备忘录泰勒-谢里丹和他的 DTC 赌局

A former journeyman actor created one of the highest-potential modern brands and online marketplaces of today and he may not have to spend much on traditional advertising or paid marketing at all.

Taylor Sheridan, the creator of Yellowstone, created a multimedia universe like no one in or around Hollywood. With the launch of 6666steak.com (and 6666gritandglory.com), he has a new way to monetize his love for the American west. What better than steaks and beer?

Sheridan is a creative phenom by any measure. The former ‘Sons of Anarchy’ and ‘Veronica Mars’ actor set aside his “failed acting career” to focus on telling tales from the modern American frontier (as he likes to frame it) while sharing those stories through the lens of how the past meets the present. The actor became a real name in Hollywood by hastily writing the screenplay for ‘Sicario’ (2015) in just four months and then having it in production shortly thereafter. He went on to write ‘Hell or High Water’ in 2016. For the former, he earned wide critical and commercial success. For the latter, he received an Academy Award nod for best original screenplay.

Born to a Texas ranching family, Sheridan leveraged his success of his first two films and the third critical success: ‘Wind River.’ The success of the three went on to establish a deal with Paramount Networks to develop a show inspired by the culture and calling he felt closest: ranching. The script that he co-created ended up becoming ‘Yellowstone.’ Widely considered one of the most popular scripted shows, the season five premiere earned 12.1 same day million viewers. No other scripted show has earned over eight million same-day viewers, this season. Sheridan maintains a prolific pace of writing stories on death, revenge, love, grief, and envy. Somewhat Shakespearean in his pace of production and his subject matter, ‘Yellowstone’ has been referred to as “King Lear in a Stetson.”(Collider, 2022).

With Yellowstone’s critical and commercial successes has come other projects; Paramount Network greenlit ‘1883’, ‘1923’, and ‘Yellowstone: 6666.’ Each are spin-offs designed to build on Yellowstone’s success (‘1883’ and ‘1923’ are prequels to the original series). Sheridan has also written ‘Mayor of Kingstown’ and ‘Tulsa King’ as standalone stories – both maintain his go-to themes of death, revenge, love, grief, and envy. Another series based on 19th century African-American lawman Bass Reeves (1883: The Bass Reeves Story) is set to begin shooting principle photography soon.

In five short years, Sheridan has developed an unparalleled film and television media empire. Now, he’s added commerce into the fold. And as you will read, his approach is high stakes.

In a recent conversation between 2PM and a separate, American media CEO: the business leader suggested that his company could launch a new media vertical and then acquire brands that merchandised products that would appeal to the fans of the media company. He wanted to turn viewers into consumers and consumers into customers. His suggestion felt revelatory to him; though it’s been done countless times. But never quite like this. Sheridan’s DTC gamble shares the spirit of this three year old report on linear commerce like few others before it:

The lines of demarcation between media and commerce are fading. For the brands that are most suited to the modern retail economy: media and commerce operations work to optimize for audience and sales conversion. This is the efficient path for sustained growth, retention, and profitability. Brands will develop publishing as a core competency, and publishers will develop retail operations as a core competency.

In that same report, I explained how the 130 year old Michelin star system may be one of the best examples of linear commerce. The principle behind the annual, fine dining publication was that Michelin would sell more tires by giving fine dining aficionados a reason to travel to more restaurants. As the concept went: burnt rubber and memorable dining moments meant more loyalty to (and use of) the Michelin brand of tires.

Over 120 years later and we’re still buying Michelin tires (or tyres, depending on where you’re from). It’s a similar age old problem that Sheridan is seeking to address with 6666steak.com.

Sheridan’s crown jewel, ‘Yellowstone’ is in its fifth and final season. The narrative is at a crossroads with John Dutton III on the verge of losing the legacy that his five-generation ranching family built before him. The finale of the ‘1883’ prequel foreshadowed this issue. An American Indian tribal leader named Spotted Eagle agreed to allow the first-generation of the Duttons to settle on its Montana lands. Spotted Eagle noted that his people would rise up and take it back in seven generations to which the Dutton family patriarch and pioneer responded, “You can have it.”

