备忘录Shopify、履约和颠覆

这与其说是一个关于 Shopify 的故事，不如说是一个关于供应链中断和公司风险承受能力评估的故事。现在，物流和履约是需要公司全神贯注、严加管教的领域之一。亚马逊可以做到，而 Shopify 却做不到。

Shopify 的履约网络及其在履约游戏中与亚马逊竞争的雄心遭遇挫折。Shopify 正在将其仓库和履约合作伙伴网络缩减一半左右。上周，在一位现有的合作伙伴向 2PM 通报了即将发生的变化之后，我们得知了这一缩减战略的计划。他指出"任何使用定制包装、做批发或配套的商家都不会得到新产品的服务"。Insider 最近的一篇报道正式宣布了这一消息。

此举表明，Shopify 认为自己在更大的零售业格局中处于有利地位。长期以来，Shopify 的目标一直是建立一支 "反叛军"，与亚马逊的大型机器相抗衡。作为一场零售运动，Shopify 在过去一年中取得了不俗的成绩。品牌利用它来启动和建立自己的业务，该公司已成为直接面向消费者的零售业的代名词。它将自己定位为 "反亚马逊"（anti-Amazon），这一市场定位对它很有帮助。但在某些领域，亚马逊的护城河提供了不可否认的优势。

在最好的时候，零售物流也是一项艰巨的任务。过去的一年是最糟糕的一年。供应链中断比 2020 年增加了 88%，其中 47% 的中断影响到 Shopify 的主要市场美国。我们提供了以下数据：

 

12 月 27 日，我们写道

虽然 Shopify 现在占据优势，但亚马逊的履约系统网络正迅速成为必不可少的。Shopify 的劲敌，最终可能会成为它最需要的合作伙伴。

即使拥有世界一流的软件，Shopify 也无法承受航运业日益增长的复杂性。为什么？因为这是一个需要人力和车辆的行业。软件可以优化人力，但不能取代人力。有一些规则和外部力量决定着运输、交付和退货的状态，即使是最好的软件也无法覆盖这些规则和力量。当混乱成为支配者时，就需要装备精良的机器。亚马逊就是这样的机器。它建立了一个业务和护城河，旨在即使在最糟糕的时期也能保持最佳性能。同样来自十二月：

通过多年的投资，亚马逊已经建立了自己的货运机队，并正在租赁飞机，同时在辛辛那提开设了一个航空枢纽，以避免在假日购物季的这个阶段开始困扰其他零售商的缺货问题。亚马逊以各种方式拓展业务，但其优势不再仅仅是产品和数字驱动。

根据 Insider 的报道和内部人士的报告，Shopify Fulfillment Network 已濒临破产。该公司正在关注第三方收购。它可能会重新调整，缩小仓储面积，并更加关注电子商务最大的痛点之一：退货。现在，对于 Shopify 来说，退货可能不再是一个庞大的履行网络的一部分，而是一个更精简、软件驱动型运营的卖点。

退货是零售业的现代难题之一，使用功能更强的软件可以大大改善这一问题。在 退货后市场我们认为，只要有足够的退货量，退货市场就能蓬勃发展。但首先，Shopify 或像 Loop 这样的 Shopify 合作伙伴需要成为退货管理的实际解决方案。以下是该报告的相关片段：

在分析了数十家仓储企业并采访了无数业主之后，有一点变得很清楚：在这个并不光彩的行业中，隐藏着一个优雅的市场机会。最近，在与一位顶级独立第三方物流公司首席执行官的讨论中，他说道

"除了我们最大的两个客户使用 Loop 外，其余的客户都使用我们的 WMS/OMS 系统来促进他们的退货。我们去年的销售额为 1.5 亿美元，只是杯水车薪。但现在，我们为之发货的客户都没有使用 Shopify 的内部系统来简化流程。

