深入探讨：弗里德曼定律

On Generative AI and where retail goes next. On most days, I sit in a home office and read, write, think and hope to assimilate all of what I see, experience, and feel into unique human perspectives on complex topics. Unfortunately for me, generative artificial intelligence does much of that to the nth degree. Will we still value human-made creativity? The answer to that question is complicated. In April 2021, computer scientist, podcaster, and artificial intelligence researcher Lex Fridman tweeted the following:

Humans have been gradually merging with AI for 20+ years. At some point in this century, as a collective intelligence system, we will become more AI than human and we won’t notice.

Let’s call this “Fridman’s Law” (not to be confused with Friedman’s Law). We are nearing the point of 50%+ AI as our collective intelligence system. There are few better experts than him. Fridman – an emerging celebrity for his sheer thoughtfulness and openness to debate – is as prescient as ever. Generative AI, or artificial intelligence that can create new content by following prompts, is already making waves in various industries. From writing Drake hits to creating mind-blowing art, AI has already exceed genius levels of creativity. But, what about our shopping habits? How will generative AI shake things up in the world of retail? According to a recent Axios report:

Retail and packaged consumer goods companies would be in line for $660 billion a year in productivity gains, if “use cases were fully implemented” — which would mean a 44% boost to profits.

Picture this: You’re walking down a bustling street, and suddenly, you spot a store that seems to have been designed just for you. The colors, the layout, even the products on display – it’s like someone reached into your brain and pulled out your ideal brand fit. Imagine if this wasn’t a one-time thing, but rather the norm. Generative AI will revolutionize the way brands develop their retail spaces, making them more personalized and tailored to individual consumers by using data. It will analyze droves of information about consumers, from their shopping habits to their social media activity, and use this data to create customized store layouts and product offerings. This means that each store will be unique, catering to the specific needs and desires of its customers.

The rise of generative AI promises to revolutionize the retail and CPG landscape.

In the ongoing narrative of AI’s impact on various industries, retail and consumer packaged goods (CPG) hold a position of considerable interest. The sector stands on the brink of unprecedented transformation as generative AI – systems capable of creating new content – makes its mark. As we stand in 2023, we witness the blossoming of myriad start-ups leveraging this technology, and predict a near-future where more than 50% of consumerism and brand development will be influenced by generative AI.

Let’s dig in to the impact that analysts are anticipating.

Generative AI’s Impact on Brand Development

The traditional model of brand development has been largely human-driven, with marketers and product developers relying on customer surveys, focus groups, and trend analysis to create products and campaigns that resonate with the target audience. The ensuing process involves brainstorming, designing, testing, and iterating – a cycle that can be time-consuming and susceptible to error.

Generative AI promises to revamp this process, accelerating and enriching each step with data-driven insights and automation. For instance, AI’s ability to quickly aggregate and analyze market data allows for rapid testing of concepts, ideas, and models. Businesses are already leveraging these capabilities, using AI to generate style suggestions based on customer preferences, thereby improving their overall customer experience.

Generative AI will also help brands stay ahead of the curve when it comes to trends. The technology will be able to predict what the next big thing is before it even hits the market, allowing brands to develop and stock their stores with the hottest products.

Further, AI’s generative powers extend to creative tasks such as copywriting and visual design, areas previously considered solely human domains. By digitally generating numerous variations of copy and design, AI enables faster, more diverse ideation, allowing brands to quickly adapt to changing market trends and consumer preferences.

With smarter algorithms and predictive analytics, brands will be able to anticipate consumer demand and adjust their inventory accordingly. This means fewer out-of-stock items, less overstock, and an overall smoother shopping experience for everyone involved.

Generative AI and Consumerism

Generative AI also offers a dramatic shift in the consumerism landscape. In an era where personalization is paramount, AI’s ability to tailor experiences to individual preferences revolutionizes how consumers interact with brands. This extends from choosing products to ordering ingredients for a meal or interacting with chatbots for product recommendations.

You’ll walk into a store and find exactly what you’re looking for – or perhaps something even better that you didn’t know existed. With the personalized shopping experiences I mentioned earlier, it’s likely that we’ll see a shift towards quality over quantity. Instead of buying a ton of cheap, disposable items, consumers will be more inclined to invest in products that are tailored to their specific needs and preferences. This could lead to a decrease in fast fashion.

This advancement heralds a new era of “hyper-targeting”, where retailers use generative AI to sift through massive amounts of data, identifying precise segments of consumers that are a perfect fit for their products. The information derived from such analyses allows for highly targeted advertising, ensuring that consumers are exposed to products and services they are likely to be interested in.

