Members: Juneteenth and American Dreams

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The discussion between us was slow and every answer labored. It was difficult to tactfully explain the concept of an “unnecessary wait.”

There’s always a wait.

Modern Retail editor Cale Weissman wanted to understand the Black perspective of those of us in eCommerce. I didn’t have many answers for him. I worked to moderate my responses, struggling to mask volumes of persisting frustrations within the digital industries. At one point, Weissman asked for a list of venture-backed founders in the direct-to-consumer space. There was, of course, the obvious answer. Tristan Walker rolls off the tongue. But I didn’t have a novel response in that moment and I was ashamed of that. There are so few Black professionals in this space. For the vast majority of prospective executives, founders, or investors, they’re still waiting.

A portmanteau of “June” and “nineteenth”, you’ll see Juneteenth celebrations from Target, Nike, Glossier, Deciem, Ford Motors, Adobe, Allstate, Altria, Best Buy, Google, JPMorgan, Lyft, Mastercard, Postmates, Tesla, SpaceX, RXBar, Spotify, Twitter, Square, Workday, Uber, and countless others. Most of it will be in vain and some of the efforts will be widely panned.

Dino-Ray “96,000” Ramos on Twitter: “.@Snapchat released a statement about their #Juneteenth filter… pic.twitter.com/KWPZnlWG3n / Twitter”

@Snapchat released a statement about their #Juneteenth filter… pic.twitter.com/KWPZnlWG3n

You’ll observe brands, people, and media commentators missing the point. You’ll see gimmicks, carefully crafted statements, and an oversimplification of a complex period in American history. Imagine our great grandchildren over-simplifying the present day.

For some of us, Juneteenth was only sort of a celebration. Imagine wanting something for your entire life and then waiting two and a half more years for that something. It’s a bittersweet celebration. For those of us who descended from those strong-minded South Texans, today is the annual reminder of their physical, mental, and emotional resilience. It’s a reminder of our inherited endurance, will, and resourcefulness. There’s always a wait. So, Juneteenth: a celebration, sure. A national holiday? Of course. But within the confines of the classrooms, offices, or neighborhoods of our American cities, Juneteenth should be a day to reflect on the waits that remain.

Grandchild of Slaves and Grandma to Me

Dorothy Smith’s grandson’s first essay remained on her bookshelf. It was an elementary school recount of Jack Roosevelt Robinson’s embattled life, the first man to cross the color barrier in Major League Baseball. I remember the essay because in 1992, it was my first time using a color printer for a school project. I recall the pride of using an image of his baseball card as the hook for a project that made me emotional, even as a nine-year-old. The eight-page report was double-spaced with size 18 font. For some reason, she was proud of that essay and it remained in her home until her passing in April of 2014. She’d critique the cadence and the word choices. She’d implore me to slow down when I read it aloud; I stuttered heavily back then. I credit our conversations for helping to heal that ailment.

Between 1992 and 2014, she’d go on to help me with a number of essays. As she got older and less capable, she’d listen to me narrate the stories that I wrote. But earlier in my life, she’d actually help me write them. A highly educated woman, she was my hero. By the end of this essay, she might be yours. One of those essays was a seventh grade report on Juneteenth’s impact on my own family. I’ll never forget her input:

The message of freedom didn’t make it all the way down here and, so, they had to wait a little bit longer. There was always a wait. There’s always a wait.

President Abraham Lincoln drafted Proclamation 95 in September 22, 1862. Imagine hearing word of this proclamation and then waiting for it to save you. It was effective, five months later, as of January 1, 1863. Imagine counting down those days to freedom. For some, the count was far longer. For that lot, their freedom was hidden by economic and political disdain for the federal order. It would be an additional two years before my relatives heard the news.

Every advocate of slavery naturally desires to see blasted, and crushed, the liberty promised the black man by the new constitution.