Shopify 在履约方面的挫折提醒我们，为什么亚马逊是罕见的全栈零售商：营销、搜索、购买、发货、退货。这一战略转变为 Shopify 提供了一个机会，使其能够更好地把握下一步行动，而不是作为亚马逊的替代者，而是其潜在的合作伙伴。在 12 月份彭博社关于 Tobi Lutke 领导风格的专题报道中，亚马逊的一位前高管引用了这句话："Shopify让我们看起来像个傻瓜"。这种反应是短视的。零售商一打一打地购买集装箱，他们正在新建 50 万平方英尺的履约设施，或者直接租用整艘集装箱船。物流现在是一个要么全有要么全无的命题，很少有人能比亚马逊更能体现这一新的现实，Shopify 在这一点上应该与亚马逊合作。最后，我们对彭博社的这篇报道提出了不同的看法：

虽然 Shopify 现在占据优势，但亚马逊的履约系统网络正迅速成为必不可少的。Shopify 的劲敌，最终可能会成为它最需要的合作伙伴。

每个人的生活中都需要一个敌人。

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes | 艺术：Christina Williams 

备忘录重新审视中国战略

This is a continuation of the original essay: The China Strategy (2018)

At 8 am on May 10, 2003, Taobao went online on the fourth day of the SARS quarantine. The homepage read: “Think of those who start a business in trying times.” Nineteen years later, and China’s online retail economy is the envy of the world. Currently with a nearly 37% online penetration and growing, analysts estimate that rate will reach 63.9% by 2023. It’s evident that online retailers like Alibaba, which owns Taobao, used the crisis to move China into eCommerce leadership that then belonged to the United States. China owes its eCommerce dominance to Alibaba, but its future may be with JD.com. This as the U.S. Government is becoming increasingly adversarial with Alibaba.

Shopify’s next geographical ploy isn’t in the early-stage metaverse, it’s in the late-stage region that’s been trickiest for America’s modern brands to find success. Context is necessary. In 2017, Alibaba wanted to partner with digitally-native brands, so it thought like Amazon and went on a public relations campaign to attract American retailers to the marketplace. I sat in a Detroit conference center as a guest of Alibaba when a charismatic Jack Ma stood on stage wooing middle America’s small businesses. He’d later say, “Alibaba’s existed for 18 years, and we are so influential in China–but nobody in America knows about us.” And he was right, even after Alibaba’s record-setting IPO in 2014.

The same year, JD tried to appeal to the same country but with a slightly different market: It invested $397 million in Farfetch to bring American luxury to China. It fizzled. In 2020, Farfetch revised its strategy and ended up partnering with Alibaba and Richemont in a deal structure that far exceeded the original JD partnership.

Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang was quoted saying at the time:

This highly complementary partnership brings together some of the world’s leading luxury retail and technology platforms, representing another milestone in Alibaba’s strategy to meet the rapidly growing demand for luxury products in China. The Chinese luxury market — which is expected to account for half of global luxury sales by 2025 — consists of hundreds of millions of young, digitally native consumers.

Over the past two years, JD and Alibaba retooled their approaches to gain traction with America’s direct-to-consumer brands. Alibaba homed in on the luxury market and poached Farfetch from JD. Now, JD has made its counter move. It is teaming with Shopify, the leader in online merchant services for modern retailers by GMV (and potential). They’ve essentially switched strategies: one traveled from middle America up market and the other traveled down market in its focus on the American middle. It’s rare that JD outmaneuvers its larger Chinese rival; here it has its second chance to try.

This is take two for JD and it’s counting on Shopify’s direct relationship with a growing number of smaller brands. The Chinese mainland is perhaps the most coveted audience for North American retailers today but without a high level of sophistication and relationship development, it’s close to impossible for American merchants to market their products to the largest eCommerce audience in the world. GlobalData estimates that China’s online retail economy is more than double that of the United States:

According to GlobalData’s E-Commerce Analytics, e-commerce sales in China grew at a CAGR of 17.7% between 2017 and 2021 to reach the value of CNY13.8 trillion (US$2.1 trillion) in 2021.