The Transition and Challenges

The transition to a world where AI significantly influences brand development and consumerism is not without challenges. The deployment of AI systems raises important questions around the accuracy and veracity of generated content. Brands need to ensure the quality and reliability of AI-produced material, and instigate safeguards against potential adversarial attacks.

Moreover, AI’s ability to analyze and utilize personal data opens a Pandora’s box of privacy concerns. As retailers move towards a new form of hyper-targeting that we believed we’d left behind with the eschewing of third-party data usage, they need to balance personalization with respect for consumer privacy, a task that requires stringent data governance and ethical AI practices.

摘要

By 2030, the retail and CPG landscape is set to undergo a paradigm shift, driven by the capabilities of generative AI. It will change the very fabric of brand development, accelerating ideation, and enriching creativity. It will also redefine consumerism, paving the way for hyper-personalized, data-driven consumer experiences.

Yet, as we navigate this shift, the need for a human touch remains paramount but expect that shift to happen faster than any of us will appreciate. AI should augment human creativity, not replace it. Ethical considerations, especially regarding data privacy, must be central to AI deployment.

The journey towards this AI-dominated future will be fraught with challenges and opportunities. But, if navigated thoughtfully, the impact of generative AI on brand development and consumerism could usher in a new era of retail – one marked by enhanced creativity, efficiency, personalization, and above all, value for both businesses and consumers.

As we approach 2030, the retail industry stands poised to become a testament to the potential of generative AI. Yet, as we journey forward, we must remember that this technology should serve as a tool to amplify human potential, not replace it. Retailers and CPG companies that can strike this balance will thrive in the new era, crafting brands that resonate on a personal level and fostering a customer-centric model of business. The veracity and quality of AI-generated content must be held to high standards. As AI begins to create everything from product designs to ad campaigns, businesses must ensure that this content is not just compelling but also truthful and reliable.

Additionally, while generative AI offers many opportunities for streamlining operations and improving customer interactions, it also brings potential risks. As these AI models become more integral to business operations, they also become attractive targets for adversarial attacks. Thus, robust security measures will be paramount to protect both businesses and consumers.

The rise of generative AI promises to revolutionize the retail and CPG landscape. By 2030, it is likely that over half of all brand development and consumerism will be influenced by this technology. Yet, as we navigate this transition, we must ensure that the human element remains central to all developments. Only by balancing the potential of AI with a respect for human creativity and ethical considerations can we truly unlock the transformative power of AI in the retail sector. And if we don’t see it this way, there may not be a place left for us at all. The technology is already that good, years earlier than anticipated. Sooner than expected, organic, human-made content like this will be in the minority of collective intelligence – Fridman’s Law.

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes，美术：Christina Williams 和 Alex Remy

备忘录亚马逊无线

这是一次改变科技世界的转变。人们对它进行了分析，撰写了相关文章，甚至最近还将其改编成了一部电影（我想说，这部电影非常棒）。

首先，黑莓的出现永远地改变了掌上电脑。然后，史蒂夫-乔布斯在 2007 年的一次演讲导致了这家曾经占据智能手机市场 45% 市场份额的公司的消亡。黑莓公司成立于 1984 年，1999 年发布了第一款手机。Research In Motion公司（黑莓的创建者）拥有8500万用户，在2013年达到顶峰。到 2016 年，这一数字下降到 2300 万。

当然，全部原因不只是演讲。我们都知道这一点。当然，这款手机非常出色。在当时，AT&T 是人们梦寐以求的运营商，因为只有它能为你提供银盘上的 iPhone。苹果与当时的 Cingular Wireless 达成的协议，为其无线数据基础设施的投资提供了资金支持。我认为，正是运营商经济的重新格式化决定了未来 15 年的计算机发展。杰基-麦克尼什，《失去信号 》一书的作者： 的作者杰基- 麦克尼什 写道：

如果说黑莓的兴衰给了我们什么启示的话，那就是创新竞赛没有终点，赢家和输家的位置可以瞬间改变。

最近有报道称亚马逊正在探讨为亚马逊 Prime 用户提供无线计划的可能性，这引发了人们极大的兴趣和猜测。亚马逊之所以会寻求这样一项交易，有几个原因，这与 2007 年苹果公司与 Cingular 公司合作以超越市场领导者的战略有相似之处。2007 年 1 月 10 日，在亚马逊发表重要讲话的第二天，《纽约时报》对这一交易及其优点进行了探讨：

他们曾考虑在 Cingular 网络上搭载苹果品牌的手机服务，但被否决了。一年前，他们确定了最终的概念，即为 AT&T 旗下 Cingular 的用户提供苹果制造的手机。