Those were the words of Abraham Lincoln in 1864 to Union General Stephen Hurlbut, an ally on paper but a critic in private. Even after the order, a number of states avoided the action required to fulfill the president’s wishes. According to Dorothy Smith, the population of Texas was aware of their ordered freedom long before they received it. For them, it was a painful wait. I’ll never forget the emphasis on “there’s always a wait.” These were the words of Dorothy Smith: child of laborers and sharecroppers. She was an entrepreneur, a retailer, a real estate agent, and mother to six college graduates. Dorothy was the grandchild of Texas slaves and my grandmother.

Her grandparents were born in 1858 and 1853. Dave and Sallie Draper Hill were born enslaved in Panola, a small town on the border of Texas and Louisiana. They were of the last American slaves freed by that Galveston, Texas order on June 19th, 1865. They’d later marry in 1881. According to the 1900 census, they’d go on to have 12 children. My great-grandmother was born in 1895. She’d later become an independent farmer, raising cattle, pigs, chickens. She grew and sold vegetables and she tended to a fruit tree orchard on her property. Her daughter would marry James Smith in 1944 and remain married to the Army Air Corps veteran until their passing – one year apart.

I always contemplate what earlier generations of my family would have done with real opportunity. It always seemed as though they were capable, potent, and waiting. It was Dorothy who we credit with taking matters into her own hands. She was defiant in her capitalism, her pursuit of education, her politics, her advocacy, and the opportunities afforded to her six children. She resented the idea of Juneteenth, in ways. It represented neglect and deception, a stalling of opportunity. It was the embodiment of an unnecessary wait for the opportunity to live a full life.

She stopped waiting.

The Sudden Retailer

With her meager savings, she launched two businesses that operated in tandem. Both companies were within the same strip mall and they’d feed each other business for decades. A licensed barber and realtor, “Melody” became her calling card. By the mid-1950’s, the barbershop generated substantial cash flow, allowing her to hire staff and procure basic wholesale partnerships. Her storefront would double as a beauty supply retailer, amplifying her earnings by catering to an audience with few places else to shop. This should sound like a familiar strategy. Her clientele was working class and upwardly mobile, a trend that would continue throughout the Civil Rights era.

Many would eventually buy homes in the area Northeast area of downtown Houston. Melody Realty would be one of their guides. The Fifth Ward was an area where Black Americans could buy homes without political or social persecution. Regardless of one’s wealth, the city’s affluent remained deed restricted – first legally and then by proxy. The middle-class son of a Texas Instruments engineer and flight attendant, I’d later be born in that same downtrodden area in 1983. Thirty years later, the city’s deed policies remained. There’s always a wait.

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Pictured: Dorothy, right, with her son.

Dorothy would later become one of the preferred real estate agent of her area. In this way, her storefront operated as a funnel. Her Melody brand of business blended short-term cash flows with longer-term windfalls. It changed the trajectory of our family. James, an Army Air Corps veteran, and Dorothy would send six children to colleges across the United States throughout the 1960s and 1970s. All would graduate and five would go on to have children. By the time that we were born, the idea of college was an afterthought. It was just another task for us. And so was entrepreneurship.

Dorothy would enforce a strict policy for each of her children. My father and his siblings would be required to earn their barber’s license while in high school. This sense of economic independence would propel a number of those children to impactful lives in business, religion, and medicine. Today, Melody Realty continues to operate in the Houston area, a testament to her work.

Conclusion: Ending The Wait

By the time I was born, she’d complete classes at Rice University. She was omnipresent in our lives and she stressed the importance of sacrifice. Dorothy Smith’s life had a profound impact on my own. In our home, she’s taken the form of a superhero. Imagine being born into a world that penned you for one thing and then choosing to achieve something more. She’d send six kids to school before the United States provided her the right to vote. My father was 13 when the Voting Rights Act passed. There’s always a wait.

Dorothy was uncomfortable with Juneteenth because it was symbolic of the proverbial weight of an unnecessary wait. This same concept can be applied across generations, including our own. Dorothy would argue that she was nothing special. Imagine what her parents could have done with the freedoms that Dorothy possessed. I can envision Dorothy Smith atop of our industry, if she was born during my lifetime.

