备忘录QR 案例

If you ever want to give up, consider the QR code’s journey from where it was just a few years ago. While immensely popular in Japan and other Asian countries, prior to the pandemic it was nearly forgotten in the United States.

The QR code dates back to 1994, when it was first used by a Toyota subsidiary to track auto parts during assembly. More information-rich than a barcode, QR codes were designed to unlock information like product files or manufacturing records. It wasn’t until 2002 that the “quick response” code took on a new life as a way to drive viewers to properties like websites and events. And by 2007, QR’s promise was what we know it today: for brands and advertisers to tack on additional storytelling, details and access when trying to get customers’ attention. Still, it never ever quite caught on in a meaningful way, at least not in the US.

In fact, the technology was the butt of many jokes. When Tim Armstrong reintroduced efforts to market brands through QR codes in 2018, the idea was widely panned. The former AOL and Verizon Media CEO attempted to rebrand the then-24 year old technology as “Flowcode.” In November of 2019, his latest project, DTX Company, contacted 120 DTC brands in an attempt to build a new shopping holiday called “DTC Friday.” In 2019’s In Defense of Tim Armstrong, I explained:

Tim Armstrong is not wrong; he’s early. DTX’s effort to launch DTC Friday 2019 wasn’t designed to prioritize the advertising brands. The goal was to advertise Flowcode, a reportedly advanced rebrand of the QR code concept that was dismissed in the United States, several years ago.

In that report, I characterized the difference between the US and Asia’s offline attribution models. When this was written in 2019, billboards, mailers, catalogues, and brochures were the primary forms of offline marketing in the US. Meanwhile, China used QR codes to fuel sales and attribution at scale. My assessment of Armstrong’s bet, at the time, was as follows:

Given the flow of retail innovations from China to the United States, it’s clear to see that when Armstrong discusses payments “getting easier”, he anticipates an adoption of mobile wallets and streamlined payments systems. Why? The prevalence of these systems correlated with a mass adoption of QR code usage in China.

Mobile wallet adoption and streamlined payments systems have vastly improved since Tim Armstrong’s attempt to resurrect the QR code through DTX. He wasn’t wrong; he was early. And something else happened: the pandemic. In 2020, Square built systems around QR use for shops and small businesses. The Verge published this in 2020:

When using the feature, a restaurant can print a QR code out and leave it on a table. A customer would then scan the QR code, browse a menu, place their order, and pay from their phone. The restaurant would know what table placed the order, and then bring their food out when it’s ready. Square says the system is flexible, so a coffee shop, for example, could have a single QR code in its window that people would scan and then wait for their drink.

And the rest was history.

Web Smith on Twitter: “QR’s j-curve of adoption: 1994: Toyota invents QR 2007: Wide use in APAC2011: 14M Americans used QR2013: QR codes derided2019: DTX tries to rebrand it2020: Square’s QR for shops 2021: Pandemic popularizes it2022: 60 sec Super Bowl ad / Twitter”

QR’s j-curve of adoption: 1994: Toyota invents QR 2007: Wide use in APAC2011: 14M Americans used QR2013: QR codes derided2019: DTX tries to rebrand it2020: Square’s QR for shops 2021: Pandemic popularizes it2022: 60 sec Super Bowl ad

The QR suddenly popped up everywhere: restaurant menus, packaging, device installs, the walls of museums. There, they’ve taken the place of guides who would have ushered guests before pandemic restrictions hindered their roles. There is a newfound appreciation for the QR. Seemingly overnight, it became a necessary technology in America as payments technology proliferated and proximity payments nearly doubled over the span of 2019 to 2021.

So when the QR code popped up on the screen for 60 seconds during the Super Bowl, the room’s reaction wasn’t one of distaste. In a room of 30 adults ranging from 35 to 55, the consensus was: “OK, whoever this is, this seems smart.” As many Super Bowl lists have now-noted, it was a clever advertisement for Coinbase. The project was a joint effort between the cryptocurrency exchange and its agency of record.

Accenture Interactive, the agency responsible for the ad, had undergone a digital transformation and acquisition spree under CEO Brian Whipple, who left last summer and was replaced by David Droga. Accenture Interactive’s reinvention turned the consulting firm into a creative agency and technology partner – a combination perfectly suited for the Web3 era. I would have loved to have been in the room for the decision to acquire a the television spot for $15 million and spend nearly nothing designing the actual creative for it. It’s a level of efficiency that has become a feature in the age of proximity payments, blockchain implementation, and subscription-commerce. The less thought, the better. AdWeek explained:

Had the ad been just 15 seconds, casual viewers might have shrugged off the odd spot and gone back to their snacks. But running a leisurely 60 seconds, the spot and its hypnotic music became increasingly curiosity inducing until finally many of us had to pull out our phones and scan it. In a night defined by crypto players working hard to get your attention, Coinbase leaped past simple brand awareness and directly engaged viewers by the millions. Bonus: It also—finally—proved all those 2007-era QR evangelists right.

