备忘录零售媒体的阶梯功能

 

2023 年：TikTok、微软、亚马逊、Pinterest 和 7-Eleven 的共同点比以往任何时候都多。

随着第三方数据的不断退化，我们突然发现每个平台都在蚕食 Meta 和谷歌的第二波数字广告浪潮。现在，数字广告正处于第三波浪潮之中，即由第一方数据定义的浪潮。要收集这些数据，就必须拥有结账流程，而这正是媒体和商业在 2023 年的交汇点。在许多方面，这是线性商务 2.0。

零售媒体网络是数字广告平台，允许零售商通过向品牌商和制造商出售其网站和移动应用程序上的广告空间来实现在线盈利。这些网络通常利用消费者的浏览和购买行为数据，向特定受众投放广告，还可能提供分析和报告工具，帮助零售商和广告商跟踪广告活动的效果。零售媒体网络的主要目的是在品牌和消费者之间架起一座桥梁，为零售商提供一种使其数字财产货币化的新方式，同时也为品牌和制造商提供一种接触消费者的新方式。

零售商不是通过媒体印象来推动在线交易，而是通过在线交易来销售媒体印象。这是一场赌注很大的游戏；Meta 和谷歌（曾经的双头垄断者）将以这样或那样的方式进行创新。但就目前而言，它们的漏洞似乎很大。

你到处都能读到相关报道。零售媒体成为新的热门话题，"打破双头垄断 "成为当下的流行语。以下是我们对2018 年零售媒体生态系统的预测：

在谷歌和 Facebook 的授意下，亚马逊为零售商增加广告支出的道路四通八达。亚马逊的优势非常明显，因为整个商务工作流程都可以在其内部完成。

  • 短期：亚马逊将推出效力更高的重定向广告
  • 长远来看：亚马逊将从使用侵入性较低的数据中获益
  • 亚马逊不会依赖谷歌的搜索数据
  • 亚马逊可获取独特的编辑内容
  • 亚马逊为您的收件箱提供了一个真实的理由
  • 亚马逊将超越传统数字渠道

现在，其他大型零售商也想参与其中。一家社交媒体公司正投入巨资建立自己的电子商务业务，将自己定位为第三波广告的另一个推动者。

TikTok 最近才在美国推出了 TikTok Shop，但在世界其他地方正取得长足进步。与此同时，亚马逊希望扩大其覆盖范围，并通过扩大 "与Prime一起购买"（Buy With Prime）来实现这一目标。"与Prime一起购买 "是亚马逊去年开始测试的一款快速发货插件，可让其他商家在结账页面上添加亚马逊Prime物流服务。早期的反响已显示出令人印象深刻的效果。

随着第三方数据时代在整个互联网上日落西山，这两者都是在积累重要的第一方数据。

亚马逊（Amazon）和 TikTok 在加强广告业务的同时，也在灵活运用自己的商业力量。曾经与谷歌并列金字塔顶端的 Meta，在 苹果公司对第三方数据追踪的一系列打击后，其广告业务一落千丈。第三方已经让位于第一方，而 Meta 在第一方领域也举步维艰。随着公司将 Instagram 打造成互联网购物商城的目标停滞不前，其 Instagram Shop 标签也随之关闭。

所有的目光都投向了 TikTok。暂时不考虑隐私问题和潜在的国会行动。TikTok 的 10 亿活跃用户是其创作者军团的产品评论和推荐的忠实观众，其中一些人的名气达到了典型的影响力级别，而许多人则没有。滚动应用程序，看看 TikTok 的内容中有多少商业元素。在一段关于一位 TikToker 婚姻如何结束的忏悔式视频的评论中，你可能会发现有人羞怯地询问视频中的人在哪里买的毛衣，尽管这与视频的重点相去甚远。

资金正在流入。The Information 公布了 TikTok 广告和电子商务业务的最新数据，以及中国 TikTok 旗下豆瓣的数据，这两家公司都归 ByteDance 所有。TikTok Shop 在中国和东南亚取得了成功，并计划在美国推广。摘自 The Information：