The story of upward mobility in America is one of waiting. In the 1800s, it was for freedom. It the early 1900s, it was waiting for the dignity of citizenship. In the late 1900s, it was the wait for legal equality. And today, it’s the wait for equity in treatment and opportunity. We’re still in the proverbial period of waiting.

Today, we are celebrating the overcoming of adversity. It’s not intended to be a pleasant memory. I’d have preferred to celebrate no Juneteenth at all. I am sure that Sallie and Dave Hill would have agreed. When you’re deserving of opportunity, every single moment without it will feel like a decade. Now, imagine how two years of waiting may feel. The daughter of field laborers, she birthed a generation of Black professionals. Her life was a force function that bent time. There should have been more Dorothy’s in the 1950s and 1960s. There should be more of her children. We have to recognize that an unnecessary wait is just as fraught as no opportunity at all.

The hope is that, today and every day forward, we work to bend time. The leadership of the industries that define American exceptionalism should reflect America. We should provide opportunity, fill executive suites, hire the best people, invest in resilient entrepreneurs, mentor, lead, build, uplift, and provide the freedoms that some Americans take for granted.

There are more Dorothy’s than we know and some of them are waiting. The 45 second pause between Weissman’s question and my answer likely made him as uncomfortable as it made me. In a better version of our world, I would have answered his question with ease. It’s critical that we identify our own unnecessary waits. Once we do, it’s our responsibility to end those waits with opportunity. It’s the one small change that can alter the course of generations.

Essay: Dorothy’s Grandson | Editor: Hilary Milnes | Art: Alex Remy | About

Member Brief: When In Home

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For decades, media monetized by way of display advertising, native advertising, branded media, affiliate marketing, and eventually direct commerce. Like a technological progression, the funnel widened and shortened over the years. The definition of media broadened with time. Today, click through rate (CTR) means less to a publisher than the revenue that one visitor accounts for. Accounting for revenue per customer means that customer acquisition cost (CAC) is as much a media metric as it is a commerce one. A publisher now assesses her readership with a measure of lifetime value (LTV); this is especially the case for subscription-based operations. A “like” or other forms of engagement used to matter. Today, the measurement of conversion rate and transaction value are prioritized. Media is a competition for audience ownership; it’s a 360 degree battle for your attention.

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备忘录Z 世代套利

对于那些在 2010 年使用安卓智能手机的人来说,你可能还记得对错过的恐惧。对于那些可以使用刚刚起步的 Instagram 的 iPhone 用户来说,他们一定会提醒你,你的手机无法使用该软件。没有什么能与富家子弟照片分享平台的美感和网络效应相媲美。由于害怕错过,许多人离开了安卓,转投 iOS。对于那些没有机会的人来说,苹果的产品免租地存在于他们的脑海中,直到他们也有机会拥有自己的 iPhone。这就是苹果公司的战略,如果没有约翰-杜尔对史蒂夫-乔布斯和他的应用程序商店的远见卓识,苹果公司很可能不会执行这一战略。

2008 年,Kleiner Perkins 董事长兼合伙人约翰-多尔(John Doerr)意识到,iPhone 的推出将为移动软件行业带来变革性影响。据说,史蒂夫-乔布斯(Steve Jobs)私下与杜尔讨论了 iPhone 新兴应用程序商店的前景。乔布斯最初认为这个市场是一个私人实体,将完全由苹果公司的管理层控制。多尔却有不同的打算。他认为,通过将应用程序的开发和营销外包给第三方软件工程师团队,苹果公司将在其移动操作系统周围建立一条有效的护城河。

最终,乔布斯同意了。他同意数以万计的软件工程师为苹果的新移动操作系统开发产品的生态系统锁定潜力。由 Kleiner 的马特-墨菲(现供职于 Menlo ventures)管理的 1 亿美元iFund 基金于 2008 年启动,后来翻了一番,达到 2 亿美元。Kleiner 对新兴移动软件产业的投入直接或间接地影响了消费主义。众多风险投资公司发现了移动应用程序将带来的巨大商机,数十亿美元的风险投资随之而来。

