Memo: The Gruen Transfer

A new note. His ideas have become popular once again, as indoor-outdoor malls, multi-use retail communities, and experiential retail have become top of mind.

The Gruen Transfer is the generalized desire to shop. It’s the effect of feeling lost in a mall, amplifying the likelihood of impulse purchase. In the macro, the concept is synonymous with a consumer’s desire to spend time in a mall or walk a street of storefronts. It’s shopping for the sake of shopping. Except, Gruen didn’t want it this way at all.

This mind-trick, this consumerism for consumerism’s sake, was the brain child of an architect named Victor Gruen. He’s the one who turned American day-to-day life into something that could be parodied in a zombie film. The entire trick bears his name, after all. [Gizmodo, 2013]

The original mall concept that bears his name is a perversion of what he’d really intended. What got in the way? American sociology. Gruen has reentered the American conscious after decades of being forgotten by everyone outside of architectural pockets. This 2019 essay explained how our own cultural woes contributed to the over-retail of American and the zombie-fication of retail.

While largely ignored, what you will read below remains my favorite work at 2PM. The retail industrial complex’s decision to do away with Gruen’s original vision and multiply the concept of indoor acreage of retail haunts the American retail industry today. You will be able to better infer as to why that decision was made below.

This is where retail meets sociology, economics, and American politics.

Remember this year: 1954. A Jewish immigrant from occupied-Austria was nearly 60 years ahead of his time. Victor Gruen made his name as the inventor of “the Gruen effect“, a method of storefront design that influenced casual bystanders to enter stores. His success as a designer caught the eye of Midwestern commercial developers. He later became the father of the American shopping mall. But his vision wasn’t the mall that we grew up with. It was supposed to be more.

2019年，大多數蓬勃發展的購物中心現在看起來像俄亥俄州的伊斯頓鎮中心，這是萊斯·韋克斯納的有限品牌和喬治敦公司之間的房地產合作。它與其說是購物中心，不如說是一個自成一體的小鎮，有生活、餐飲、雜貨店、酒店和交通便利。伊斯頓於1999年開業，目前仍是位於哥倫布東北部現有郊區的成功且不斷發展的開發區。但即使是 在 搖搖欲墜的地面上。此資訊來自 米奇諾倫零售：

Web Smith on Twitter: “Here is a better visualization of your mall. 21% of these companies are headquartered in a Columbus, Ohio suburb. pic.twitter.com/3PkcAMbdU2 / Twitter”

這裡是一個更好的可視化您的商場。其中21%的公司總部設在俄亥俄州哥倫布市郊區。pic.twitter.com/3PkcAMbdU2

Just a few miles from Easton Town Center, 21% of the above retailers are headquartered in and around the suburb of New Albany. The “town that Wexner built” is idyllic. It’s a derivative of what Gruen envisioned in the 1940s. The city itself is stable, walkable, and growing. Local officials have attracted the likes of Facebook, Google, and Amazon as somewhat of a hedge against the area’s retail employment base. From Bloomberg’s recent feature:

矽谷的巨頭們將加入韋克斯納的一些現任和前任品牌：亞伯克龍比-惠譽和正義都總部設在那裡，巴斯和身體工程在公園裡有一個巨大的辦公室。

吸引矽谷到新奧爾巴尼是一個賭注，象徵著一個更大的趨勢。這些矽谷巨頭與橫跨我國廣大郊區的幹牆、鋼樑和混凝土一樣，都是商業生態系統的一部分。但它並不是當今零售業困境的唯一罪魁禍首。簡言之，沒有足夠的需求（購物者）來滿足過剩的供應（商店）。零售房地產正在永久收縮。CNBC最近的一篇頭條新聞說，"自大蕭條以來，服裝零售收入並沒有那麼糟糕。•1]作為所有房地產開發的基石，儘管經濟絕對繁榮，但收益仍處於衰退水準。

市場應該能夠容忍 10% 的點擊率

2019年第一季度，美國的GDP增長了3.1%。BEA分析師指出，美國經濟價值為20萬億美元，高於2008年大衰退期間的15萬億美元。實際上，美國經濟狀況良好。但零售並不一定反映這種樂觀情緒。最後一個封閉式購物中心建於2006年[2]。零售商在2017年關閉了1.02億平方英尺的零售空間，隨後零售關閉額創下了歷史新高。2018年，品牌又關閉了1.55億平方英尺。

簡言之，沒有足夠的需求（購物者）來滿足過剩的供應（商店）。

There were 5,854 store closures in 2018. Now in 2019, we have already surpassed the previous year’s total: 8,000+ retailers have already closed their doors. By April of 2019, alone, there were 5,846. Analysts at UBS suggest that the trend is only gaining velocity. The firm expects store closures to reach a pace of 10,000 per year, hitting 75,000 closures by 2026.

Consider this parallel. In 1995, the New York government began auctioning new taxi medallions, marketing them to potential drivers as long-term investments. Though the first medallion sold for $10, decades before, many of the medallions sold for $500,000 to $1 million. Just as the arrival of eCommerce blunted the economic viability of the mall, Uber and Lyft’s initial 10% hit on medallion prices sent the marketability of the asset into a 60-80% free fall. Mall retail is experiencing the same effect. One that will likely accelerate with additional tariffs.

