成员简介：全渠道涅槃

双方都在寻求全渠道的涅槃。

耐克公司专注于其直接面向消费者的战略，在这一过程中伤害了百货商店和专卖店，而 Allbirds 则与批发商亲密合作。在考虑品牌知名度和单位经济效益的全渠道战略中，这是一个有趣的悖论。拥有销售速度和地位的品牌可以并将会转向自有商店/DTC 模式。努力实现盈利并扩大规模的品牌则转向第三方零售批发合作。

一个循环似乎正在形成：通过与批发商合作达到临界质量的数字原生品牌和传统品牌，最终可能会放弃数字优先战略。

这只是 DTC 玩法脆弱状态的又一个迹象，也是当前影响零售业的宏观趋势。自发布以来的短短一周内，本周二下午 2 点前概述的两个关键商务趋势及其连锁反应开始实时上演。摘自数字商务全球峰会演讲：

实体到数字：零售商从第三方零售商撤出

对于各种规模和地位的品牌来说，一个主要的战略是有意识地精心创建一个批发网络，以便控制库存和建立合作伙伴关系，而不是像过去几代人那样采用喷洒和喷洒的零售方式。随着品牌专注于自有渠道，第三方零售商所扮演的角色将越来越小，也将与以往不同。这就是一个很好的例子：到 2027 年，耐克的直销比例将达到 70%。

从数字到实体：DNVB 正在开放自有购物体验

对于网络品牌来说，扩张正在店铺层面进行。实体店提升了品牌的网络光环，如果做得好，还能赚钱。风险在于避免过度零售。随着这种扩张，商场也将按照 DTC 的形象进行改造。

Allbirds 本周的财报显示，该公司需要重新考虑其实体店和批发战略。据 CNBC 报道，该品牌公布的成本增加侵蚀了利润，导致股价下跌。开设零售店是一项主要支出。为了收回销售额，Allbirds 表示将通过第三方零售商进行销售，并指定 Nordstrom 为其批发合作伙伴。WWD 最近的一篇文章对此作了解释：

Zwillinger 说，公司将主要在美国和少数欧洲零售商中开展批发业务，未来还计划在亚洲开设分店。他说，这些商店将无法获得 Allbirds 的全部产品，只能选择最适合其细分市场的产品。Zwillinger 说，为了保持 Allbirds 过去五年来一直保持的定价完整性，他们在促销时销售的产品将受到限制。

为了回归其 DTC 根源，Allbirds 需要发展业务，建立更强大的品牌资产，同时保持首席执行官 Joey Zwillinger 在对 WWD 的评论中提到的单位经济效益（定价完整性）。耐克拥有长达几十年的优势，这种比较并不公平，但这种逆转正是耐克目前重建分销模式的方式。据 NPD 集团称，耐克与阿迪达斯和斯凯奇一样，都是自己最好的零售渠道。

耐克的直接零售战略庞大而细致，将商店概念、游戏、应用程序和 Web 3.0 都考虑在内。耐克计划在每一次互动中都拥有顾客，这对依赖耐克的零售商造成了伤害。鞋业新闻》（Footwear News）援引了耐克总部整合分销的紧迫性：

对于耐克来说，积极的 DTC 战略导致该品牌终止了与 Zappos、Dillard's、DSW、Urban Outfitters、Shoe Show 等零售商的批发账户，使许多零售商无法在店内销售最受欢迎的品牌之一。耐克还削减了在现有供应商（如 Foot Locker）的产品数量，以巩固分销。

由于失去了耐克的部分门店，Foot Locker 公司报告的前景黯淡，股价下跌。而其他零售商，如 DSW、Urban Outfitters 和 Shoe Show，在耐克离开的消息传出后也面临着类似的市场压力。在品牌经历自身周期的同时，依靠品牌的商店也在经历自身的复兴。对大多数人来说，这既不是厄运，也不是阴霾。

如果我的假设是正确的，那么最大、最成熟的零售商留下的全渠道空白将由Allbirds和NOBULL这样的新兴现代品牌来填补。5年、10年或20年后，这些现代品牌可能会写下同样的故事，来展望自己的未来--这就是品牌、实体零售商和不断发展的分销战略之间共生关系的新形态。

一方面：盈利的传统企业品牌因放弃批发而转向 DTC 而成为新闻焦点。另一端：尚未盈利的数字原生品牌则因转向百货公司批发以寻求利润和规模而成为新闻焦点。

它们都在努力实现全渠道的涅槃。

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes，美术：Christina Williams

备忘录2PM 数字商务演示

虽然 DNVB 的大部分特征构成没有变化，但背景却发生了翻天覆地的变化。新的宏观经济趋势和市场力量正在影响着DTC行业，而DTC行业也在影响着旧世界。2PM 的报道和分析实时密切关注这些趋势；值得回过头来评估一下未来零售、Web3、供应链、隐私、房地产以及元宇宙内部所有权理念的整体前景。