美国苹果应用商店中的主要 iPhone 应用 | 资料来源:Priori Data:Priori Data

正如 Kleiner 的开创性iFund曾经激发了连史蒂夫-乔布斯(Steve Jobs)都无法预料的套利机会一样,iPhone 再次成为同样重要的机会中心。截至 2019 年 3 月, iPhone在美国的 装机量约为 1.93亿部。鉴于美国人口约为 3.72 亿,这是一个惊人的数字。预计到 2021 年,45.4% 的美国人将成为 iPhone 用户。

中国在移动支付方面已经超过了美国和大部分发达国家,而一种新的数字货币(当局称这种货币将像现金一样,在任何地方都能被接受)将使中国在货币领域遥遥领先。[1]

苹果公司的应用程序商店帮助 iPhone 成为 21 世纪初最重要的消费品。它为交通、通讯、广告和全球商务提供了动力。但将近 12 年过去了,美国的商务应用仍然落后于其他全球强国。想想中国,2018 年中国的数字购物渗透率达到 73.6%。移动支付继续推动着这个亚洲国家的绝大多数在线零售活动。

中国移动支付的崛起

因此,中国超过 35% 的零售额是通过网上零售渠道完成的。在美国,网上零售的采用率徘徊在 12%。在中国,移动支付在不同年龄、地域和经济地位的人群中都很普遍。在线购买和销售商品的能力已非常普遍,Z 世代已成为中国在线奢侈品购物的主要市场。这得益于过去五年移动支付的爆炸式增长,2018 年交易额达到 45.1 万亿元。根据中国人民银行的数据,这一数字在五年内增长了 28 倍。这主要是受文化转变的推动,中国的年轻人(Z 世代)被赋予了在中国的在线零售和媒体生态系统中进行商品和服务交易的权力。据中国媒体报道,近距离支付平台支付宝和微信占据了近 90% 的交易量。根据 Statista 2019 年的数据,在美国,有 6190 万名近场支付用户,仅交易了 1137.9 亿美元的零售额。

零售套利前瞻

Z 世代是美国历史上人数最多、最年轻、种族最多元化的一代。该群体拥有 8200 多万成员,占美国人口的 27% 以上。

与美国同龄人相比,中国的 Z 世代在购买消费品方面更为积极,但 Z 世代目前的购买力可能会让您大吃一惊。TransUnion 在 2018 年第二季度至 2019 年第二季度期间研究了 18 岁至 23 岁买家的信贷市场。在这一年中,这一消费群体获得了 319,000 笔抵押贷款、746,000 笔个人贷款、775 万张信用卡和 437 万笔汽车贷款。

中国奢侈品网购渗透率 | OC&C

将近 27% 的美国人(还在不断增加)属于 Z 世代,这一人群对传统零售商和 DTC 品牌都至关重要。在通常被视为美国商业趋势领先指标的中国,Z 世代在奢侈品零售业的采用率遥遥领先。在美国,"Z 世代 "正等待着与 "千禧一代 "和 "X 世代 "一样频繁的购物机会。千禧一代对 DTC 品牌的偏好仅为传统零售商的 4%,而 Z 世代对这些网络品牌的偏好则超过传统 零售商的 40-45%。

Z 世代是 20 世纪 90 年代中期至 2010 年间出生的群体,已经以其金融知识而闻名。与更早的 "千禧一代 "相比,Z 世代更加成熟和务实,他们精通财务和技术,在目睹兄弟姐妹和父母经历 2008 年经济衰退后,他们掌握了生存技能。[2]

这些都是他们通过 iPhone 使用的社交渠道成长起来的品牌:Snapchat、TikTok、WhatsApp、Instagram 等。2020 年及以后的 DTC 套利将与移动支付密切相关。CashApp、Venmo 和Current等青少年银行程序的日益普及,可能会开始帮助美国人缩小中美移动支付普及率之间的差距。Apple Pay 是这一活动的核心,它是最有可能影响 Z 世代零售习惯的工具。