TikTok 的中国母公司字节跳动正在进军电子商务领域。据两位了解内部数据的人士称，去年中国消费者在字节跳动旗下的豆瓣视频应用（相当于中国的TikTok）上的购物支出为1.41万亿元人民币，约合2080亿美元，比2021年增长了76%。与此同时，东南亚用户在 TikTok 上的消费额（即商品交易总额）增长了四倍多，达到 44 亿美元。

据知情人士透露，字节跳动在 2021 年的收入约为 600 亿美元，其中大部分来自广告。电子商务收入可能只是广告收入的一小部分--2022 年可能为几十亿美元，因为 ByteDance 和其他在线市场一样，从其应用程序上完成的电子商务交易中获得几个百分点的分成。

这些数字表明，通过更好的定位，商业只是更好的广告的引擎。即使 TikTok Shop 只是 600 亿美元广告业务中的一小部分，但它仍然是一个价值数十亿美元的业务。在我们看到竞争对手步履蹒跚，营销人员不知道该把广告费投向何处的时候，这是非常有价值的。TikTok 在美国仍有风险，但如果风险消失，它在社交媒体工具方面仍是遥遥领先的。而且没有理由认为，母公司在中国的 TikTok 在亚洲以外的世界其他地区建立重要业务会有任何问题。据《南华早报》报道，包括特姆和Shein在内的一些中国电子商务平台已经凭借低廉的价格和高效的物流运作席卷了其他国家，而嘀嗒购物也与它们不谋而合。

随着规则的变化，"良好 "和安全的数据是所有社交媒体平台的首要考虑因素。

据AdAge 报道，Pinterest 在 CES 上宣布与 LiveRamp 开展 "数据净室合作"。在这种合作关系中，LiveRamp 充当第三方中介，与外部营销合作伙伴（就 Pinterest 而言，是杂货店 Albertsons）共享经苹果公司批准的 Pinterest 用户安全数据。然后，Albertsons 使用 Pinterest 的 LiveRamp 数据为其营销支出和自己的零售媒体网络提供信息。同样，Meta 也在与数据和洞察公司 IRI 合作，后者将与品牌合作，衡量品牌在 Facebook 和 Instagram 上的广告表现。

曾经强大的广告平台现在要与中间商打交道，只是为了与有价值的广告客户分享信息。将这一点与 TikTok 和亚马逊的情况相比较，你就会明白权力的动态是如何开始转变的。对于亚马逊来说，"用 Prime 购买 "是下一个值得关注的行为。

据《西雅图时报》的一篇文章称，尽管大流行病时代的繁荣放缓，Prime 会员的增长也停滞不前，但亚马逊正在想办法维持其主导地位。解决方案是什么？通过将其最有价值的资产之一--支持 Prime 的运输--出借给外界，获取更多的第一方数据。这对双方来说都是双赢，而且似乎正在奏效。早期采用者报告称，其电子商务网站上的发货窗口更短，结账率更高。亚马逊不必担心蚕食。现在，消费者在其他网站购物时，可以在亚马逊上进行伪购物；亚马逊可以获得交易费用和干净的第一方数据来源。对亚马逊来说，原生交易现在已成为一种全网可能性，为其提供了获取新客户和第一方数据的无尽途径。

这一切会导致什么结果？很明显，谁在第三波广告浪潮中处于更有利的位置。这对双头垄断意味着什么还有待观察，但可以肯定地说，这场狂欢终于崩溃了。2018 年，我们在关于亚马逊广告野心的报告中如是总结：

从商业运营中获得的数据价值被低估，我们相信，围绕消费者转换的数据将成为数字广告的标准。随着整个行业对隐私保护力度的加大，像素和 Cookie 跟踪的效果将大打折扣，这将使情况更加恶化。亚马逊完全有能力打破目前的双头垄断，间接推动更多垂直品牌在亚马逊六点漏斗的多个点与亚马逊开展业务。

早在 2018 年，我就无法预见苹果 iOS 对这一趋势的影响。但到了2021 年 5 月，情况变得更加明朗。

通过升级隐私保护措施，苹果公司将损害在这些终端用户帮助下发展起来的大型广告网络。这可能会削弱 Facebook 目前的模式，使其无法满足新的隐私要求。苹果公司还为无意中调整其隐私保护措施打开了方便之门。这样一来，马克-扎克伯格领导的广告公司（和社交网络）将采用一种新的方式来实现其最关键的目标：收入增长和用户效用。Facebook 将成为一家电子商务公司。