A 30-year-old technology experienced a J-curve in popularity, from Toyota’s invention in 1994 to widespread use in most Asian-Pacific countries in 2007. In 2011, just 11 years ago, 14 million Americans scanned a QR code. According to Bitcoin Magazine, Coinbase received 20 million hits to its website in one minute.

That’s nearly double the entire audience for QR, just a decade later in just 0.00019% of the time. By 12 p.m. EST the day after the Super Bowl, the stock price began reflecting the market’s positive reaction to the chatter. Sportico’s Jacob Feldman noted a stock price that added 1-2% to the company’s market cap. A $14 million spend and a $1 billion+ outcome.

If just 2% of viewers decided to make an account in that first minute of viewership, In theory, Coinbase won 400,000 new wallets at a cost of $35 per customer. We’re going to be seeing a lot more of QR codes in the media. Tim Armstrong wasn’t wrong, he was just early. As Web3 rises in popularity and the metaverse conversations persist, the core of many of these discussions is the basic understanding of cryptocurrencies and their potential. Before MetaMask, OpenSea, and other marketplaces — Coinbase may be the most foundational platform for mass adoption. Accenture Interactive and Coinbase were right on time with a simple message that overshadowed much of the night’s game, the internet’s betting commentary, and the musical fanfare of America’s top sporting day. A QR code did all of that.

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes，美术：Christina Williams 和 Alex Remy

备忘录苹果、Stripe 和（眨眼）黑帮关系

With a new Apple partnership, Stripe just secured more power in Silicon Valley. The running joke is that any advancement by Stripe is indicative of its “mob boss” mentality, a reference to the recently viral thread by the founder of Bolt. In actuality, Stripe is showing just how much of a positive-sum mentality it’s using by building more dynamism into American retail and entrepreneurship.

Much has happened since this pre-pandemic report on “falling American dynamism,” a term that I prescribe to suggest that entrepreneurship was falling in popularity. In that report, I explained:

The more that conglomerates exist, the more we’ll see dynamism collapse. As a number of those companies begin to succumb to antitrust scrutiny, dynamism will be called upon to close the gap between the age of conglomeration and the need for new, high-growth businesses.

The idea behind that essay was that companies like Google, Facebook, and Apple were so powerful that it was beginning to make tech employment more popular than self-starting entrepreneurship. Of course, the flip side of this argument is that most businesses cannot survive without using Google, Facebook, or Apple. In the essay, I assigned special value to Jack Dorsey’s two companies, Twitter and Square (now Block), and their positive value to dynamism (word of mouth marketing and ease of transaction). Apple builds on that positive impact with its latest project and I believe that the entire fintech ecosystem will benefit along with the advancement of the end user.

In most media reports, the Apple Pay x Stripe partnership is positioned as competitive with Dorsey’s company. I’d argue that Stripe has no interest in competing with Block, a nod to the positive-sum mentality of Stripe’s founders. In fact, I can see a future where they partner with Dorsey’s hardware/ financial services. But not everyone thinks this way about Stripe.

Days after former Bolt CEO Ryan Breslow compared the company to the mob boss of the tech world (and was retweeted 1,600 times), it was announced that Stripe would be the launch partner for Apple’s upcoming Tap to Pay technology. Tap to Pay turns Apple devices into payment hardware, making credit card swipe attachments essentially unnecessary. (That’s a separate lesson for hardware companies that have built their businesses on being middlemen for Apple and payment services.) This product partnership is the result of a 2020 Apple acquisition of Mobeeweave, an NFC innovation that enabled iPhones and other devices to operate as pay terminals without additional hardware. Apple Pay’s partnership with Stripe is expected to operate with Mobeeweave’s technology.

Whether or not Apple will approach this opportunity to monopolize payments and take on competitors like Block and Venmo is the next debate. Pointed out by NextWeb, Block is more than just a payments portal – it helps small businesses manage inventory and analytics. Shopify’s stake in Stripe boosted its positioning as the payments manager of choice for entrepreneurs and small-and-medium sized businesses. Apple’s Tap to Pay appears to only facilitate payments, but if it were to move beyond the point of sale to the backend management of inventory and data, that would give it a bigger role in the space where Block and Shopify currently operate. Or, Apple could choose to open up Tap to Pay to more partners, widening its reach in assisting payments despite the platform the seller uses. This is the most likely play, in my opinion.