Shopify found a way to help its merchants reach those trillions of CNY. It’s joining Chinese marketplace JD.com, and not Alibaba, in a partnership that portends to help its merchants succeed in a market that will be worth $3.3 trillion by 2025.

The deal is a win for both sides. Shopify’s business soared during the pandemic, and unearthing new areas of growth for its merchants is key to Shopify’s next level-up. Cross-border commerce is a logistical hurdle for many small and medium sized brands as they attempt global expansion. Shopify, which wants to be the internet toolbox for online sellers, will gain a competitive advantage by helping its brands make the jump to new markets.

In 2018, 2PM predicted that China would become the next growth market for DTC brands otherwise facing climbing customer acquisition costs. As believed then, the brands that could successfully go-to-market in China would be the haves; the rest will be the have nots.

Chinese eCommerce is a worthwhile investment for well-prepared DNVBs. McKinsey&Company estimates that by 2025, Chinese shoppers will account for nearly 45% of global luxury spending. This translates to “7.6 million Chinese households will represent RMB 1 trillion in global luxury sales, an amount that is double that of 2016, and equivalent to the size in 2016 of the French, Italian, Japanese, UK, and US markets combined,” according to the consultancy.

The Shopify x JD partnership levels the playing field, to be a part of the “haves” be a part of Shopify, or so the theory goes. It is now a conduit to the largest market and JD is now a pathway to bringing more products from East to West. As part of the partnership, JD.com will set up an accelerated channel for Shopify brands that will narrow the onboarding window from 12 months to three to four weeks. JD will handle logistics including warehousing and deliveries for the US brands.

For JD, Shopify is a coup considering that $SHOP’s current link to China is through Alipay, the financial wallet powered by Alibaba-affiliate Ant Group. That deal will likely go sour.

The Chinese government has set a target to increase national online retail sales by around 44% between 2021 and 2025. JD, Alibaba, and now Shopify will be a key part of that push. There are risks. Even with the support of Shopify and JD.com, business in China needs to be closely managed to tailor marketing, messaging, and even inventory selection to appeal to the region. In this way, there is only so much that a platform can do to facilitate opportunity for its brand partners. Shopify’s global success here will depend on the individual successes of the brands themselves. This is in line with Lütke’s philosophy who doesn’t love to play the king maker.

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes | 艺术：Alex Remy 和 Christina Williams

备忘录品牌布雷迪

The backdrop of the launch of the Brady Brand is a years-long shift in how Under Armour and its rivals are doing business. Adidas and Nike are expanding their definitions of brand equity while Under Armour is tightening the reigns. In February of 2020, 2PM wrote a deep dive into UA’s lack of focus:

There are a number of technical and financial concerns that Under Armour has ahead. With a new CEO in Patrik Frisk, there is an opportunity to course correct in several categories to include: product development, financial health, and brand management. The company that Kevin Plank launched from his mother’s basement has influenced 25 years of performance wear technologies but it’s no longer synonymous with the category that it established.

The message was a timely one. In October of 2020, UA announced a plan to cut back on wholesale partners (it exited 3,000 stores!), minimize discounts, and reduce its SKU count:

As it overhauls wholesale, the brand is also upping its focus on direct-to-consumer channels, where it plans to offer fewer promotions and discounts to fuel healthier margins.

This left the door open to the NFL’s greatest quarterback to go all-in on his own brand without infringing on his existing partnership with Under Armour, an idea that would not have worked as a Nike or Adidas athlete. After years defining himself as one of the best quarterbacks to ever play, Brady is now trying to lead another new brand to victory away from the gridiron. First, it was achieving notoriety for the TB12 supplement empire and now it is a focus on fashion retail. Tom Brady is redefining the playbook for the athlete-anchored brand with Brady, his new line of athletic and lifestyle apparel that debuts next week.