只不过，Facebook（现在的 Meta）把重点放在了 Web3 和元宇宙上，这让公司失去了急需的资源来强化其 Instagram 购物项目。随着亚马逊开始利用其在商业领域的优势，Meta 也放弃了这一领域。现在，从微软 到7-Eleven等所有企业公司都想参与零售媒体的未来。但是，TikTok 和它的线性商务 1.0 战略（建立受众，然后建立商务）可能会成为线性商务战略的卓越 2.0 版本（在建立商务的基础上建立受众）。它正在快速建立自己的第一方数据运营，足以将自己打造成前五大广告商。两年前，我们很少有人能想到 TikTok 会成为一家互联网零售商。

媒体与商业之间的界限可能会永远模糊。这为愿意试水零售媒体的零售商和消费品提供了一个套利的新时代。

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes，美术：Alex Remy

备忘录安装 Shopify

一位Youtuber和他的制作团队在一家豪华探险服务公司的帮助下冒险前往南极洲，忍受了 "寒冷 "到不需要手套的温度，在这种温和的条件下忍受了50个小时，声称这是他做过的体力上最困难的事情，然后在徒步4个小时到达山脊后插上了Shopify的旗帜。"野兽先生宣称："现在这里是Shopify山了。这段赞助视频非常老套，也过于戏剧化，但没人能说它没有达到预期效果。

上一份报告进入野兽先生

吉米-唐纳森（Jimmy "MrBeast" Donaldson）是一位杰出的营销家、创造者、商人和慈善家。对于 Shopify 来说，现在的时机再好不过了。在经历了艰难的一年之后，公司需要一些精明的营销、价值创造、新业务和慈善事业。从这个角度看（也仅仅是从这个角度看），双方的合作是有意义的。在 12 分钟的广告中，唐纳森花了大量时间称赞 Shopify；自12 月 24 日发布以来，该广告已被观看了 6100 万次。从这个角度来看，这个数字是超级碗典型广告收视率的一半以上，而我认为其成本（700 万美元）只是超级碗的一小部分。

为了向广告商表示敬意，团队在攀登过一座岩石山峰后，插上了一面旗帜，并宣布这座处女峰将永远被称为 Shopify 山。

不过，虽然MrBeast店面的年收入已达到八位数（Charm.io估计年收入为4500万美元），但我认为Shopify正在为自己的崛起之年做好准备。2023年将是Shopify的企业级商户年，它试图在竞争中更胜一筹（即Salesforce的Commerce Cloud和Adobe的Magento）。Shopify 曾经以吸引希望成为下一个 "野兽先生"（至少在商品销售方面）的消费者而闻名，现在正成为大型零售商、市场和品牌的首选。这就是 Shopify 要攀登的山峰。

在经历了股价暴跌 74% 的一年后，Shopify 开始重 "质 "轻 "量"--我用这个词来形容其不断增加的 "大型 GMV "零售商目录并不恰当。在过去的一年里，许多以线上为先导的品牌抛弃了它们的定制购物车，选择了更广阔的天地。Supreme转向 Shopify 就是一个例子：

Supreme 将在 2023 年迎来新的开始。据dropsgg刚刚透露，该品牌已将其在线商店从之前的平台更换为 Shopify 的电子商务服务。据悉，此次更换拥有更好的僵尸防范系统，并将于下周开始运行。

另一个例子是ButcherBox，该公司正在逐页推出 Shopify 转换，将定制构建留给外包支持和更先进的工具。在《TechCrunch》和《How I Built This》等刊物上宣布了其 6 亿美元的年收入后，该公司也（悄悄地）证实了这一举措。摘自 2022 年 11 月的Shopify Masters 播客：

时至今日，ButcherBox 仍与第三方农场、加工厂、切割厂、配送厂、运输公司、客户服务公司和技术公司合作。这也是该公司使用 Shopify 开网店的重要原因。

