品牌:下一个关注点(微塑料)

零售业的整个细分市场都在滴答作响。在不久的将来,由于公众情绪的变化和日益严峻的挑战,未能适应的运动休闲公司将处于不利地位。今日家纺》解释道:

一项针对 527 名美国成年人的定量在线调查发现,49% 的人熟悉 "微塑料 "一词,这些成年人最有可能将塑料袋(76%)和来自保健及美容产品的微珠(61%)视为微塑料污染的制造者。略高于半数(52%)的人知道聚酯等合成材料制成的衣服会对微塑料污染问题产生影响。(更多信息)

到 2028 年,严重依赖微塑料的零售品牌将面临反弹和认可度下降的问题。服装业因使用从石油中提取的塑料纤维而臭名昭著。大多数服装(包括瑜伽裤、夹克等)中约 70% 的材料都含有尼龙、聚酯纤维和类似的不可生物降解纺织品。目前,美国环境保护署指出,这些纺织品中只有约 15%得到回收利用。

随着环保意识的增强和立法压力的加大,品牌在维持以廉价、不可生物降解材料为基础的商业模式方面可能会遇到挑战。正如变革市场基金会的乔治-哈丁-罗尔斯(George Harding-Rolls)所强调的,严重依赖合成纤维的超快时尚品牌将首当其冲,如果通过立法限制这类材料的使用,它们的商业模式可能会被淘汰。危险材料杂志》(2021 年 2 月)的一篇有趣文章指出:

随后,我们估计全球平均每周人类可能通过各种接触途径摄入 0.1-5 克微塑料。

像 Reformation 这样的公司已经在铺平道路,他们制定了大胆的目标,尽量减少合成材料的使用。他们与 Kintra Fibers 等初创公司合作,探索从玉米中提取生物可降解聚酯等替代品。然而,如何扩大这些创新的规模,以满足当前对合成纤维的需求,将是一个巨大的挑战。

5 月中旬,Lululemon 对澳大利亚初创公司 Samsara Eco 进行了少数股权投资,此举是对服装行业不断变化的可持续服装理念的一个重要回应。这项为期多年的承诺标志着 Lululemon 首次涉足回收利用领域,展示了利用酶将旧纺织品回收利用为新纺织品的转变。Lululemon 希望通过这种酶解工艺,将损坏或废弃衣物中的废旧尼龙和聚酯转化为新系列的材料。

我认为,这只是在更大的伤口上贴了一张创可贴。时尚品牌的传统回收方法包括机械回收和化学方法。然而,这些方法都有其缺点,从依赖原始塑料来保持质量,到分解聚合物所需的高能量,不一而足。相比之下,Samsara Eco 公司采用的酶解方法可以在碳中和、低热的环境中有效分解塑料。由于这种创新方法能够有效回收利用现有塑料,因此有可能减少对新塑料生产的需求。

在时尚界努力应对对微塑料的依赖之际,这种方法的意义不言而喻。根据《Vogue》杂志最近的一篇文章,我们约有三分之二的服装是由聚酯、尼龙、腈纶和氨纶等合成材料制成的。这些从化石燃料中提炼出来的材料不仅会向环境中释放微塑料,而且需要几个世纪的时间才能降解。

因此,具有先进技术特性的有机纺织品的兴起将引领未来的新趋势。

业界从原生聚酯向再生聚酯过渡的方向是正确的,各大品牌承诺到 2025 年采用再生聚酯。然而,这种聚酯主要来自塑料瓶,使回收过程从闭环系统变为线性系统,基本上是将这些材料在时装中使用后直接送往垃圾填埋场。时尚产业,尤其是运动休闲产业,正处于一个十字路口。随着消费者越来越意识到服装选择对环境的影响,他们要求更多可持续发展和环保的选择。

合成纤维的使用量持续上升。但是,到 2028 年,该行业对含有微塑料的合成纺织品的严重依赖将不得不大幅减少,甚至消除,以确保以目前的形式生存下去。这时,具有先进技术特性的有机纺织品将占据主导地位,成为未来的新趋势。

微塑料困境

正如《洛杉矶时报》所概述的,"超细纤维 "这个曾经是多功能清洁产品的代名词,如今却成了环境的噩梦。这些超细纤维主要由涤纶和腈纶等合成材料组成,在洗涤过程中脱落后,会进入我们的海洋、河流和湖泊。微塑料无处不在,甚至在我们的食物链和水源中都被检测到,这引起了令人担忧的健康问题。慢性炎症、癌症和不孕不育只是这些微小颗粒侵入人体系统后的一些潜在风险。

如果考虑到微纤维一旦进入环境,就几乎无法挽回,那么问题的严重性就更大了。

解决方案的出现:酶技术

随着微塑料问题的日益严重,领先的时尚品牌和初创企业开始探索解决这一危机的创新方案。Lululemon 与 Samsara Eco 的合作标志着这一历程的关键时刻。在这里,有机纺织品与技术的结合有望带来变革性的解决方案。