在为德勤数字公司（Deloitte Digital）所做的介绍中，2PM 概述了八个具有前瞻性的想法。

实体到数字：零售商正在撤出第三方零售商[1] 

对于各种规模和地位的品牌来说，一个主要的战略是有意识地精心创建一个批发网络，以便控制库存和建立合作伙伴关系，而不是像过去几代人那样采用喷洒和喷洒的零售方式。随着品牌专注于自有渠道，第三方零售商所扮演的角色将越来越小，也将与以往不同。这就是一个很好的例子：到 2027 年，耐克的直销比例将达到 70%。

数字到实体：DNVB 正在开放自有购物体验[2]

对于网络品牌来说，扩张正在店铺层面进行。实体店提升了品牌的网络光环，如果做得好，还能赚钱。风险在于避免过度零售。随着这种扩张，商场也将按照 DTC 的形象进行改造。

广告业的变化苹果隐私更新将产生持久影响[3］

第一方数据将决定下一波广告和销售浪潮。品牌和平台现在正努力适应苹果的隐私更新，而谷歌也计划对安卓系统进行类似的改变。苹果将挑战 Meta 和谷歌作为主要广告平台的地位。再加上一键购买，苹果的主导地位不难想象。值得关注的还有gCommerce 的崛起和 QR 码的持续盛行。

CAC 持续上升，内容合作伙伴关系对物业变得更加重要[4]

影响广告策略的变化不止苹果一家。客户获取成本越来越高。除了对第一方数据的重视，内容合作也将成为广告主未来的关键战略。这种合作关系将超越合作关系，品牌将收购媒体属性，以获得对产品需求和社区的洞察。

在美国采用 eCom 之前，近距离支付就已开始增长[5] 。

目前，美国的移动支付采用率在全球排名第八。这将是美国科技界的下一场军备竞赛，各家公司将争相成为最大的移动支付运营商。预测：到 2027 年，美国的电子通信普及率将达到 30%。

空运、集装箱船和自有链[6]

在过去两年里，供应链中断重塑了零售业。最大的零售商将采取行动，确保自己不再受制于无法控制的力量，因为他们有资源拥有自己的供应链。预计亚马逊、塔吉特和沃尔玛将收购更多的供应链促进者。这可能会使小品牌更加听命于大零售商。

商场将促进电子商贸退货，以带动人流[7]

五年后商场的目的是什么？关注零售商最大的痛点：网上退货。美国的购物中心正陷入困境，有了这么多额外的零售空间，更多的购物中心将变成逆向物流中心，以帮助品牌减轻在线退货的成本。

Web3和DTC，区块链上的零售[8]

到 2027 年，零售商在虚拟世界的投入将与在实体世界的投入相当。Web3 可以帮助品牌建立新时代的忠诚度计划和社区，同时创造一个与创造更多实体商品无关的收入来源。请关注耐克和星巴克的发展方向。

就在这里。订阅者可获得 PDF 文件，只需回复订阅者电子邮件，我将亲自发送：

作者：韦伯-史密斯、希拉里-米尔恩斯、克里斯蒂娜-威廉姆斯和亚历克斯-雷米

备忘录空运

According to Insider’s Intelligence service, US retail e-commerce sales will grow 16.1% this year, exceeding $1 trillion for the first time. Internationally, eCommerce will reach $5 trillion in GMV this year, according to the same source. And it is projected to grow to $6 trillion by 2024.

That’s a lot of oceanic freight forwarding.

Prior to the pandemic, supply chain and logistics management were afterthoughts. In 2022, managing production and logistics cycles has become as critical as marketing and advertising. These were afterthoughts until they were not.

Over the past two years, we have witnessed disruption after disruption. A shipping canal blocked, union employees standing down en masse, the U.S. postal service slowing to a halt, an international bridge protested by truckers, and a container ship on fire with 4,000 vehicles. Over this time period, freight forwarding has increased 500% in costs, retailers have begun to acquire trucking and container resources. Shopify has invested and divested in warehouse management, and Amazon has become the number one buyer of commercial real estate.

Companies like Maersk have pursued acquisitions to manage logistics beyond the ocean. Earlier this month, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S agreed to buy Pilot Freight Services LLC for $1.68 billion. Maersk felt that it was important to shore up its road-transport business. But more importantly, it signaled that the container shipment boom may be starting to fade.

