备忘录时尚未来的四大趋势

When you think of Vuori, Psycho Bunny, Faherty, Johnnie-O, and Bombas, you think of their rare growth trajectories. None of the brands were first-movers; they each had stiff competition form incumbent retail brands and better-positioned DTCs. But something set them apart from the rest. Here’s an example of how many of these brands work against the typical best practices associated with the segment:

Tucked away in suburban Ohio, a small boutique features a number of brands, none of which are native to the midwest. One trip around the Trevor Furbay boutique in Dublin and you’ll find Faherty, Johnnie-O, and Vuori among others. For smaller formatted stores like this one, it’s rarer to find modern brands of the caliber of those mentioned. For the brands, this type of distribution is a lot of work for relatively little revenue. To a brand of Vuori’s size, this could seem like a waste of time and energy. But for brands like these, who’ve excelled in the art of finding customers where they are, there is no such thing as an account too big or one too small.

These brands are not just popular; they are reshaping what high-performance retail looks like. With their own unique stories and approaches to business, they are rewriting the rules of success for retailers across the globe. Let’s delve deeper. In a recent deep dive by Women’s Wear Daily, the report explained the characteristics that other DTC brands can replicate for their own success. WWD explains the difficulty in achieving what these brand have:

But there are brands that have managed to break that cycle and build highly profitable businesses. In menswear, some of the most impressive include Vuori, Psycho Bunny, Faherty, Johnnie-O and Bombas. Although they service different parts of the market — everything from socks and activewear to polos and beachy button-downs — they have managed to navigate through the potential pitfalls to build multimillion-dollar businesses.

Their stories emphasize the importance of authenticity, quality, social responsibility, and community engagement – trends that are shaping the future of the retail industry.

In an increasingly competitive market, staying true to a brand’s ethos while adapting to market shifts is as difficult as it is crucial. As these brands demonstrate, remaining customer-focused and delivering high-quality products can drive significant growth. Upcoming retailers and DTC brands looking to replicate this success should focus on these aspects: offering unique, quality products, demonstrating social responsibility, fostering a strong brand community, and perfecting channel mix.

This could not come at a better time as fashion retail is poised for a leap in volume of sales for 2023. It’s never been more important to be build close relationships with consumers as competition grows between competitive brands.

Seeing those brands prioritize a small but potentially influential local retailer got me thinking about how each of these companies did so well to build brands with loyal followings, appropriate amounts of inventory, reach, and profitable growth. Here are the top four characteristics shared by each of these retailers.

Trend: Prioritize Product Quality and Innovation

Product reigns supreme in these companies. If you’ve shopped any of them, this is evident. They understand the three Ps of business: Product, Product, and Product. Bombas, a sock company that also deals in other basics, has taken the ‘product-first’ strategy to heart. They prioritize the quality and the utility of their products and you can tell when you wear them. Faherty, an East Coast-based family business, also follows this principle. They deliver products with an East Coast beach flavor made from sustainably sourced materials. The key to their success has been their dedication to creating exceptional products that are both durable enough, appealing, and readily available to consumers.

Vuori was a fitness brand born out of necessity, and another exemplar of this strategy. In “Size Charts, Returns, and EBITDA,” I explained:

Over the course of the pandemic, Vuori became one of the fastest-growing modern brands in the fashion retail space. When the retailer landed its $400 million Softbank investment (at a $4 billion valuation) in 2021, I admittedly didn’t understand the buzz. Then I bought my first pair of joggers from them around a year later. REI, one of Vuori’s top wholesale partners, made it easy. A section of the store is devoted to the brand and an REI associate is frequently stationed within the shop to answer any questions. I was an immediate fan.

Vuori offered an innovative solution to a lack of appealing athletic wear, leading to its exponential growth.

Trend: Craft a Distinct Brand Story and Culture

These standout brands don’t just deliver great products; they also built compelling stories and cultures around their brands. As CEO Dave Gatto of Johnnie-O said, “a brand is a living organism, more than just a logo or a name.” A successful company must create a culture that reflects its brand ethos.

Psycho Bunny turned the challenges it faced in its early years into an inspiring success story. This excerpt begins the narrative that laid the groundwork for the company’s present day stature:

But around 2013, things began to unravel and Psycho Bunny experienced operational issues and internal struggles. Enter Alen Brandman to the rescue.