Lululemon 承诺使用 Samsara Eco 的酶驱动技术,这不仅体现了向循环时尚的转变,还强调了行业内对可持续解决方案日益增长的需求。这项技术可以有效地将使用过的尼龙和聚酯混合物分解成与新时装系列相匹配的形式。由于服装材料中令人震惊的 70% 都含有合成的石油衍生纤维,因此这种举措不仅值得称赞,而且势在必行。

为什么选择酶法解决方案? 机械回收等传统方法在使用寿命和效率方面存在局限性。它们还需要添加原始塑料,进一步加剧了微塑料问题。而化学方法则需要消耗大量能源。然而,酵素解决方案却能改变游戏规则。据 Samsara Eco 公司的保罗-莱利(Paul Riley)介绍,这种技术需要的热量较少,能有效分解塑料,使其与原生质量材料一样好。随之而来的碳足迹减少也是一大优势。

这种进步并非孤立存在。亚马逊(Amazon)、卡夫亨氏(KraftHeinz)和巴塔哥尼亚(Patagonia)等全球巨头与研究机构的合作正在快速推动这些基于酶的解决方案的开发。值得注意的是,京都技术研究所(Kyoto Institute of Technology)发现的堺Ideonella sakaiensis 201-F6细菌证明了正在取得的重大进展。

未来之路

像 Carbios 和 Protein Evolution 这样的初创企业与著名时尚品牌合作,将重新定义时尚的未来。通过倡导酶回收利用,它们证明了时尚产业确实可以与环境共生。

然而,尽管未来前景广阔,但过渡不会一蹴而就。它需要时间、投资和包括消费者在内的所有利益相关者的共同努力。正如《洛杉矶时报》的报道所指出的,拟议中的洗衣机设计变更包含了捕捉微纤维的过滤器,这展示了所需的整体方法。

随着消费者倡导更加环保、注重健康和可持续发展的时尚理念,时装业转向以有机纺织品为基础、辅以尖端技术的做法将不仅仅是一种趋势,而是一种必然。正在进行的合作、技术进步和投资凸显了时装业充满希望和可持续发展的未来。虽然酶法回收有望减少纺织品废弃物,但更广泛的时尚产业必须正视对微塑料的依赖。到 2028 年,一场巨变即将来临,重点应放在创新、可持续替代品和解决生产过剩的根本问题上。

在快速演变的市场环境中,不适应环境的零售品牌可能会被边缘化。

作者:Web Smith | 编辑:Hilary Milnes,美术:Alex Remy 和 Christina Williams 

Member Brief: Barstool’s Recovery Strategy

The sports media ecosystem jolted with news that Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy regained full ownership of the company for $1. Upon Penn Gaming earning that major deal with ESPN to create ESPN Bet, I imagine that meeting between Penn Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden and CEO Portnoy going something like this:

本会员简报专为以下人士设计 执行委员为了方便加入,您可以点击下面的链接,获取数百份报告、我们的 DTC 权力清单和其他工具,帮助您做出高水平的决策。

在此加入

备忘录DTC 的好消息

The list of pending consumer IPOs is extensive. They include: Fabletics, Fanatics, Flipkart, Hungryroot, Impossible Foods, Liquid Death, Lovevery, Rokt, Saks.com, Shein, Skims, Klaviyo, and Instacart. Birkenstock, a longstanding retailer that has seen DTC success, is said to be pursuing an initial public offering as soon as September thanks to a reported 340% increase in demand, according to 3DLook.ai‘s analysts.

The impending 2023 IPOs of the above retailers as well as technology companies including Klaviyo and Instacart, plus with the continued growth of retail media, signal increasing odds of liquidity events for direct-to-consumer brands, who may take part in a potentially exciting fourth quarter wave of IPO filings. According to Will Braeutigam, US capital markets transactions leader at Deloitte:

Expectations for active Q4 public listings are on the rise and companies have started to re-engage around the IPO process.

Klaviyo, the leading independent eCommerce marketing software provider, has recently turned profitable, a crucial milestone ahead of its IPO. However, it faces challenges such as intensifying competition, slowing revenue growth, and a high dependence on eCommerce clients. Similarly, Instacart, the online grocery delivery service, has had a decent bottom line ahead of its IPO, with advertising accounting for more than a quarter of its annual revenue. However, it faces challenges such as slowing gross transaction volume growth and increasing competition. The Information explained it this way:

Klaviyo’s backers also face the reality that valuations have fallen sharply since 2021, when the company was valued privately at more than $9 billion. One publicly traded comparison is HubSpot, which is trading at around 12.8 times its last year’s sales, though it offers a broader range of tools than Klaviyo. Another marketing software firm that could be more in line with Klaviyo’s business is Braze, which is trading at around 9.4  times last year’s sales. An average of those two, applied to Klaviyo’s $472.7 million in 2022 revenue, implies an enterprise value for Klaviyo of only $5.3 billion.