无标题

在线零售 / DTC 套利:2008 年:Shopify 优于定制构建2012:Warby 的公关策略2014:Facebook 广告2016:关键联盟合作2018:在不投放广告的情况下卖出最初的 300-500 万美元

Z 世代依赖技术,X 世代则身体独立。在上世纪七八十年代,整天骑车郊游和不经意的过夜是家常便饭,而如今已大不如前。聚会场所和机会越来越多地以数字层的形式出现。这样一来,千禧一代的父母不得不接受新时代的独立。驾照和汽车越来越少,订阅和青少年银行账户越来越多。

亚历克西斯是美国中西部的一名初中女生。她是一名优等生、运动员和全面发展的好孩子,时不时会获得一些额外的特权。她的苹果手机支持 Apple Pay,她喜欢 TikTok 和 Instagram,她迷恋 Glossier 和 Athleta,还有一点被赋予的独立性--在 2019 年的前三个季度里,她用 Glossier 和 Athleta 的购物车交易了 113.41 美元。限制因素是她获得资金的渠道,苹果公司可能会通过提供点对点订阅产品来解决这一限制。Apple Pay 提供了一种独立性,而美国人仍在与之决斗。但这种情况正在发生变化。父母对子女在手机上保持现金余额非常信任,尤其是当他们可以轻松监控支出和可用性时。

如果你问 Warby Parker 的创始人,团队是如何迅速扩大规模的,他们可能会提到当时 Facebook 和 Instagram 广告的低成本。他们可能会提到精明的公关工作促成了那篇气度不凡的《GQ》文章。他们的第一批处方眼镜就是在这一时刻售出的。

70% 的 Z 世代在去年进行过应用内移动支付。超过了其他任何一代人。[3]

技术和经济上的优势时不时地会让那些未雨绸缪的品牌如虎添翼。与传统零售业相比,Z 世代更青睐直接面向消费者的品牌。对于直接面向消费者的品牌(Z 世代更青睐直接面向消费者的品牌)来说,有机会通过吸引被零售业老牌企业抛弃的这一代消费者来缩短营销漏斗。传统品牌的营销对象是美国年轻人的父母,而不是直接与能让他们受益的人群沟通。数据表明,随着 Apple Pay 的采用率不断提高,Z 世代将成为迄今为止面向千禧一代和 X 世代营销的商品的主要消费者。

2020 年

我们低估了苹果卡作为 "家庭共享"(Family Share)功能的重要性,"家庭共享 "是一项允许苹果用户与家人共享数字产品和资产的计划。当 "Z 世代 "有能力消费(同时对父母负责)时,27% 的美国消费者就会偏爱 DTC 品牌,并涌入市场。这就是这个零售时代的潜在套利机会。

从这个角度看,公司战略的这一微小转变就像约翰-杜尔(John Doerr)负责的那一刻。要么苹果公司将建立一个原生功能,允许监护人 "订阅 "并核算每月可能分配给其家属的费用。或者由外部开发商设计第三方解决方案。在所有可供消费者使用的移动支付解决方案中,苹果公司是家庭和金融领域最值得信赖的公司。

苹果卡是一个很少有人认可的平台。这也是另一个锁定机会,也许是蒂姆-库克时代的第一个锁定机会。由于退出渠道少、倍数低、客户获取成本不断增加,DTC 生态系统的生存能力不断减弱,这让运营商和投资者都感到棘手。通过加快 Z 世代成为独立消费者的步伐,苹果公司将在库比蒂诺设计的硬件商品化的时代获益匪浅。

就像硅谷受益于 2008 年苹果应用商店的民主化一样,这个时代的消费品牌也将受益于家庭消费的民主化。我们的 Z 世代女儿想要Balm Dotcom

点击这里阅读第 330 期策划

研究与报告:Web Smith | 编辑:Tracey Wallace |关于 2PM