因此，当唐纳森花了这么多精力把他的 50 小时挑战之一变成 Shopify 的广告时，我认为这是该公司在进行更大规模的市场推广之前提高温度的一种尝试。时间会证明市场推广的效果。但作为一个独立的项目，其影响力已经足够大了。甚至还有人试图为尼泊尔布特瓦尔的 Shopify 山命名（至少其中一张图片来自唐纳森的南极之旅）。整个subreddits都在讨论这段视频的吸引力（或鄙视）--我想，对于人缘极佳的唐纳森来说，这样的反应并不多见。

Shopify 早该恢复状态了。在不断增长的企业零售商目录的推动下，该公司的黑色星期五和网络星期一创下了历史新高。这相当于销售额比 2021 年增长了 19%。2022 年的运营亏损额为 6.19 亿美元，公司将投入 10 亿美元建设 Shopify Fulfillment 网络，因此抓住大型零售商及其商品销售总值是未来盈利的关键。这与其自身对 2023 年的预测一致。

野兽先生的购物赞助视频并不是他最好的作品。但估计每天会有 30 万新用户，我相信他的热情粉丝会原谅他的。至于 Shopify，赞助视频提醒我们，它面临着自己独特的挑战。Shopify 既是一家金融服务公司，也是一家电子商务技术提供商。虽然这则原生广告很低俗，但它让人们意识到，Shopify 可能是一家价值被低估的上市公司。

对于 Shopify 来说，一切都与 GMV 有关。Shopify发展成熟收入流的方法不再仅仅是小型商家（MrBeast的受众正是这些商家）和订阅收入。据知情人士透露，2022 年，Shopify 超过 30% 的收入是订阅驱动的。但我相信，这种商业模式正在演变。Shopify Payments 向商家收取交易额的 2.4-2.9%，Shopify Capital 正在发展其贷款产品，销售点系统继续吸引全渠道友好型零售商。

Shopify 需要一批九位数的在线零售商来扭转局面，并提醒投资者它仍将是未来商业的重要贡献者。这可不是一座小山。

更新（1/3/2023）： Shopify 推出了 "Commerce Components by Shopify"（CCS）。该公司通过新闻稿宣布，其目标客户是企业零售商："Shopify进入下一个增长时代：重新定义企业零售"。该技术堆栈允许将 Shopify 集成到现有系统中。上文提到的 ButcherBox 就是一个例子。这家食品零售商网站的大部分内容仍然是定制的，而赠品流程则由第三方托管。Shopify 补充道

Shopify 的 Commerce Components 为企业零售商提供了两全其美的解决方案：使用 Shopify 的基础、高性能组件（如我们的结账系统，其转换率比普通结账系统高 72%，在移动端高 91%）以及灵活的 API，以构建与零售商首选后台服务无缝集成的动态客户体验。

今天刚刚公布的企业零售商名单包括：Mattel、Glossier、JB Hi-Fi、Steve Madden、Spanx 和 Staples：美泰、Glossier、JB Hi-Fi、Steve Madden、Spanx 和 Staples。

作者：Web Smith | 艺术：Alex Remy

Member Brief: A Curation of Forecasts (2023)

There’s always the choice between locking back or peering forward. For 2023, we broke off the rearview and de-iced the windshield because this curation of forecasts by top banking institutions may help manage the numerous macroeconomic influences that lie ahead for retail, advertising, logistics, real estate, and eCommerce.

A problem becomes a crisis when our failure to address it threatens one’s identity; a polycrisis is when multiple problems interact with one another, potentially amplifying the sum of its parts in unpredictable ways. Popularized by Columbia University’s Adam Tooze, I suspect that it will become a word that may rise in popularity in 2023. It was former U.S. Treasury Secretary he recently commented:

This is the most complex, disparate and cross-cutting set of challenges that I can remember in the 40 years that I have been paying attention to such things.