His launch strategy resembles that of a modern brand playbook: the digitally-native department store partnership of choice, the NIL deals, and the emphasis on direct-to-consumer and online storytelling.

In an interview with WWD, the Tampa Bay quarterback outlines how Brady will be sold at brady-brand.com and through Nordstrom. The collection will debut with 145 pieces in three categories, and will maintain a monthly drop schedule popularized by brands like Parade, Noah, Todd Snyder, and Drake’s. The plan is to steadily expand the brand into more upscale categories but for now, the focus is on athleisure and office casual.

Brady’s effort to build a DTC brand follows the USWMNT athletes and and Jimmy Butler’s BIGFACE brand. It’s important to note that all three brands used Shopify for their product launches. It is certainly a new era for athlete merchandising and brand development, with more control and ownership over his namesake brand. What’s notable is who he chose to partner with to create the brand and who he didn’t. Women’s Wear Daily outlined his partnership with Jens Grede, the brand creator behind Frame, Good American and Skims (the latter two of which have big-name influencer associations with Khloé and Kim Kardashian, respectively), who was introduced to Brady by longtime fashion executive Andrew Rosen. The line is designed by Public School co-founder Dao-Yi Chow, who it’s noted is not just a fashion insider but also a marathon runner. The group, collectively, is one that understands the function of sports apparel, the importance of style and how to build and launch modern consumer brands.

Missing from the project? Under Armour, which sponsors Brady. Now, you may understand why.

It’s a sorely missed opportunity for Under Armour, which had a failed launch into elevated sports and lifestyle attire with UAS and an earlier attempt to knock off brands like Ministry of Supply and Mizzen + Main. It dropped UAS in 2016 and lasted one season before the plug was pulled. Brady could have been UA’s next opportunity – the timing is better, and the face of the brand couldn’t be more influential in the sports world. Instead, UA was sidelined, which WWD addresses:

Brady opted to launch the brand with Grede rather than through his longtime sponsor Under Armour. The Baltimore-based sports company is now focusing nearly exclusively on performance sports apparel and its attempt to move into fashion in 2016 with the UAS collection, designed by Tim Coppens, met with limited success and was discontinued after one year. An Under Armour spokesperson said Brady continues to part of the UA family as an ambassador, as he has for 11 years, but said the Brady brand is his personal, off-the-field endeavor and separate from his partnership with the company.

Brady is setting up new rules for the options athletes have before them as they navigate the world of brand sponsorships, partnerships and merchandising. A macroeconomic shift in how his title sponsor does business (Under Armour is retreating from a fashion opportunity), the door is open for what may become a successful attempt to unseat Michael Jordan as the most astute figure in athlete retail (though it’s clearly too early to say). From the new site:

BRADY™ is the first technical apparel brand to apply two decades of pro sports level innovation and engineering to create a system of clothing that performs across every activity. With over 3 years in development, our fabrics and materials fuse natural elements with cutting-edge technology. Designed with the body in mind. Built to move, breathe, and sweat while you compete, live and recover.

Doesn’t this sound like a conflict of interest with Under Armour?

The renewed focus is working for Under Armour but at a cost of going all-in on the opportunities of the moment (though UA is now dabbling in NFTs). UA has chosen to set aside fashion, casual wear, DTC fitness, web3, and metaverse development – leaving Nike and Adidas as the go-to major retailers in those other areas. In fact, Nike is laying the groundwork for further expansion. The brand is currently going up against Lululemon in a patent spat over Mirror technology – demonstrating it’s fighting for ownership in a bigger Nike universe.

Brady seldom loses, these days. Which is why it’s even more incredible that Under Armour didn’t make an exception to their new strategy rules. It’s a decision that they the forefathers of technical fabrics may come to regret if the brand does what every other Brady pursuit seems to do: win.

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes | 艺术：Alex Remy 和 Christina Williams