In 2021, Brandman became the brand’s majority owner. Similarly, Bombas’ advertising campaign Compassion = Change was a powerful expression of its brand story. This campaign was instrumental in spreading awareness about homelessness and promoting a more compassionate approach towards this issue. And, Faherty had a strong human capital ethos that shaped its culture and had consistently been a part of its brand story over the past decade.

Trend: Understand Your Customer and Their Needs

These successful DTC retailers understood their customers and their needs better than anyone else. Johnnie-O’s focus on ‘West Coast prep’ resonated with its target market. Bombas’ approach to addressing the issue of homelessness through its business model appealed to its consumers’ sense of social responsibility. Vuori and Faherty too, with their unique, high-quality wears, understood and catered to the needs of their respective target markets. This quote by Brandman was pretty solid:

Men especially are strange creatures. Some men have the same type of underwear for 12 years. Some men have the same T-shirt for 10 years, so you need to make sure those core fundamentals are treated with great respect to ensure people are going to come back. And we’re not going to do anything to breach that trust.

These brands are not just selling products; they are partnering with their consumers, selling a lifestyle and fostering loyalty to an identity that their customers could connect with.

Trend: Leverage Multiple Channels for Distribution and Growth

This is the key trend, in my opinion. And it goes back to the second paragraph: several of these brands saw value in working with a small store that would barely move the needle from a sales volume standpoint. Each of these brands recognized the importance of multiple distribution channels to their growth. While direct-to-consumer retail was a crucial part of their success, they also understood the value of physical retail spaces and wholesale partnerships.

Faherty, for example, has a significant brick-and-mortar presence and operates 52 stores around the US. Psycho Bunny, despite facing internal struggles and operational issues in the past, managed to bounce back and is currently present in over 70 retail locations across North America. Vuori has followed a similar path, starting out as a direct-to-consumer brand, and then branching out into wholesale. Their strategy shows how a multi-channel approach can help a brand expand its reach and tap into different customer segments.

The success stories of these high-performing DTC brands offer a road map for other retailers. By focusing on product quality, crafting a compelling brand story, understanding the customer, and leveraging multiple channels for distribution, a retailer can replicate their success. But in the end, the internet remains the center of the wheel for these retailers. Vuori founder Joe Kudla:

There’s so much to learn about navigating different cultures and consumer preferences, but that’s the stuff I view as fun. The real challenges were raising money and getting our product marketing and fit correct. Two years in, I thought we were going to run out of money so I thank my lucky stars for the internet and being able to sell online.

These brands have shown that it’s possible to carve out a niche in the market by taking lessons from DTC’s past and challenging the status quo. As the retail landscape continues to evolve, the lessons from these trailblazing brands will remain relevant, guiding the way for future DTC success stories.

Emulating these brands doesn’t require massive investment or out-of-the-box thinking, but instead a dedication to quality, community, and authenticity. It’s a testament to the potential of retail done right, proof that in an industry often seen as challenging and unpredictable, success is achievable when businesses stay true to their values and put the customer first.

作者:Web Smith | 编辑:Hilary Milnes,美术:Alex Remy 和 Christina Williams 

备忘录退货政变

The eCommerce industry is a dance between partners, economic conditions, and balance sheets. Affirm, Shopify, Deliverr, Flexport, Returnly, and Loop have all had their moments on the dance floor this year – each striving to perfect their routine while keeping pace with the rhythm of market dynamics, consumer behavior, and technological progress. But of them all, Shopify is the key benefactor; Loop is the latest beneficiary. Effectively acquiring the chief competitor while bolstering its relationships with two of the most important software platforms in all of commerce.

It’s all one big give and take. Shopify’s divestment of its Deliverr investment may see Flexport benefit over the longterm. Shopify and Flexport deepened their alliance as a result.

Shopify and Flexport are deepening their alliance as Shopify seeks to compete with e-commerce rivals such as Amazon and Walmart. The companies announced a partnership in February that gives Shopify merchants access to Flexport’s freight services, including booking international shipments from suppliers to their warehouses. Flexport also counts Shopify as an investor.

Then, last week, it was publicly announced that Loop did a deal of a lifetime. In what was essentially an acquisition of Returnly, CEO Jon Poma structured a deal that may send a large number of Returnly’s clients from Affirm to Loop in exchange for Loop stock to Affirm (though this agreement is a partnership and not a bonafide acquisition). In line with what was explained above, Affirm counts Shopify as an investor. Loop also counts Shopify as an investor.