It’s important to consider Apple’s ambitions in fintech. With Apple Pay standing tall as the most adopted technology, Tap to Pay seems like the extension of a strategy that’s just getting started. From Next Web:

Over the last few years, Apple has been focused on expanding its services business — especially financial offerings. In 2019, it launched the Apple Card, and plans to expand it to more countries. Last July, a Bloomberg report noted that the company is exploring a “buy now, pay later” product with Goldman Sachs. If Apple starts accepting payment on a seller’s behalf, it can explore more financial products, ranging from loans to management services. Really, this news shows how serious Apple is about getting its services to reach a $1.5 trillion valuation alone. And, at this stage, who would bet against it?

Two years later and dynamism is on the rise. The “great resignation” has led to 47.4 million American voluntarily leaving their jobs in 2021, according to CNN data. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson was recently quoted:

We’re seeing a lot of churn in the jobs market. But one thing we are seeing is that hires are higher. They’re not leaving the jobs market, they’re leaving for other jobs in the same industry.

But to the earlier point of dynamism, it’s not all corporate upward mobility, the pandemic has influenced a boom in dynamism. An August 2021 report in the New York Times began:

After waning for decades, applications to start businesses surged last year. If the rebound proves durable, it could provide a more resilient economy.

So it is through this lens that I see the positive sum game that the Collison brothers are playing with Apple. Will it have an impact on Block’s hardware business? Yes. But that does not mean that Apple won’t partner with Block in the future. Block sells full point of sale systems for readers; this new Apple / Stripe partnership will only impact Block’s dongle business.

Viewed this way, Apple’s Tap to Pay could be helpful to Block as it removes the need for the dongle, giving users more and easier ways to pay, without making the dongle obsolete. Protocol makes the argument that Block is then freed up to focus on other services that are more profitable than a hardware business, including banking, payroll and other financial services. By making it easier for anyone to accept payments via iPhone, smaller business owners and entrepreneurs who aren’t looking for full POS machines can start selling, widening Block’s pool of potential customers in the long run. Then, more can win as the market for proximity payments expects to double over the next four years:

A positive-sum mentality and dynamism go hand in hand. Lost in the news cycle on the Apple Pay x Stripe partnership is that the same technology will be powering Shopify’s similar solution in the coming months. Stripe will be offering the Tap to Pay solution for iPhone users through a new Shopify app, as well.

Dynamism is defined as a theory or philosophy that explains something in terms of great energy or force. In the context of entrepreneurship, it goes hand and hand with payments technology, specifically the way that we use our phones. It is easier to pit one company against the other than it is to understand the bigger picture here. The United States is currently in eighth place behind China, South Korea, Vietnam, Norway, the United Kingdom, India, and Spain with respect to mobile payment adoption. China’s penetration was 39.5% to America’s 17.7% (as of August 2021). With an emphasis on making peer to peer transactions easier, businesses of all kinds can grow in sophistication and in reach.

And in doing so, Apple will achieve its goal for Apple Pay. It wants the payment technology to no longer be bound by the hardware that launched it. As Stripe has become the processing layer beneath much of commerce, Apple likely has aspirations to do the same for the transactions layer. And it won’t care if the trade is happening on iOS, Android or through Block, Shopify, or even Bolt. Dynamism is about agility and reach and it seems to be on its way back.

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes，美术：Alex Remy 和 Christina Williams 

Disclaimer: 2PM is an investor in Fast, a competitor to Bolt. To Ryan’s Breslow’s point, Stripe is an investor in Fast. But Bolt has been noted as better positioned with more money raised, more enterprise clients, and a higher GMV. Stripe has been noted as being competitive with Fast in a few of its recent initiatives. Ok, I am tired. 

备忘录：Peloton，照做就是了。

谁知道呢？耐克很可能会驳回有关其可能收购 Peloton 的传言，如果他们还没有这样做的话。CNBC 早些时候指出，约翰-福里（John Foley）对该公司作为独立公司的未来 "充满信心"。Peloton 并不是那种会将权力让给任何外部公司的人，但如果他们真的这么做了，效果会非常好。假设交易不会发生，这就是它应该发生的原因。彭博社的这篇评论文章一针见血：

耐克可以说是一个奢侈品牌，如果你看一下它的高端价格范围，夹克和运动鞋都在 500 美元以上。这与 Peloton 的定位不谋而合，因为它的自行车起价高达 1495 美元。

Peloton 最需要的是充满活力和参与感的新用户，他们可以放心地为 Peloton 硬件支付全额费用，同时继续使用移动应用程序和虚拟社区。耐克可以提供这样的服务，尤其是在美国消费者重返健身房的今天：