While the study of a polycrisis requires a larger view of global economics and its many forces, we have drilled down on how each may impact the industries relevant to this group of industry leaders. These forces include: the Omicron variant, stagflation risk, nuclear escalation, Eurozone’s debt crisis risk, wage growth exceeding forecasts, U.S. inflation, European inflation, the Fed, the Biden administration, Russian gas boycott, conflict between Russia / Ukraine / United States, China, Italian government’s “intense pressure”, and German government’s “intense pressure.” We’ve learned over the previous few years that that each geography can play a role in the sum of its parts. We are too interdependent to suspect otherwise. The Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal and it affected you, one Chinese province’s COVID lockdown affected you. The Renasas Electronics factory fire led to 23 damaged machines; the impact was felt internationally.

The idea is to understand the potential of future supply shocks and other influences that could disrupt or encourage the industries most relevant to you. As we’ve seen, the “butterfly effect” is real.

According to UMASS-Amherst economist Isabella Weber, there are sectors that are most sensitive to shocks: “Among these, petroleum and coal products were the most sensitive to shocks. Oil and gas extraction, chemical products, farms, food and beverage and housing also featured highly.” As global emergencies overlap, supply shocks have become more common and inflation has lingered on. It’s never been more important to understand how sector-specific data (and the overlapping of other sectors) impacts the sum of all parts. And then, secondarily, impacts you.

In general, retailers may be forced to adapt to changing consumer behavior and economic conditions in order to weather overlapping crises. This may involve implementing new technologies or processes to facilitate online sales, reducing costs, or offering new products or services to meet the needs of consumers. It is important for retailers to stay informed about the evolving situation and to be proactive in addressing any challenges that may arise. As such, we’ve compiled 18 reports from banks and funds with a key excerpt from each document along and a link with access.

Goldman Sachs: Economic Research

Macro Outlook 2023: This Cycle is Different

As shown in Exhibit 3, we estimate a 35% probability that the US economy enters recession over the next 12 months, well below the median of 65% among the forecasters in the latest Wall Street Journal survey and toward the bottom of the range.

J.P. Morgan: Market Insights

A bad year for the economy, a better year for markets

For attractively valued emerging markets to shine in 2023, at least one of these three featured catalysts need to occur. We strongly believe that central banks will be less restrictive in 2023, but certain political outcomes, such as the end of China’s zero-Covid policy, or a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, remain very uncertain.

Morgan Stanley: 2023 Investment Outlook

Applying the Lessons of a Turbulent Year to 2023

Global supply chain realignments, demographic change, debt deleveraging and a structural shift toward a consumption-led economy will be key trends for China in 2023. Manufacturing and trade are becoming less important in driving economic activity partly because of reduced offshoring by Western companies and rising wage costs in China.

Bank of America: Outlook 2023

Back to the (new) future

Michael Hartnett: I don’t think you can immediately say we’re going back to QE or zero rates, I mean that era’s not coming back, but what you can say is a lot of the assets that were penalized greatly in 2022, there’s been a lot of, if you like, creative destruction, more destruction than creation. But hopefully the valuations now a little bit more settled and these growth themes over the medium term can actually start to — you can start to sort of action on them.

Blackrock: 2023 Global Outlook

A new investment playbook

This is the most fraught geopolitical environment since WW II, in our view. The world is splitting up into competing blocs that pursue self-reliance.

HSBC: Global Private Banking

Looking for the silver lining

In recent years, wider security risks to physical assets and their supply lines have reappeared with many goods including food, water and energy. Governments and companies are trying to mitigate the effects by increasing inventories, diversifying sources and supply chains, investing in alternative energy and developing more local capabilities.

Barclays: Corporate and Investment Bank

Living with shock and awe: 2023 Global Outlook

2023 may well be one of the slowest years for global growth in decades. Our analysts expect the world to grow at 1.7% next year, a big slowdown from the 6%+ growth of 2021 and a significant drop from the 3.2% growth expected for 2022. Inflation will likely fall slowly, with consumer prices worldwide rising at a 4.6% average next year.

NatWest: The Year Ahead 2023

Essential insights into the big themes fuelling the outlook

We believe that monetary policy tightening cycles have a little further to run, although there have already been some hints that policymakers are becoming less aggressive. We forecast the Fed Funds rate will climb to a terminal rate of 5.0% in mid-2023, slightly below the 5.1% peak that the market is pricing in.