This season of the show features many of the fifth, sixth, and seventh generations of the Dutton family. In addition to the looming 119 year old omen of loss: there is politics, and social pressures, and the usual drama found on American television. Season five introduced a new focus on the economics of cattle supply and demand. In one scene, John and his daughter, Beth, discuss the astronomical costs of moving his herd of cattle to land away from a festering brucellosis infection that seems to be spreading throughout the herd. She asks him to sell the cows and he replied that a cow is worth $1.50 per pound. His daughter scoffed:

A good steak, she points out, can go for $30. Hamburger is, at worst, $5 a pound. Why is the ranch getting garbage money for its cattle when there’s money to be made in beef?

John replied that he “sells cattle, not beef.” And goes on to explain that his model has worked for over 100 years. In the final season of television’s most popular show, one that will end with a major change, the business of cattle is the focus. Sheridan is intentional about exploring whether or not the Dutton operation can modernize enough to survive in a different (um…DTC) form. According to Beth, maximizing profitability in the cattle ranching industry means going vertical and selling the product of cattle and not just the animals themselves. The lucrative products: loin, rib, brisket, and flank cuts are far more valuable to consumers than the whole of the cattle themselves.

Source: MTV Studios

For fans of Sheridan’s work, this scene was meta at best and cringe at worst. It was native advertising but it broke the fourth wall in a way that was abrupt and desperate. But the advertising worked and here I am writing about an online retail operation that I have watched over recent months. The episode made it clear that Four Sixes Reserve Steak wasn’t an offshoot of the 6666 Ranch business, it was the future of the ranch (and quickly earning Sheridan a return on investment). Beth was intentional in handing over the Macbook Pro screen with the example of going direct on it. It was the direct-to-consumer steak retailer of the ranch that Sheridan finalized the purchase of in early 2022:

The legendary Four Sixes Ranch (often written as the 6666 Ranch) was recently sold for just under $200 million to a group that’s believed to be led by Yellowstone creator Taylor Sheridan. Initial listings show that the owners sought more than $340 million for the 143,000-acre property.

With the acquisition of 6666 Ranch, Sheridan acquired three assets at once: the credibility that comes along with owning a 150 year old Texas ranch, a set for filming shows and movies that require expansive horizons and prairie lands, and a larger canvas upon which to use his vast, creative influence. The closing episodes of the show’s final season will be focused on moving Yellowstone from an aging model to a modern one. While in real life, Sheridan and his team of investors are doing the same for the legendary and historic ranch that he now owns. Yellowstone’s 60 second native advertisement was Sheridan’s first attempt at getting the word out at scale.

The Four Sixes Ranch isn’t Sheridan’s first rodeo (he’s an accomplished horse breeder) but the bet he’s making with this integration between art and retail is one with countless implications. Sheridan is going all in on the cattle raising and marketing business at a time when the industry is rife with turmoil between suppliers, packers, and their consumers.

The Academy Award-nominated writer will be joining NCBA as the keynote speaker for the 2023 Cattle Industry Convention and Trade Show’s opening session. The NCBA is “the voice of U.S. Cattlemen and Women.” Sheridan will be the rare celebrity that walks the convention’s halls but he will be a welcomed presence and his positioning with Four Sixes Reserve means he’s also an advocate for cattlemen of large and small ranches. No one in modern media has shed more light on the culture of ranchers and the “modern west” as Sheridan has. He’s glamorized the industry while casting a bright light on its struggles and sorrows. Sheridan has spent seven years building the credibility required to stand alongside legitimate cattlemen and the organizations (like the NCBA) that advocate for them:

We sit at the intersection of all of these different takes on what to do with the spread that we’ve seen over the last couple years — the disparity between packer margins and producer margins on cattle.