本着这种精神，本文探讨了亚马逊 Prime 以及更广泛的数据和硬件行业的潜在影响。

亚马逊无线理念背后的理由

让我们来深入探讨一下原因。亚马逊想要做的是

增强 Prime 会员资格：亚马逊的首要目标是提高亚马逊 Prime 会员的忠诚度，他们是亚马逊最有价值的客户。通过提供无线服务作为附加福利，亚马逊试图提高 Prime 会员资格的价值主张，并加强客户维系。彭博社的报道让人联想到苹果公司最初与 Cingular 的交易，让人相信亚马逊将受到热烈欢迎。

运营商其实没有资格拒绝亚马逊。在投入数十亿美元建设超高速、大容量的 5G 无线网络后，移动运营商已经

获得战略竞争优势：随着 Walmart+ 作为 Prime 的低成本替代品的出现，亚马逊面临的竞争日趋激烈。提供无线服务可以作为一个差异化因素，使亚马逊领先于竞争对手并吸引新客户。

利用现有基础设施：亚马逊通过其提供云计算服务的 AWS 部门拥有庞大的基础设施。通过与无线运营商合作，亚马逊可以利用这些基础设施，最大限度地减少昂贵的网络开发成本，加快进军无线市场的步伐。

与苹果公司与 AT&T 的战略比较

要将亚马逊潜在的无线企业与苹果公司与 AT&T 的合作相提并论，我们需要研究一下苹果公司早期的交易及其对市场的影响。

苹果公司的做法与黑莓公司（Blackberry）主导的主流智能手机战略截然不同。黑莓专注于提供一个安全、高效的电子邮件和信息平台，而苹果则设想推出一款能无缝集成多种功能并提供无与伦比的用户体验的设备。苹果成功的关键因素有四个方面。

iPhone 引入了革命性的触控界面，配备大尺寸、鲜艳的显示屏和直观的手势，取代了当时常见的物理键盘和手写笔系统。这简化并增强了用户体验。苹果公司还推出了 App Store，这是一个允许第三方开发者为 iPhone 创建和发布应用程序的平台。这个庞大的应用程序生态系统扩展了设备的功能，吸引了开发者和用户。

与黑莓主要关注生产力功能不同，苹果强调多媒体功能。iPhone 提供集成的 iPod 音乐播放器、强大的网络浏览器和高品质摄像头，吸引了更广泛的消费群体。此外，苹果公司标志性的设计、时尚的外形和统一的品牌形象也使 iPhone 更受青睐。

苹果公司的创新方法颠覆了市场，吸引了消费者的注意力，他们追求的是更多功能、更吸引人的智能手机体验，以及更时尚、更高端的设备。面对 iPhone 的成功，黑莓措手不及，难以迅速适应，导致市场份额下降，最终失去了领导地位。

苹果公司与现在的美国电话电报公司（AT&T）签订独家协议是一项战略举措，使其能够专注于单一运营商，并创造无缝的用户体验。这种做法使苹果公司能够与 AT&T 谈判有利的条款并密切合作，投资数字数据基础设施，为 iPhone 的成功提供支持。有批评者认为，这种合作关系 不慎:

IGR 的分析师 Iain Gillott 推测，用户会对速度较慢的 EDGE 网络感到沮丧，特别是因为一些新的智能手机是通过 HSDPA 或 1xEV-DO 等更高速的网络运行的。"吉洛特说："这对我来说毫无意义。虽然 iPhone 拥有网上冲浪、雅虎电子邮件和其他外观华丽的应用程序，但平均速度在 80 kbps 至 110 kbps 之间的 EDGE 网络连接对于这款本应改变游戏规则的手机来说并不合适。

苹果的补贴策略有助于扩大用户群，并通过每月支付硬件费用提供新的收入。但更重要的是，它帮助 AT&T 筹集了改善边缘网络所需的资金。

如果亚马逊要走类似的道路，它可以选择收购一家无线运营商或投资建设自己的基础设施。这将使亚马逊对网络有更大的控制权，并能提供量身定制的服务，符合其以客户为中心的理念。或者，亚马逊也可以与现有的运营商合作，为他们提供广泛的客户群，并利用他们现有的技术。

对 Prime 和数据计划行业的影响

如果亚马逊实施这一计划，整个行业都会产生连锁反应--亚马逊的大胆举动总是会产生连锁反应。具体情况如下

强化 Prime 会员资格：通过在 Prime 套餐中添加无线服务，亚马逊将进一步将其产品与竞争对手区分开来，从而有可能提高 Prime 会员的增长和保留率。Prime 会员将受益于服务的无缝整合和经济实惠的无线计划，从而提高他们对亚马逊的忠诚度。