Citi: Wealth Outlook 2023

Roadmap to recovery: portfolios to anticipate opportunities

Despite recent performance, though, the digital revolution has not gone into reverse. Indeed, these technologies are becoming ever more deeply embedded in how we live and work. In the years ahead, we expect intensifying innovation driven by well-funded research and development. And we believe that businesses will have to either embrace new technologies and processes or face extinction. Put simply, the unstoppable trend of digitization remains in full force.

BNP Paribas: The Investment Outlook for 2023

Investing in an age of transformation

Though these worries have driven some large companies to cut their sourcing from or manufacturing operations in Asia and to shift them elsewhere, we see no largescale decoupling from either the region or from China.

Credit Suisse: Investment Outlook 2023

Supertrends – Diversify your risks

Our Millennials’ values Supertrend is set to benefit from long-term demographic patterns, as the young cohort in Asia in particular will dominate consumption and drive digital trends like social media, streaming, online shopping and fintech. Importantly, this generation has a long-term focus on the world of tomorrow, supporting biodiversity, the circular economy and health and nutrition

UBS: Asset Management

Investing through change: picture the opportunities

We acknowledge that the near-term macro outlook is unusually uncertain. But regardless of what 2023 brings, we believe the inflation, growth, and geopolitical factors that have caused market strife in 2022 are increasing the potential rewards for medium- and long-term investors willing to bear these risks. This is the good news about bad markets.

ING: global economic outlook 2023

May he live in interesting times

Our base case scenario remains that inflation in the developed economies will return to around 2% in 2024. However, this is no reason for relief and could be a very short-lived experience. In the longer term, structural shifts in the global economy are likely to push up costs and hence inflation. Deglobalisation – the restructuring of supply chains but also new trade barriers – presents new costs for corporates. Climate change and the transition to net zero will also initially push up costs for energy and commodities and will lead to more volatile inflation over the coming years.

Apollo: 2023 Economic Markets Outlook

A soft landing is possible

Here’s another situation that will surely need to unwind: A growing disconnect between earnings expectations for S&P 500 companies and overall GDP growth (Exhibit 26). It’s more likely that earnings expectations, which have been stubbornly high, will need to come down than it is for GDP growth forecasts to rise. While we are increasingly confident that the Fed might engineer a soft landing, we are still facing an economic slowdown.

Wells Fargo: Investment Institute

Recession, recovery, and rebound

We enter 2023 with an unfavorable rating on REITs overall; a favorable rating on Self-storage REITs, Retail REITs, and Data Centers REITs; and an unfavorable rating on Residential sub-industry REITs (Apartment, Single Family Home and Manufactured Homes), Office REITs, and Health Care REITs.

BNY Mellon: 2023 Outlook

Looking through to recovery

Inflation appears to have peaked, which will eventually enable central banks to slow the pace of rate hikes and ultimately shift into a holding pattern. However, risks have now shifted to the lagged impact of aggressive monetary policy tightening on economic growth and earnings.

Lazard Asset Management

Competition is fierce but quality companies that reinvest in themselves can stay on top.

In their view, the critical issues of the past 12 months—inflation, monetary policy, and the risk of recession—are likely to remain front and center, though in a different configuration over 2023. Inflation pressures, which dominated the markets in 2022, have, in our view, likely peaked across most developed economies.

And this is the report that influenced our focus on the polycrisis. It is well-written and insightful in ways that others are but Fidelity’s narrative was far less mechanical and more narrative-driven based on all available data.

Fidelity International: Navigating the polycrisis

Sustainability premia set to increase

Prices for air, sea, and land freight are falling and the backlogs created by Covid lockdowns are easing, which may help to soften the blow on consumption. The gradual removal of quarantine restrictions globally has boosted investor confidence, with China now the only major economy where significant requirements are still in place. Further relaxation there would remove a distinct hurdle for both China and the global economy.

Ideally, we will continue to add to this running list of investment prospectuses and macroeconomic outlooks. It’s never been more imperative for companies – new and old – to consider how their top and bottom lines are impacted by variables that are out of their control. The reaction and perspectives are in one’s control, education helps those useful reactions possible.

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作者：Web Smith | 艺术：Alex Remy