备忘录Peloton 跳动的心脏

 

Peloton has mastered the playbook for responding in moments of brand crisis. That playbook’s name is Ryan Reynolds.

The fitness company finds new ways to capture news cycles. The company may have been the first to ever experience a massive sell off after a fictional portrayal involving its product’s placement. In the first week of December, CNBC reported that Peloton shares fell 11.35% on Thursday, which was the same day of the debut of the Sex and the City spinoff titled “And Just Like That … ” By the following Sunday, Ryan Reynolds commissioned this new advertisement for the company.

Peloton on Twitter: “And just like that…he’s alive. pic.twitter.com/bVX8uWypFZ / Twitter”

And just like that…he’s alive. pic.twitter.com/bVX8uWypFZ

At the end of the first episode of the Sex and The City reboot, Carrie Bradshaw’s love interest clips into his Peloton for his 1,000th ride and when he dismounts, he has a heart attach and dies. Peloton was unaware of the plot line when HBO applied to use the company’s trademarks, instructor, and other intellectual property. The ordeal begs the question: does a company that doesn’t love its portrayal have any legal recourse? Before Peloton could entertain filing suit against HBO for the show’s impact on its stock price, Ryan Reynolds stepped in once again.

Almost two years ago to the day, Reynolds came to Peloton’s rescue. An ad for Reynolds-owned Aviation Gin starred Monica Ruiz, the actress who became infamous as the “Peloton wife” in an ad spot that earned a negative market reaction and plenty of Twitter pile-ons. As the story goes, Reynolds heard about the Peloton ad at 2:34 PM on a Tuesday as the company’s stock was falling and turned around his own ad within hours. It earned $9.3 million in ad exposure in just two days. Reynolds’s quick reaction brought levity to what was an overall grim moment for Peloton.

Reynolds has struck gold again with his latest attempt to pump … life … into Peloton’s sinking stock. A 38-second ad spot narrated by Reynolds puts a new spin on Peloton’s recent association with the death of major Sex and the City character Mr. Big in the new HBO reboot And Just Like That. Peloton was collateral damage in the show’s push to modernize the classic series. In the reboot, Big has become a Peloton junkie, and his affinity for his favorite instructor mirrors the attachment that many other loyal riders have for the spin class’s stars. As the New York Times reported, Peloton appears to have been blindsided by the appearance in the show and could have taken potential legal recourse.

Instead, Reynolds, one of the most respected (and perhaps unexpected) marketers of late made lemonade out of lemons with his marketing company Maximum Effort’s new spot. It was a similarly quick turnaround to the one seen in 2019: the show’s first two episodes premiered on December 9; throughout the weekend Peloton lit up on Twitter as people responded to the plot twist. The ad was filmed on Saturday with no involvement from HBO, according to the Times, and it was released on Sunday.

Peloton on Twitter: “if we can put that spot together in 48 hours, you can do your workout today / Twitter”

if we can put that spot together in 48 hours, you can do your workout today

In the viral advertisement, a comedic voiceover by Reynolds reminds people that regular cycling is in fact good for you, as Chris Noth (who plays Mr. Big) appears alive and cozied up to the ad’s other star, Peloton instructor Jess King. The ad spot reclaimed the narrative in Peloton’s favor after its stock fell by as much as 11% in the aftermath of the show’s premiere. The timing of the bi-annual Reynolds boost couldn’t be better.

Peloton’s still struggling to maintain its position in an increasingly crowded market and has shown signs that it may be in for a tumultuous year of rebuilding the momentum found over the pandemic. The feature in And Just Like That is hardly its only problem from this year; it had to recall its treadmill, it has dealt with manufacturing shortages, decreased demand, and intensifying competition. In Peloton’s Diffusion, we explained:

There is mounting pressure from iFit (1 million subscribers), BeachBody (2.6 million subscribers), and a host of nascent fitness apps like Obe Fitness who are each eating into Peloton’s mobile app subscriber-base. There is market pressure from Lululemon and Mirror, Tonal’s continued growth, and the resilience of companies like NordicTrack and Life Fitness. And then there is Equinox and SoulCycle, who have the hardware to compete for Peloton’s prized in-home market and the physical real estate to attract affluent users out of their homes. And lastly, there is the end of the pandemic.

The events of the past week have gone to show that Peloton’s greatest assets are its star instructors. Put them at the forefront and the stock might respond in kind, they’re Peloton’s beating heart.

Edited by Hilary Milnes with art by Christina Williams 

备忘录亚马逊的护城河

Amazon’s upperhand has long been its ability to build a moat, so that the external forces affecting other retailers don’t infringe on its business. The ongoing supply chain crisis is no different, and as customers begin to scramble for last-minute gifts, Amazon is sitting in the right position as it usually is.

This has long-term implications for Amazon’s standing as rivals look for weaknesses. Ben Thompson has aptly detailed how Amazon’s ownership of its supply chain and its content fortress (manages ads and conversion) has helped the retailer set itself apart from the Anti-Amazon Alliance (Facebook, Shopify, Google). Here’s what were reported in May 2021:

亚马逊目前占据了美国数字广告市场 10.3% 的份额（之前为 7.9%），预计到 2023 年将达到 13% 的市场份额。在目前由谷歌和 Facebook（苹果也想分一杯羹）主导的广告市场上，亚马逊的 "围墙花园 "策略使其排名第三。Facebook 的 "围墙花园 "策略旨在帮助他们攀升至第一的位置。在这方面，他们比谷歌更有优势。

Through years of investments, Amazon has created its own cargo shipping fleet and is leasing planes, along with the opening of an Air Hub in Cincinnati, to avoid out-of-stock problems that have begun plaguing other retailers at this stage in the holiday shopping season. Amazon has stretched its business in myriad ways, but its advantages are no longer just product and digital-driven. As Thompson points out, Amazon’s transport business is pretty substantial. On October 5, container ship ported in Houston, Texas with a ship filled entirely by Amazon. Here’s how, according to CNBC: Amazon is making its own 53-foot cargo containers in China. Ocean Freight Analyst Steve Ferreira on the matter:

Amazon has produced probably 5,000 to 10,000 of these containers over the last two years I’ve been tracking it. When they bring these containers onto U.S. soil, once they unload them, guess what? They get to be used in the domestic system and the rail system. They don’t have to return them to Asia like everyone else does.