耐克公司多年来一直在投资其虚拟社区，大力发展一整套为不同客户和不同需求服务的应用程序。其主要的耐克应用程序用于直接购物，耐克跑步俱乐部和耐克训练俱乐部用于追踪锻炼情况，而 SNKRS 应用程序则是运动鞋爱好者密切关注即将发布的产品的首选。成为 Nike+ 会员虽然是免费的，但可以通过产品更新和独家产品与零售商建立更密切的关系。不难看出，Peloton 将如何融入耐克的健身应用，并推动耐克付费会员制的发展。两家公司的用户群很可能重叠，但两者之间存在着许多交叉销售的机会。Peloton 的高收入用户可以提升耐克作为奢侈品的定位，吸引那些想购买耐克产品的用户，而耐克的巨大影响力将为 Peloton 带来高效的客户获取。同时，我们也不难理解 Peloton 为何需要耐克的帮助。

Peloton 品牌已今非昔比。在《Peloton 的扩散》一文中，我们写道："为了获得尽可能多的客户，Peloton 扩散了其狂热的基础，削弱了其核心人群之间的联系"。通过降低价格和增加融资机会来实现大众化目标的结果，意味着该品牌在早期采用者心目中的形象大打折扣，从而将家用自行车变成了一个追随者众多的品牌。这反映在其服装业务的减少上。据 CNBC 最近报道，该公司正在削减2022 年的服装销售预期。不过，就目前而言，Peloton 的产品仍然优于市场上的任何竞争对手。埃施朗公司最近说服美国专利商标局，Peloton 的流媒体和点播课程专利实际上并不具有专利性。根据彭博社的最新报道，未来可能还会有更多的专利。

Peloton 战略的风险在于，如果法院认为其 "革命性技术 "并不那么具有革命性，则可能适得其反。就像刚刚发生在 Echelon 身上的那样。如果这种情况在更大范围内发生，Peloton 将面临数百万美元的损失，而且其核心业务也得不到法律保护。

因此，如果 Peloton 正在失去品牌资产，失去使其有别于竞争对手的技术专利权，并在与健身房重新兴起的兴趣的斗争中败下阵来，那么谁能比耐克更能重振人们对该产品的兴趣呢？

耐克一直在向直接面向消费者的品牌转型。除应用程序外，耐克还花时间投资于创新之家等商店概念，缩减表现不佳的批发合作关系，并对产品进行分级，为直接客户创造更全面、更丰富的体验。最近，耐克在 Web3 上采取的举措凸显了 DTC 战略的重要性。耐克一直忙于申请元宇宙商标，在 Roblox 上建立一个虚拟的 Nikeland 世界，它还收购了 RTFKT，标志着对元宇宙的更深入投资。

因此，耐克不再仅仅是一家服装公司。它是直接面向消费者的领导者和Web3 的先驱。与 Peloton 达成交易后，耐克将获得数十万块屏幕，用于营销自己的产品：实体产品、数字产品以及介于两者之间的所有产品。但更重要的是，这将使耐克在与最主要的挑战者的竞争中处于有利地位：Lululemon/Mirror 和 Tonal 的不断崛起。

耐克和亚马逊对 Peloton 的追逐很可能无疾而终。收购兴趣来得快，去得也快。但如果有一个合作伙伴适合从 Peloton 现有的基础设施中获益，那一定是耐克。在最近一次对另一家零售商战略的深入研究中，我们解释说，耐克实际上是在为其涉足家庭数字健身领域奠定基础：

耐克正在为进一步扩张奠定基础。目前，该品牌正与 Lululemon 就镜面技术的专利问题发生争执，这表明它在为更大的耐克世界争夺所有权。

今年 12 月，耐克起诉 Lululemon 侵犯其 Mirror 技术专利权，这意味着耐克正计划投资硬件和家用健身技术。诉讼指控 Lululemon 侵犯了包括消耗水平技术、用户竞赛和成绩记录在内的多项专利。无论耐克在家用健身技术领域的未来是否取决于 Peloton，其挑战 Lululemon 的积极举措和 Mirror 自身的战略都表明，耐克至少受到了该领域崛起蚕食其地盘的威胁。

约翰-福里是一个独立思考的人，一个以控制和领地领导为乐的首席执行官。他不太可能将任何权力让渡给 Fitness 的顶级公司。但如果他真的这么做了，那将是当今商业领域最互惠互利的关系。在耐克的帮助下，Peloton 将获得新的业务渠道，并在豪华健身领域重新站稳脚跟。在 Peloton，耐克获得了一个看似多管齐下的利益，即发展自有实体空间、自有数字渠道，以及一个新兴的 Web3 空间，在这个空间里，国内社区行为和数字商务行为将以新的方式进行合作。即使在这里，Peloton 也能帮助促进进一步的创新。

Peloton 的市值已经达到了 100 亿美元，这对这个市值 2300 亿美元的品牌来说是个有意义的赌注。如果双方看到了许多相同的目标，耐克就会像在健身房、元宇宙和体育赛场一样出现在家庭中。而 Peloton 在过去的三个月里将广告投放增加了 46%，将拥有金钱买不到的可寻址市场。

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes，美术：Christina Williams 和 Art Remy