颠覆数据计划行业：亚马逊进入无线市场有可能颠覆现有的数据计划行业。通过利用其庞大的客户群，亚马逊可以吸引传统运营商的客户，从而导致老牌运营商的潜在用户流失。针对 Prime 会员推出的低价甚至免费计划可能会极大地改变市场动态和定价结构。

提高运营商的批发收入：虽然亚马逊的进入可能会对传统运营商构成威胁，但也可能为他们带来机遇。作为批发合作伙伴与亚马逊合作将使运营商能够利用亚马逊庞大的客户群，从而有可能从批发交易中获得更多收入。此外，运营商还可以从 5G 网络流量的增加中获益，从而推动其对网络基础设施的投资。

随着亚马逊探索为 Prime 会员推出无线手机计划的可能性，其战略动机也变得清晰可见。通过提升 Prime 会员资格的价值主张和颠覆数据计划行业，亚马逊旨在巩固其在电子商务和娱乐行业的领先地位。借鉴苹果公司与 AT&T 合作的成功经验，亚马逊可以利用类似的战略与客户建立更深层次的联系，并获得竞争优势。

如果亚马逊继续推进其无线计划，很可能会利用其现有的基础设施，与成熟的运营商合作，并利用其庞大的客户群。这将使亚马逊能够为 Prime 会员提供经济实惠的无线套餐，甚至是免费套餐，吸引并留住庞大的用户群，同时有可能颠覆数据套餐行业。

亚马逊可能进军无线市场，这对 Amazon Prime 和数据计划行业都具有重大的战略意义。它可以进一步巩固亚马逊在数字领域的主导地位，提高客户忠诚度和参与度，并有可能扰乱传统运营商的市场份额。随着谈判和讨论的继续，观察市场如何反应以及无线行业如何应对全球最大零售商之一的潜在进入，将是一件耐人寻味的事情。

在所有数字产业中，亚马逊拥有最大的会员基础之一，这一发展有可能紧随黑莓手机的出现和 iPhone 最终对这一领域的颠覆。亚马逊对这一业务的介入可能会进一步巩固 iPhone 的领先地位，也可能会为安卓系统提供数量上的优势，甚至可能为亚马逊重新推出自己的手机（也许是带实体按键的手机，谁知道呢）提供平台。无论如何，运营商都对这一消息感到不安。

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes，美术：Alex Remy 和 Christina Williams

备忘录美国历史最悠久的 CPG 品牌

This brand’s sixth customer was George Washington. Founder Dr. William Hunter’s first invention was orange soda. His second novelty, a bar of soap, rode a wave of interest to colonial prominence thanks to Benjamin Franklin’s introduction of the bubble bath and the requisite tub to America’s privileged.

The passion that I have for American history is well-documented throughout my writings here. But over the previous several months I have taken things up a notch, devouring deep dives by T.J. Stiles and Ron Chernow to include biographies on “Commodore” Vanderbilt, George Washington, Ulysses S. Grant, Alexander Hamilton, JP Morgan, and John D. Rockefeller as if these works were one anthology on the becoming of America. All this time, one brand, commonly used by the men above, was there: pre-revolution, revolution, the constructing of America, the deconstructing of America (by Civil War), its Gilded Age, and onward to the first half of the 20th century.

To be honest, I should have known everything about this brand. According to estimates, it does about $18 million online today through its Shopify site. This number should be far higher given the current emphasis on beauty and grooming and its historical stature. But this isn’t as much about the business itself, it’s about the history of a company that is older than Colgate, Macy’s, Pabst, Brooks Brothers, Citigroup, Dupont, J.P. Morgan Chase, or Cigna.

It was founded in a city that I hold dear (Newport, RI), a place that I shipped off to at 17 years old to unsuccessfully find myself. Just blocks away from where I slept, each night, stood the urban waterfront area that sold Caswell-Massey goods. And people sure bought them; it was used by a few of my most personally-cherished historical figures and even my father-in-law (who introduced the product to me) has been using it for years. As a gift, he left a bar of soap for me. He had to have known that this type of essay would follow.

Caswell-Massey is one of America’s oldest continuously operating companies and a storied beauty and fragrance brand with roots dating back to 1752. How it isn’t one of the most well-marketed and most relevant brands today is beyond my understanding.