Now, he will try to galvanize them around his real world plans. There is a political risk for Sheridan. At the core of the Four Ranches DTC operation is an effort to address one of the many issues tolerated by producers who drive the American-sourced beef industry. In July 2022, wholesale food distributor Sysco filed a lawsuit against the four companies responsible for processing over 80% of the domestic cattle market according to Food Business News:

Beginning as early as 2015, the meat processors “exploited their market power in this highly concentrated market by conspiring to limit the supply, and fix the prices, of beef sold to Plaintiff in the US wholesale market,” the lawsuit alleged.

JBS, Cargill, National Beef, and Tyson deny any allegations of price fixing. Sheridan’s DTC bet is larger than the traditional narrative of direct-to-consumer success or failure – in some ways, his direct-to-consumer efforts puts him in competition with the four processors. At the NCBA, Sheridan will work to rally the dozens of other cattle-producing and / or processing operations, many of whom are pursuing DTC marketing as opportunities for themselves (here is a growing list).

Sheridan is betting that his media empire and shameless (fourth-wall breaking) native advertising can help suppliers by providing them a new marketing vein to sell more of what they directly supply without the big four who own 80+% of the processing industry. The Four Sixes website all but says this is the case: “We are proud to offer the Four Sixes Ranch Brand beef, which is sourced from a network of ranches, including our own, that meet grading, marbling and tenderness qualifications.”

Sheridan’s final season of ‘Yellowstone’ will explore the business model of DTC meat. It’s likely that the ensuing spinoff ‘Yellowstone: 6666 Ranch’ will double down on the changing economics of the industry. For the first time, Sheridan will give his fans the ability to play along in the story. When Beth picked up the phone to call the merchandiser at 6666 Ranch, the gentleman mentioned “we’ve sold 8 million pounds of beef this year.” While that was likely fictional, it’s a reasonable first-year mark given Sheridan’s reach and growing popularity. At $5 – $30 per pound and 8 million units moved, that goal would make Four Sixes Reserve a serious DTC business. One of the fastest growing, ever. The kind that could save a seventh generation ranch, a fictional one or otherwise.

作者:Web Smith | 艺术:Alex Remy  

Additional reading (very fascinating): Assessing Economic Impact That Would Follow Loss of US Beef Exports and Imports

Member Brief: Free Speech and Elon Musk

Chaos has descended upon Twitter at the hands of its unpredictable leader, Elon Musk. As the events unfold in real time – as of Friday afternoon, the tweets are still coming – it’s a missed opportunity as much as anything else.

本会员简报专为以下人士设计 执行委员为了方便加入,您可以点击下面的链接,获取数百份报告、我们的 DTC 权力清单和其他工具,帮助您做出高水平的决策。

在此加入

备忘录互联网经济

Stripe 说,"互联网经济无处不在"。数据证明了这一点。但随着民主化而来的是影响新客户生活的成熟技术,无论好坏。环顾四周:经过多年的建设,以及一次推动零售技术发展步伐的大流行,电子商务已经超越了行业媒体通常期望的主要中心,展翅高飞。客户正在城市、郊区和农村地区进行交易,而这些地区通常并不在大都市地区排行榜上。

在有关这一现象的报告中,Stripe 调查了年交易额超过 1 亿美元的公司所在地。从 2017 年到 2021 年,这些公司的分布已经超出了传统的科技和大都市地区。来自Stripe 的分析

在过去五年中,华盛顿州、西弗吉尼亚州和俄亥俄州的互联网商务增长速度超过了美国其他任何州。较小的城市在这一进程中处于领先地位。在此期间,哥伦布(俄亥俄州)的 Stripe 支付量增长了 40 倍,里士满(弗吉尼亚州)增长了 20 倍,亚特兰大、夏洛特、丹佛、底特律和得梅因(爱荷华州)增长了 5 倍多。

