Valuable insights can be found where you least expect them.
Imagine that someone understood the eventual market for semiconductor manufacturers in 1954 when the first silicon-based transistor was developed at Bell Labs. Or if someone read a 1977 journal article published by the American Chemical Society (Microprocessor use in cars projected to grow) and deemed it actionable data to use as a long-term investor or business. At the time, microprocessors were only used to control a car’s fuel injection system. The short blurb began:
Coming to grips with the microprocessor was a major item of business at the 1977 Society of Automotive Engineers’ International Engineering Congress & Exposition in Detroit last week.
The article continued on for no more than 500 words; that’s how insignificant the matter seemed at the time. Ten years later, and the entire semiconductor industry generated over $30 billion in sales. Some 44 years after that journal article in Chemical Engineering News, every new vehicle produced relied on a collection of microprocessors within its technologies. Then, in 2021, the entire automotive manufacturing industry and the $600 billion annual semiconductor sales came to a standstill.
More than 10.5 million vehicles were cut from production in 2021, according to Auto News. In 2022, automakers around the world cut an estimated 4.3 million cars from their production schedules. Losing 2-3 million units would still be a hardship for manufacturers, but it would indicate that supply chain issues are beginning to ease.
There weren’t enough to produce vehicles. Long gone were the days of chips controlling fuel injection systems alone; today, our cars are mobile computers. The second-order effects on the chip shortage are too many to list. But what if you could try to foresee how differing industries would interact with your own?
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I often wonder what could be done in business by understanding matters outside of the traditional scope. Over the past months, I have been accumulating and considering data on trends that I felt would be valuable to the readership. These will not all be retail trends (in fact, only one will be). However, each of them are necessary to understand through the lenses of the various industries with leaders who read 2PM today. If nothing else, commerce and media follow societal behaviors, trends, and changes.
So while a scientific trend may not directly impact the marketing of a fiber-filled, probiotic canned drink or the most popular athleisure pants of the moment, one can see the relevance with enough patient perspective.
The only constant is change. Every industry is in a perpetual state of evolution, some more than others. Each are influenced by a complex interplay of macroeconomic, sociological, and population trends. The challenge for modern businesses is not just to keep up, but to anticipate and adapt to these shifts before they become the norm. There is a lot of interplay between disciplines here and I believe that, ultimately, it’s made the forecasts much stronger than if each category was viewed in and of itself. At the day’s end, it’s about thriving in an era of transformative change.
This September, the 2PM newsletter is proud to present an exclusive five-part series that delves deep into the forces that will shape us in the years to come. With a focus on brevity and clarity, each essay in this series promises insights distilled into charts, graphs, and concise text, capped at 900 words. No fluff, just the essentials that every member needs to be ahead of the curve.
Macroeconomic Trends: Currency fluctuations, trade wars, and changing fiscal policies are just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Our first essay will dive into one geographical trend that may provide a clear roadmap for businesses to navigate this anticipated change.
Forecast 1 of 5: Climate Gentrification and Retail
At the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans migrated to places like Texas, Florida, and Arizona to seek greener pastures – literally or figuratively. It doesn’t take much to manufacture a notable migration. The second order effects of this micro-migration were astounding. The job market has been permanently altered, housing prices have risen with increased…
Retail Reimagined: The retail sector has seen seismic shifts over the past two decades. From the rise of eCommerce to the redefinition of brick-and-mortar experiences, to the fluctuations in commercial real estate prices: the retail landscape is undergoing a renaissance. But what’s next? In our second installment, we’ll explore one trend that has accelerated over the previous few years.
Forecast 2 of 5: The Enclosed Mall Goes Extinct
The last decade has borne witness to profound shifts in urban planning and commercial development. As urban centers and big cities grapple with socioeconomic turmoil, many are beginning to wonder: is the traditional mall facing extinction? As the landscape of American consumerism undergoes significant transformation, a return to Victor Gruen’s original vision for retail centers…
Science and Innovation: The third essay of our series delves into one development and its influence on industries. From biotech breakthroughs to green technology solutions, the sciences bring revolutionary changes to how we live, work, and do business. This is about one change that will impact how we choose to live. 
Forecast 3 of 5: The Rise of Medicine 3.0
The trajectory of medical advancements stand as a beacon of human progress. From the days of herbal concoctions and rudimentary surgeries to today’s high-resolution imaging and targeted therapies, we’ve come a long way. However, nestled within the pages of Dr. Peter Attia’s “Outlive: The Science & Art of Longevity,” is an intriguing proposal, a transition…
Sociological Shifts: Societies evolve, and with them, consumer behaviors and preferences. The fourth essay will delve into one surprising and significant sociological shift observed over recent months, projected over the next decade. Understanding what this looks like projected into the future may help you prepare for it.
Forecast 4 of 5: The End of Synthetic Fabrics
A little over two decades ago, gasoline engines dominated the streets. Then came along Tesla, with its groundbreaking idea for a EV future. It was far-fetched then, then it became a little less so. By 2023, it’s not uncommon to see 20 Tesla vehicles and countless other electric vehicles in a day’s commute.
Population Dynamics: Our final essay will focus on one changing demographic that is often overshadowed by politicized ones. It’s not just about numbers but understanding the nuanced needs, aspirations, and challenges of this new group that will teeter on the edge of minority / majority.
FORECAST 5 OF 5: The Post-Generational Society
In the tapestry of human history, the single nuclear family dwelling in isolation is a relatively recent concept. For centuries, multi-generational households – where grandparents, parents, children, and sometimes even uncles and aunts coexisted under a single roof – were the norm. This model of living, rooted deeply in community values, promoted shared responsibilities, pooled…
To our esteemed 2PM members, this series is more than just a collection of essays. It’s a testament to our commitment to empower you with the knowledge and insights you need to lead. As industries evolve, informed decisions become the pillars of success. With this series, we aim to be a compass that guides you through the intricacies of change, ensuring that you’re always a step ahead.
Join us on this enlightening journey through the trends that will redefine the way we think, act, and conduct business.
By Web Smith | With Hilary Milnes, Christina Williams, and Alex Remy