Instacart tells a similar tale, according to Insider:

Given Fidelity currently values its Instacart Series I shares at $45.10 each — the same value as its Series H shares — the startup’s share value has been slashed by nearly 64% in the last 30 months, largely during the first part of last year, and remains near record lows.

These IPOs are significant barometers for several reasons beyond the typical: employee liquidity, corporate influx of capital, and a valuation benchmark. The online retail industry is in dire need of more successful exits. The shadow of 2021’s boom and IPO bust looms over the industry, but recent successes like Oddity’s IPO and current $2.5 billion market capitalization are positive signals. In 2022, Oddity, who owns makeup brand Il Makiage, climbed from a 2021 tally of $110.6 million in net revenue to $324 million the following year. LVMH’s private equity arm, L Catterton, earned a substantial return.

There is a surprising parallel between Oddity’s success and the potential of Instacart and Klaviyo to find post-exit success: each of the three companies is highly dependent on its own platform’s retail data. Instacart and Klaviyo have used millions of consumer data points to its collective advantage, Instacart more directly with its burgeoning retail media operation.

Despite the slashed share prices of Instacart and Klaviyo, it has not become the prevailing narrative for either company. And there are positive indicators in addition to Klaviyo and Instacart’s potential promise. The continued general growth of retail media is a key signal for DTC brands; we’ve extensively covered retail media’s promise here:

The advertising category, which includes advertising on eCommerce platforms, social media, and other online channels, has been growing rapidly as consumers increasingly shop online. This provides an opportunity for DTC brands to reach their target audience more efficiently and effectively. The WSJ notes (ironically) that Instacart “might be too reliant on ads.” I disagree; as long as sales volume continues to grow, retail media’s growth will be a multiplier for Instacart. And if retail media continues to become a reliable revenue generator for DTC brands, it may become the rising tide needed by DTCs proverbial fleet of ships.

After a soft June where revenues were flat compared to last year (despite rising prices), the Belardi Wong survey of DTC sales, cited in the header image, the retail category showed a surprising +4 percent YOY. The breakdown by category looked like this:

  • Apparel: 10% YOY
  • Shoes and Accessories: 8% YOY
  • Home decor: -5% YOY

The Big Takeaways

The upcoming 2023 IPOs of Klaviyo and Instacart, along with the continued growth of retail media, indicate increasing odds of liquidity events for DTC brands. Here’s why:

  • Profitability of Klaviyo: Klaviyo turning profitable in the first half of 2023 signals a strong financial position likely to attract investors during its IPO. This is a positive sign for the DTC brands using Klaviyo’s services as it indicates the company’s ability to provide sustainable and potentially more innovative services in the future.
  • Increased value of customer data: The surge in eCommerce growth and Apple’s privacy changes have made customer data more valuable to merchants. This has led to increased funding for marketing startups like Klaviyo and Attentive, indicating a strong demand for their services. DTC brands, which rely heavily on online sales and marketing, stand to benefit from enhanced tools and services provided by these companies.
  • Intensified competition: The increasing overlap of features among startups and the entry of big players like Shopify and Amazon have intensified competition in the marketing tools space. This is likely to lead to the development of more innovative and cost-effective tools for online merchants, benefiting DTC brands.
  • Diversification of client base: Klaviyo’s efforts to diversify its client base beyond eCommerce and reduce dependence on Shopify clients indicates its intention to expand and strengthen its market position. This could lead to the development of more tailored services for different industries, benefiting a wider range of DTC brands.
  • Valuation challenges: The lower-than-expected valuation of Klaviyo at its IPO could signal challenges for other companies in the space and lead to a reassessment of valuations. This could result in more realistic valuations for DTC brands, making them more attractive investment opportunities for investors.
  • Growth of retail media: The continued growth of retail media signals an increasing shift of advertising dollars towards online retail platforms. This presents an opportunity for DTC brands to access a larger audience and potentially achieve higher sales. The increased advertising revenue for online retail platforms could also lead to more investments in enhancing their services, benefiting DTC brands.
  • Interest of investors in Klaviyo’s IPO: The intense interest of investors in Klaviyo’s IPO indicates the attractiveness of the online marketing tools space. A successful IPO of Klaviyo could lead to increased investor interest in other companies in the space and potentially more liquidity events for DTC brands.

The road to liquidity events for DTC brands is not without challenges. The intense competition in the eCommerce space means that companies need to continuously innovate and invest in growth to stay ahead. Moreover, the high valuations of many DTC brands mean that they need to meet high expectations of growth and profitability to justify their valuations.

The points raised above could signal increasing odds of liquidity events for DTC brands. However, DTC brands need to navigate challenges such as intense competition, high expectations of growth and profitability, and the need to continuously innovate and invest in growth.

By Web Smith | Editor: Hilary Milnes with art by Christina Williams and Alex Remy