, but there was a time when nobody curated their collections. For most, a bunch of (mostly expired) products took up all the shelf space.

Woman Made: Emily Weiss

There is a bit of irony in the story of the surfers of the “Momentum Generation”; they didn’t expect the appreciation for their lifestyle to leave the boundaries of their niche. But the content was superior and the lifestyle was appealing, even to those who’d never touch a surfboard. They validated their brand before ever selling a product, sponsorship, or media deal. A casual observer could say the same about Neistat and his 368 team. There is a $90 million / year retail operation that is ready and waiting to exist.

It’s not uncommon for early-stage DTC brands to raise $3.5 million before their first product is sold. These early-stage retailers are often in stealth mode for up to a year, developing product lines, establishing partnerships, and refining their online branding through agencies like Gin Lane, Wondersauce, and Red Antler.

Savvier brands will take this opportunity to build their own flywheels of content, community, and momentum. In doing so, founders have the opportunity to address one of the greatest limitations of this era of eCommerce – head on. Instead of buying an audience, brands should consider investing in growing authentic digital communities around their interests and product categories. Both options – paid CAC v. organic CAC – have their complications; but paying it forward offers sustainability, predictability, and an efficient path forward.

Read the No. 300 curation here.

报告人:Web Smith |大约 2PM