Amidst this symphony, the returns segment of the industry has often been offbeat, posing significant challenges to both consumers and retailers. The ‘return to sender’ card was held by as much as 16.5% of overall sales in the past year, tallying up to an imposing $800 billion-plus in return value according to Wayne Pommen, Affirm’s Chief Financial Officer. But as any seasoned dancer would know, to evolve, sometimes, you need to learn new steps. Reflecting this ethos, Affirm and Loop Returns have choreographed a strategic partnership that will nearly double Loop’s business and remove a competitor, all while improving Shopify’s position in a two-fold manner.

Returnly’s clients partnering with the long-time Shopify loyal, Loop Returns, means more ecosystem lock-in and a surer bet from its equity position from its 2021 investment into Loop.

While Shopify was investing in Loop’s Series B, Affirm and Returnly partnered for a tango of their own. Acquiring Returnly was Affirm’s response to the incessant growth of returns and an attempt to streamline the industry. The data reflected in this essay’s title card can begin to explain why Affirm was motivated to enter the returns business. Returns revenues boomed in 2021.

Returnly, with its self-service online returns experience, catered to more than 8 million shoppers, swaying to the beat of returns and exchanges. Yet, two years later, influenced by the increasing importance of core profitability, Affirm decided to change both its dance and its partner. Divesting Returnly, Affirm moved in tune with Shopify’s previous divestment from its logistics business, underlining a trend of letting specialized partners lead in non-core operations.

Ironically, Loop Returns, a company now nurtured with investments from both Affirm and Shopify, emerged as the beneficiary of these strategic divestments. Loop, with its commitment to making returns a more harmonious dance for businesses and customers, struck the right chord. It provided the perfect rhythm for more than 2,200 merchants, enabling them to reduce refunds and retain more revenue according to Pommen (not to be confused with Poma). Affirm’s new dance partner will prove to be a harmonious fit. The timing of the transition couldn’t have been better.

Loop’s CEO, Jonathan Poma, described the partnership as a grand assembly of industry leaders, sharing the common goal of orchestrating better returns for businesses and customers. Poma said merchants moving from Returnly to Loop “will be joining brands such as Princess Polly, Allbirds and Tecovas who continue to trust Loop to manage their returns. Joining Loop’s platform will positively impact your business by delivering meaningful cost savings — from reducing refunds to optimizing your reverse logistics processes.”

With Affirm passing the baton of Returnly to Loop, it enables the latter to optimize the returns experience for an additional 1,500-plus merchants. For these merchants, joining Loop’s platform holds the promise of transforming their returns process from a frenzied jig into a well-orchestrated waltz, with cost savings, enhanced operational efficiency, and a seamless customer experience.

As PYMNTS recently reported, Affirm’s acquisition of Returnly for $300 million in cash and equity occurred at a time when the eCommerce dance floor was more crowded than ever; the pandemic, hungry investors, and a quickening pace of adoption all influenced the all-cash deal and 10x return to Returnly’s venture capitalists. But as the music (ahem, economy) slowed, Affirm decided to refocus on its core operations, a move that echoes the strategic decisions of other key players in the eCommerce sector. Affirm’s CFO said it best:

This partnership with Loop and the divestiture of the Returnly business will allow Affirm to take an even deeper focus on driving strong growth and profitability in our core business, serving our merchant and platform partners with world-class payments and technology solutions, accelerating our direct-to-consumer offerings, and building on our deep capabilities in underwriting and decisioning.

Translation: Affirm needs to capture as much of this growth as possible to remain a viable BNPL business:

As this grand dance progresses, the trend is evident. eCommerce industrialists are recognizing the value of forming equity-based, strategic partnerships to address non-core operations, allowing them to concentrate on perfecting their signature moves. The strategic decisions of Affirm and Shopify to divest from non-core operations and engage Loop Returns in managing the returns process mark a significant shift in the eCommerce industry. In many ways, Loop executed the perfect coup.

By setting new trends and orchestrating new, long-term partnerships, these companies are poised to redefine the eCommerce landscape and its financing mechanisms. As Shopify, Affirm, and Loop continues to improvise and innovate, the dance of eCommerce is set to reflect improved efficiency, enhanced customer satisfaction, and increased profitability. It’s a dance where everyone is learning, adapting, and, above all, evolving.