One method that has yet to fade is air freight. In a September report on freight, 2PM explained:

The complexity of the supply chain has been complicated by labor shortages and other misallocations. The short-term solution may resemble the world’s largest retailers following the supply chain management techniques pioneered by companies like L Brands. But this is only a mitigation effort. Amazon Air flight activity has increased 17% between February and August 2021 after the company added 14 planes, including two that enable intra-Canadian operations. In addition to these 14 planes, Amazon uses up to 20-30 partner flights per day to ship goods from hub to hub according to a recent document: Blue Skies for Amazon Air.

Seko Logistics Chief Growth Officer Brian Bourke recently joined Yahoo Finance (full interview) and provided some insight into this shift. He explained that SEKO chartered 70 times in 2020, 400 in 2021, and will likely surpass 500 chartered flights in 2020.

The use of air freight is increasing due to increased volatility, geopolitical tensions, and global supply chain disruption. In February, Flexport announced a $935 million Series E raise that included the likes of A16Z and Shopify. CEO Ryan Petersen has been at the forefront, helping many who have limited insight into the logistics industry to understand its shortcomings. Petersen announced the raise with this quote:

The global pandemic and the pressure it put on global supply chains has made the transportation of goods — something many people took for granted — a daily pain point. This investment signals that the market recognizes the need for a tech-enabled logistics ecosystem that has the visibility and resilience to handle unexpected challenges of any scale.

One of the most exciting companies is commerce is one that is behind the scenes. Flexport is increasing its air freight capacity as ocean freight continues to cause headaches for retailers, large and small.

This week, Flexport, a freight forwarder, announced it signed a deal with Eastern Airlines to deploy air freight planes, filling a gap in current capacity with a focus on eCommerce shipments. The deal is designed to make the use of Eastern Airlines’ air freighters low cost and quick to deploy, a positioning that would benefit direct-to-consumer and small-to-medium online brands. The Eastern Airlines freighters will make trips between Hong Kong and Chicago and Vietnam and Chicago.

Flexport is actively looking to fill a void in air freight availability to help companies sidestep bottlenecks in other modes of transportation. In an interview with Freight Waves, Eastern CEO Stephen Harfst and Flexport CEO Neel Jones Shah explained the benefits of the deal for the current landscape:

Eastern CEO Stephen Harfst said the plane is designed around e-commerce flows. “We’re not selling weight. Our aircraft provides volume. If you have e-commerce driven goods that are 5 to 7 pounds per cubic foot, the aircraft has structural payload to fill that volume up so why spend all the time, effort and money to redesign and rebuild the airplane,” he said.

Shah went on to note that air freight demand has doubled during a time when capacity has remained around 10% of pre-pandemic levels. He expects Flexport’s volume to double in 2022. While air freight will never become a substitute for oceanic shipping, Flexport is helping certain retailers move the equivalent of three containers worth of inventory in hours instead of weeks, that is as long as the products are 5-7 pounds per cubic foot.

Last week, Flexport signed a nonbinding letter of intent to purchase up to three robot cargo jets designed to carry a 100-ton payload, a move that fits a company built on a culture of innovation that combines logistics execution with a tech-enabled platform executives envision as the operating system for global trade that can improve the customer experience.

For an apparel retailer, supplement company, or toy maker, receiving goods from the manufacturer within 24 hours can be worth the cost. Shipping expenses and global labor shortages are two of the foremost contributors to inflation. Shipping costs have caused issues for retailers, with no exception to category. Companies like Under Armour, Volkswagen, Nike, and Hasbro have experienced many of the same headaches and consumers are paying for it. The U.S. is experiencing the worst inflation in four decades.

In the Port of Los Angeles, container ships are waiting an average of 18 days to unload. While this is the smallest that the shipping backup has been since early November, it is important to remember that it was rare that ships waited for even one day prior to the pandemic.

Air freight will not single-handedly relieve inflation concerns. Shortages are expected to ease by the end of Q1 and business inventories were 2.1% higher in December than the prior month, a gain that the WJ noted was the biggest since 1992. Inflation remains unchanged and suppliers continue to maintain higher prices and the consumer is left to account for this. While trans-pacific shipping has finally begun to return to its pre-pandemic form, waiting times have not. And air freight is but one of the segments that may keep matters from becoming even worse. Analysts believe that global eCommerce will be 20% larger than it is today. The Petersen quote in the Forbes cover feature on him says a lot about how the industry views him:

Our industry thinks I’m a clown, which I don’t mind. I need to continue to convince them that I’m crazy so they don’t get their act together and compete with us.

The health of our economy and the future of eCommerce – as a whole – will depend on relieving the demand on the few shipping ports and international bridges that America over-relies on for inventory. Let’s hope that Petersen is right, shipping times and product costs will depend on Silicon Valley’s ability to begin disrupting a 3,000-year-old ocean freight industry.

作者：Web Smith | 编辑：Hilary Milnes，美术：Christina Williams