More container ships means more tractor units in the United States:

Amazon is also investing in the air according to Thompson. The retailer is leasing more planes and it has completed an air hub in Cincinnati, Ohio, From a September 2PM special report on how Amazon will flesh out this strategy:

Amazon Air flight activity has increased 17% between February and August 2021 after the company added 14 planes, including two that enable intra-Canadian operations. In addition to these 14 planes, Amazon uses up to 20-30 partner flights per day to ship goods from hub to hub according to a recent document: Blue Skies for Amazon Air.

Customers consider a number of factors when deciding where to purchase. Depending on circumstances, different needs take priority at different times. In December, the No. 1 need is on-time deliveries. More people will turn to Amazon when it becomes one of few retailers to have what they need in stock and available to arrive before Christmas Eve. Importantly, this asset extends to Amazon’s third-party sellers. When Amazon began fulfilling merchant orders with Fulfilled by Amazon 15 years ago, as Thompson stresses, it reinforced its supply-side moat (represented by the “m” above). More sellers benefit from Amazon’s infrastructure.

Here, Shopify and the Anti-Amazon Alliance are still catching up, and the argument around why sellers should jump ship from Amazon – even after the reports confirming that Amazon is using seller data for its own benefits – is harder to make convincingly.

By 2PM

数据：黑色星期五下跌

Updated. The writing was on the wall when holiday decorations hit sales floors in October. Thanks to persisting supply chain concerns, the holiday season began earlier than ever, which is impacting the bellwether statistics that retail industrialists rely on for forecasted investments. For the first time in history, online retail saw a reversal in year-over-year growth trends. On November 26, online shoppers spent $100 million less than they did on Black Friday 2020. Total sales fell $8.9 billion compared to last year according to Adobe Analytics. Adobe’s Lead Analyst Vivek Pandya:

Shoppers are being strategic in their gift shopping, buying much earlier in the season and being flexible about when they shop to make sure they get the best deals.

By some, the downward trend has been characterized as a contraction in eCommerce spend, but it will be remembered as a confirmation of a much larger shift in pandemic-era retail. In July’s Digital Supply Chain, I wrote about one of the changes that we’d see this fall.

This Black Friday season will see a narrative around short supply of physical goods and an emphasis on brand retailers offering NFT-based products that appeal to their most enthused consumers. Nike will sell digital shoes, Balenciaga will sell avatars for your child’s favorite multi-player game, and legacy companies will emulate the brilliance of the Bored Ape Yacht Club whose NFT sales provide access to a real-life community.

There were other contributing factors to retail’s declining Black Friday performance, and they were not exclusive to online retail. According to CNBC’s Lauren Thomas, Black Friday shopping in stores fell 28.3% from 2019’s levels. And Thanksgiving Day visits were down 90.4% from 2019 levels according to Sensormatic. It should be no surprise that the culprit behind the “down year” is actually a number of factors. The Adobe data indicates an 124% increase in out-of-stock levels. Consumers starting earlier may have taken the sting out of the November shopping event. In October 2021, I explained in No Stock For Chrismukkah:

This means Black Friday will look different. In previous holiday seasons, pricing incentives were the sales hook. This year, retailers won’t need to offer flash sales or free shipping: availability is the hook. Plainly put, if a quality product is available to ship before the holiday season, it will likely be purchased. This is what Lowe’s is signaling with their premature focus on Christmas. If they waited until the normal beginning of holiday cheer, there may not be the stock to support the spike in demand.

It’s not for a lack of trying. According to a Gallup poll, Americans intend to spend record amounts for Christmas; product availability is the problem. This forecasted spend is actually higher than pre-pandemic levels and 2020.

The other problem may be no problem at all. With spend spread over a greater period of time, even with supply chain concerns persisting, this holiday season may still set a new record in gross merchandising volume (GMV) between October and December 24. According to Adobe’s data, shoppers spent $3 billion or more 22 times so far this holiday season. Last year by this date, the GMV exceeded $3 billion just five times. There’s also conversion rates to consider:

The Black Friday conversion rates across the Adobe Sales Cloud spiked to extraordinary averages across desktop and mobile devices on Black Friday – a sign that there may still be an unmet need that Cyber Monday and beyond will account for. An elongated holiday season, fewer deals, and a supply chain under pressure are all contributing factors to America’s first Black Friday without a sales record. According to Adobe Analytics, shoppers spent $10.7 billion on Cyber Monday. This falls to 1.4% less than 2020’s record breaking Cyber Monday spend. When you consider the stay-at-home conditions of 2020, this figure is more of an accomplishment than it may seem to analysts. CNBC reports that November spend (through Cyber Monday) in the United States is up 11.9%, totaling $109.8 billion online.

Additionally, out-of-stock messages increased 8% over the week, signifying the culmination of a tumultuous season for supply chain workers and the retailers that rely on them. These out-of-stock messages are up 169% vs. 2020 figures and 258% higher than 2019.

The reality of these figures is nuanced; it could mean that demand could remain pretty strong and this year’s remaining sales volume will average out to finish higher than previous Q4 sales figures. There’s also the small chance that we’re just more grateful for what we already have.

By 2PM