作者:Web Smith | 编辑:Hilary Milnes,美术:Alex Remy 和 Christina Williams

备忘录:食品杂货的未来 (2053)

杂货业的未来正处于十字路口。财政保守主义、技术进步、劳动力短缺以及消费者偏好的转变将在未来 30 年间极大地影响杂货业的格局。本文将探讨这些影响因素,并提出行业战略路线图。根据全球数据科学公司 Dunnhumby 最近提供的数据,有一个显著的变化将影响本报告的其他部分。在过去十年中,送货速度和整体便利性是许多购买决策的核心。如今,价格和促销可能会让电子商务时代的好处黯然失色。摘自 Dunnhumby 的详尽报告:

2022 年,人们只关心如何以合适的价格找到合适的产品,而不关心如何节省时间。在我们的模式中,"价格、促销和奖励 "一直是最重要的需求,在过去 100 多年的大部分时间里,它很可能一直是最重要的客户需求。孰胜孰败的故事也反映了消费者对更优惠价格的贪得无厌。

与其他行业一样,食品杂货业也难逃变革的浪潮。实际上,我认为它是其他行业可能遇到的变化的先行指标。从经济问题、代际行为的影响到技术进步,该行业正面临着多方面的转型浪潮。Retail Dive 最近发布了 Dunnhumby 的报告《2053 年的食品杂货业:数据驱动的未来视角》,该报告提供了具有洞察力的数据,揭示了未来三十年影响食品杂货消费的复杂层面。通过分析这些影响因素,我们可以预测未来 30 年杂货业的形态。Retail Dive》摘要提供了诸如此类的真知灼见:

Dunnhumby 认为,Harris Teeter、Wegmans、Publix 和 Sprouts Farmers Market 是未来 30 年市场份额最容易受到财政保守主义影响的零售商。总体而言,亚马逊、H-E-B、好市多、山姆会员店和沃尔玛最能把握从现在到 2053 年的趋势,邓洪比预计届时美国食品杂货零售业的销售额将达到 1.9 万亿美元,是现在的两倍多。

行业演变的核心是财政保守主义的脉搏,消费者对经济前景的担忧推动了财政保守主义的重新崛起。Dunnhumby 对 70,000 多份问卷进行的广泛调查显示,无论收入如何,价格仍然是购买食品杂货的决定性因素。Y世代和Z世代受经济大衰退和Covid-19大流行病的影响更深,他们对经济问题的关注度也更高。对于收入较高的购物者来说,健康和可持续发展是与成本竞争的主要压力因素,而对于 60% 寻求更健康食品选择的消费者来说,成本则是主要障碍。

这种财政保守主义预计将持续到 2053 年,预示着市场将转向以价值为导向的零售商。摘自 Dunnhumby 的执行摘要:

从现在起到 2053 年,我们将看到零售商做出更多努力:提供食品杂货自助预算人工智能,成为客户值得信赖的金融合作伙伴,并推出自己的私人品牌专属未来省钱模式。

亚马逊、H-E-B、好市多、山姆会员店和沃尔玛将从这一趋势中获益,而 Harris Teeter、Wegmans、Trader Joe's、Publix、Sprouts Farmers Market 和其他更高端商店的市场份额可能面临挑战。这并不意味着高端和特色杂货店的灭顶之灾,但它确实需要战略性的店铺选址、产品差异化和客户体验的提升,才能茁壮成长。

技术变革将极大地影响我们制造和交付产品的方式。我认为这有时有些牵强,但还是有必要认识到这一点。邓洪比的 "走向消费者"(Go-To-Consumer)战略表明,3D 食品打印、合成生物学、基因编辑和生物工程将带来一场潜在的革命。这些技术将带来更可持续、更高效的价值链,价值达 720 亿美元。无人机送货在价值 2,360 亿美元的移动技术市场的支持下可能成为常态,从而消除商品滞留港口等干扰风险。

报告还提到,先进的连接、量子计算、人工智能、机器学习和无代码下一代软件开发(总价值达 3360 亿美元)有望为下一阶段的消费者洞察提供动力。计划将这些技术整合到其垂直链和客户体验战略中的零售商可以利用深刻的洞察力,并脱颖而出。

在数据隐私和减少物流浪费的重要性不断提高的推动下,数字革命标志着客户参与的新领域。公司有望在 Web3 领域占据一席之地,该领域的估值高达 1100 亿美元,反映出数字世界正朝着更加分散和用户赋能的方向转变。而我们在此广泛报道的人工智能生成技术为杂货零售商提供了积极参与人工智能开发、审核和监管的机会,从而实现人工智能辅助杂货和商业。