The 1700s were foundational years for the retailer and its core products. From its beginnings as Dr. Hunter’s Dispensary, it established a reputation for quality and luxury, setting the stage for its later evolution into a respected and renowned beauty and fragrance brand. As the company grew and developed over the next centuries, it held onto its roots, remaining a trusted name in personal care. Today, the brand’s rich heritage continues to be a central part of its identity. Want an example of its legacy? Maybe famed playwright Lin Manuel-Miranda kept a bar of Caswell soap on stage for good luck.

Well ahead of its time, the original Rhode Island shop offered a range of remedies, personal care items, and even scented waters that were considered early forms of cologne. During the late 1700s, the store’s clientele included members of high society, as Newport was a popular summer destination for the wealthy. The product line included items like Dr. Hunter’s Original Number Six, a fragrance named after London’s famous Number Six Store, where it was sold.

This particular fragrance was later famously used by General and first President George Washington. In 1790, George Washington gave the Marquis de Lafayette a full supply of Dr. Hunter’s Original Number Six Cologne to show his gratitude for aiding his strained Revolutionary Army. In 1826, after finally earning his freedom from captivity in France, the Marquis de Lafayette returned to Rhode Island and bought boxes and boxes of Number Six.

Toward the end of the 18th century, the apothecary began transitioning towards more beauty-centric products. While it still offered health-related products and remedies, Dr. Hunter’s Dispensary increasingly began to carry items like perfumes and soaps, paving the way for its future status as a premier beauty and fragrance brand. It was a pharmacy selling remedies and personal care items.

Over the years, the company changed hands several times. In 1861, it was acquired (for the first time) by an employee, John Rose Caswell, who renamed the company to “Caswell-Massey” when he partnered with New York businessman William Massey in the 1870s. During this time, the brand gained fame for its luxury products, including fragrances, soaps, and grooming essentials. Caswell-Massey became known for its iconic products. For instance, their almond cold cream soap, first introduced in the early 20th century, remains a best-seller today. The brand was also patronized by several U.S. presidents beyond America’s first Commander and Chief. Even JFK was fond of their “Jockey Club” scent. If the brand had its own Mt. Rushmore, here is the proverbial Mount Rushmore of the products’ biggest fans:

George Washington: The first President of the United States; He is said to have been a fan of the brand’s “Number Six” fragrance, a blend of citrus and rosemary with 27 secret aromatics. The Number Six fragrance was formulated in 1780, and it remains a beloved product in the company’s lineup.

John F. Kennedy: The 35th U.S. President also had a fondness for Caswell-Massey’s products. He particularly liked the “Jockey Club” scent, which was considered the first “sport” scent in America. Jockey Club remains a favorite among the Caswell-Massey offerings today.

Jacqueline Onassis: The matriarch of Camelot and the devoted wife to John F. Kennedy loved buying avocado oil from the retailer.

Dwight D. Eisenhower: The 34th U.S. President; he reportedly loved the “Tricorn” cologne, a captivating and elegant fragrance with notes of citrus, sandalwood, and musk.

The Astor Family: The Astor family, one of the wealthiest and most influential families in the United States in the 19th and early 20th centuries, were also patrons of Caswell-Massey. The family had a particular affinity for Caswell-Massey’s bath soaps.

In the 21st century, the brand experienced another rebirth. Under new ownership, Caswell-Massey has focused on upholding its historic legacy while modernizing to fit contemporary tastes. The brand reintroduced classic products, revamped its packaging, and committed to using clean, sustainable ingredients. Today, the company continues to manufacture a broad range of personal care products and is still recognized as a legacy in the American beauty industry.

In an era where consumers value authenticity, history, and quality, Caswell-Massey holds a unique advantage with its rich heritage and legacy of superior products. However, to address more of the market, the brand must adapt.

Digitally-native strategies: Caswell-Massey must harness digital marketing and eCommerce effectively. By telling their story through engaging content on social media platforms, they can reach a younger, digitally-native audience. Leveraging influencer partnerships could also help introduce the brand to new consumers.

Environmental standards: Sustainability and clean ingredients are paramount for modern consumers. Caswell-Massey should continue emphasizing and communicating its commitment to eco-friendly practices and natural ingredients.

Product-led marketing: Caswell-Massey should consider limited edition releases or collaborations, possibly inspired by their historical connections. Unique product offerings that tap into nostalgia while offering contemporary appeal can create buzz and rekindle interest in the brand.

By blending the old with the new and leveraging their historical strength, Caswell-Massey can heighten its relevance and continue to appeal to the discerning, modern customer who values quality, authenticity, and sustainability. Its history reflects the evolving landscape of the American beauty industry over the last three centuries. Its resilience and ability to adapt are central to its long-lasting success and enduring legacy.

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes，美术：Alex Remy