分析指出,虽然整体增长在最初的大流行增长季节后有所放缓,但互联网经济的民主化将是经济持续复苏的关键,因为增长为新市场的新收入带来了新机遇(并促成了新的本地化经济飞轮)。Stripe 指出,就像 Shopify 的领导层经常做的那样,"创业障碍 "已经稳步下降,因此释放出来的、沉睡的人才和资本也在增加。

尽管电子商务的渗透率已降至大流行前的趋势,但 Stripe 的数据表明,在美国更多地区有更多人在网上购物。地区电子商务渗透率应被视为与人口普查驱动的全国电子商务渗透率同等重要。

这一地区性增长的促成因素之一是 "先买后付 "公司的普及。随着 Klarna、Affirm、Afterpay 等公司及其竞争对手在更多的零售结账页面上出现,借贷技术的使用已经平民化。根据《华盛顿邮报》最近的一篇专栏文章,北美约有 4% 的网购使用 BNPL 支付,而且随着假日购物季与高通胀的冲突,使用率还在上升。随着电子商务和 BNPL 技术在大城市以外和农村地区的不断发展,互联网新分期付款系统的丑陋一面也将开始显现。

华盛顿邮报》在其评论文章中认为,BNPLs 需要受到监管,尤其是在使用率和违约率不断上升的情况下。BNPLs 在几秒钟内就能批准消费者的申请,并设定 4-24 期的无息分期付款。逾期付款需要支付手续费,如果一直不付款,客户今后可能无法使用 BNPL 结账。但《华盛顿邮报》指出,评估时间相对较短。数据显示,拥有 10 笔以上贷款的人数比例正在上升,2021 年第四季度已超过 15%。使用 BNPL 的人更有可能处于脆弱的财务状况中,而对 BNPL 贷款的依赖只会加剧这种状况。

对 1000 多万美国人进行的新的学术研究揭示了一个相关的、令人担忧的趋势:使用这些产品的人更有可能经历银行透支费用和信用卡利息的 "快速增长"。这是因为 "先买后付 "公司通常会让购物者在注册时使用自动付款,即把借记卡或信用卡链接到账户上。

有人对 BNPL 的行为表示担忧,如果考虑到弱势债务人,这些行为也可能被视为掠夺性的。这些公司--其中许多公司都直言不讳地表示,它们的野心不仅仅是提供 BNPL 服务--正在收集结账时的用户数据,并利用这些数据向他们推广和推销更多的购物服务,因此有可能加剧债务循环。随着互联网经济的普及,BNPL 是了解更多领域更多客户的有用钥匙。

2021 年,互联网经济的普及使美国创造的就业岗位总体增加了 12%,其中农村地区增加了 27%。这其中包括俄亥俄州、阿拉斯加州和北达科他州等非传统科技中心,这些地区在互联网经济的推动下,就业岗位的增幅最大。

监管可能会出台。消费者金融保护局(CFPB)和 Capterra 都认为,低收入消费者是 "BNPL 服务的核心人群"。

与其他人口统计数据相比,黑人或非裔美国人(46%)和西班牙裔/拉丁裔社区(56%)更有可能在过去一年中至少使用过一次这种贷款方式。近一半(45%)的千禧一代、33% 的 Z 世代和 33% 的 X 世代至少使用 BNPL 资助过一次购物。

因此,到 2022 年,电子商务的渗透率也许不会像 Shopify、Meta 和其他公司认为的那样达到 20%。但是,新地域和新消费者的普及率还是值得一提的。我们还需要量化普及对未来的影响。Stripe 坚持以数据为导向的经营方式,即便如此,亚特兰大、夏洛特、里士满和俄亥俄州哥伦布等城市的在线零售爆炸式增长还是让他们大吃一惊。谁知道下一个惊喜会是什么呢?

作者:Web Smith | 编辑:Hilary Milnes,美术:Alex Remy 和 Christina Williams