虚拟现实和元宇宙的出现将重新定义消费者参与。随着苹果等公司将赌注押在混合现实头盔上,杂货商跟上这些技术创新的步伐是明智之举,即使它们还处于早期阶段。我认为,这insight was pretty valuable:

Although the metaverse has diminished in importance in the new-tech hype cycle, its steady evolution over the last two decades suggests that it may reappear in a future horizon. The question is, just how soon will we get to that future? Apple’s recent announcement of a state-of-the-art mixed-reality headset is a strong indication that the technology world is still betting on the metaverse. Our position is that the metaverse is here, but still in the very early stages of adoption. It would be wise for grocers to keep track of all the innovation.

But back to physical reality. Labor shortages, another consequence of the pandemic, are a persisting challenge. Solutions lie in continued investments in AI and automation for unfilled jobs and in initiatives like the Kroger tuition program, Giant Food stores scholarships, Publix tuition reimbursement, and Walmart’s $5 billion upskilling initiative, which exemplify investments in education, skills training, credentialing, and employment frameworks. Amazon has its own upskilling program – 10 to be exact.

Career Choice—one of Amazon’s 10 项技能提升计划为 75 万名符合条件的一线工人提供了从英语作为第二语言课程到四年制大学学位的教育机会。如果他们离开公司,也没有还款条款。到目前为止,"职业选择 "计划共有 400 门课程、300 所学院和 13 万名参与者,是亚马逊规模最大的技能提升计划。2021 年 9 月,这家零售巨头承诺到 2025 年将投资 12 亿美元用于 Career Choice 和其他技能提升项目。

亚马逊的项目通过课程完成率和毕业后就业率这两项指标来衡量成功与否。目标是:留住人才并进行再投资。在每种情况下,这些技能提升战略都反映了这样一种意识,即行业正在一波一波地快速变化。因此,食品杂货行业需要一项全面的战略来驾驭这些浪潮。在短期内,零售商可以继续在最重要的地方帮助客户省钱,与供应商制定协议或接受价格上涨,并通过清晰的沟通让客户放心,以减轻通货膨胀等影响。

从长远来看,有必要采取更具远见的方法。零售商可以考虑开发由人工智能驱动的食品杂货预算工具,转变为客户值得信赖的金融合作伙伴,甚至推出未来的私人品牌专卖店模式。这些战略可以让杂货企业更好地满足客户需求,同时充分利用影响行业发展的各种力量。

技术在这场变革中的作用是不可避免的。人工智能和下一代软件开发有可能彻底改变食品杂货业的经营方式以及与顾客的互动方式。利用这些技术,再加上对数据驱动型洞察力的专注,将使零售商能够提供全面整合的客户体验,并在激烈的市场竞争中保持领先地位。食品杂货零售商必须积极参与人工智能辅助食品杂货商务的开发和监管。

随着杂货业步入元世界,其与顾客互动的方式也将发生巨大变化。传统的实体杂货店购物可能会被身临其境的虚拟体验所补充,甚至在某些情况下被取代。这些平台的成功导航和采用将决定杂货零售商未来的成功。

摘要

我认为,归根结底还是要以人为本。对教育、技能培训和员工发展的投资不仅能帮助零售商解决这一问题,还能作为一种强有力的营销策略。通过将自己塑造成致力于员工福利和发展的认真负责的雇主,零售商可以在拥挤的市场中脱颖而出。

未来几十年,杂货业将经历一场深刻的变革。在经济忧虑和技术进步的背景下,该行业必须进行调整,以更好地服务于客户。财政保守、技术突破、劳动力短缺和数字革命都是杂货业未来发展的要素。那些能够有效融合这些要素,同时不断创新以满足客户需求的零售商,将在 2053 年及以后继续茁壮成长。因此,食品杂货业的发展取决于其将挑战转化为机遇的能力,以确保它在未来几代人的生活中始终占据核心地位。

杂货零售商的目标将是把购买便利性与对未来 30 年定价压力的认识结合起来。人力资源、数据科学和现有技术的应用将决定哪些零售商能够做到这一点。

作者:Web Smith | 编辑:Hilary Milnes,美术:Alex Remy 和 Christina Williams