紐約市的 計程車獎章價格 經歷了課外自由市場力量的力量。政府揮動看不見的手時計算錯誤。人們也可以對零售業說同樣的話。與紐約的計程車市場以及優步和Lyft的影響一樣，電子商務並不是導致實體零售價值下降的唯一變數。政府的政策確實做到了。

哪裡出了問題

The mall began in the American midwest. Victor Gruen designed the first enclosed shopping center in Edina, Minnesota. At 1.2 million square feet, the Southdale center was designed to challenge automobile-dependency. It was to be a sustainable, common space for the suburb of 15,000. In recent years – with increased competition for e-tailers and more modern malls, the development suffered through store closures, vacancy rates, and a fluctuating real estate market in the surrounding areas. Anchored by Macy’s, it remains viable for now. But it’s a relic of an incomplete vision. The mall was supposed to be more than a shopping center; Gruen’s vision was grander. From Business Insider:

格魯恩協會的創始人，格魯恩是購物中心的建築師。如果你能想像，他不屑於他一生工作的遺產。他為市中心風格的零售中心（靈感來自維也納環城街）的靈感和未來主義理想主義，被他無法想像的社會經濟動蕩所掩蓋。

1944 – 1956

在第二次世界大戰期間，羅斯福總統宣稱消費主義作為一種愛國主義形式的重要性。他要求普通美國人通過預測「美國的生活方式」來盡自己的一分。這意味著購買汽車、電視機、洗衣機和新衣服——在國家危難時期推動我們的經濟向前發展。戰後，這成為美國人生活的核心。此外，美國政府特別呼籲婦女信念，即消費既是一種民事義務，也是一種私人享受形式。以這種文化定義轉變為背景，格魯恩計劃在美國不斷增長的郊區建造他的城市式空間。當軍隊回國時，鎮中心式的購物中心應該為為美國服務的男女服務。

維克多·格魯恩希望我們的郊區像城市空間。他幾乎有他的方式。從這份檔案報紙文章的計劃應該看起來現代今天的標準：當今許多頂級商場都保持著類似的內外美學，具有宜居性和可步行性。但是要理解我們為什麼過度商場化，你必須瞭解1944-1956年。美國購物中心誕生於戰後資本主義、冷戰造恐和種族關係的交匯處。

1944: The Service Readjustment Act (SRA) succeeded the G.I. bill. With over 16 million middle-class GIs returning from WWII, the law was designed to stimulate a postwar economy by offering a state credit guarantee to veterans to purchase homes without a down payment. Over 5 million veterans bought homes through this program.

1951： 聯邦民防局的成立。1950年至1951年間，空中轟炸演習在達拉斯、費城、芝加哥、底特律、洛杉磯和紐約等城市引發了恐懼和郊區化。由於擔心外國襲擊會摧毀美國城市，中產階級和富裕的公民開始遷移到郊區。

底特律在許多方面是未來發展的環境。當時製造業被認為是「經濟天堂」，主要集中於這一領域。因此，它被強調為核攻擊的潛在目標。作為回應，該市推行激進的權力下放，激勵底特律繁榮的市民開始定居在郊區的"安全"區。通往這些郊區專案的道路和街道是工人階級、少數民族地區劃出的。

1953: According to Tom Lewis’ “Divided Highways. Building the Interstate Highways, Transforming American Life,” a certain boom occurred in 1953 that enabled what happened next. Nearly 145,000 Americans installed new telephones, over 600,000 purchased a new television. But most importantly, 500,000 American families bought a new car.

1954： 在 布朗訴教育委員會一事 被裁決后，美國最高法院廢除了學校的種族隔離制度。這意味著全國各地的城市地區被一些人描述為不適宜住。在中西部，富裕家庭和政府資助的退伍軍人搬到郊區，讓孩子避開某些學校。這些社區往往被限製為安全邊界。在某些情況下，合併允許郊區組建市政府，對該地區的規章制度進行規範，這些規章制度是書面的，也是不成文的。大量人口外流到美國郊區，與許多大都市郊區的建築熱潮相對應。

Shortly after this Supreme Court decision, Eisenhower enacted the “Accelerated Depreciation” (AD) program. This allowed the owners of commercial real estate developments to deduct building costs from their tax burdens. This new form of tax deduction enabled builders to extract wealth from their developments 10x faster than the year before. Thomas Hanchett’s “U.S. Tax Policy and the Shopping-Center Boom of the 1950s and 1960s” notes that there was one regional mall in 1953. No less than 25 were approved immediately after this decision. America grew from one mall to 25 in one year.

1956： 艾森豪威爾政府推進了 《聯邦公路法》，加快了主要公路和高速公路的建設。就像通往中產階級郊區的命脈一樣，高速公路將居民與市中心連接起來。對於富人來說，生活在城市地區已經沒有必要了。摘自 《經濟學季刊 》（第122卷，第2卷）：1950年至1990年間，美國城市中心的總人口下降了近17%，而郊區的人口增長了72%。

結果

Victor Gruen never quite accomplished his vision for Minnesota’s Southdale or Detroit’s first mall: Northland. With malls as a new wealth vehicle for well-heeled developers, shopping centers no longer needed to be well thought-out: no green spaces, or hotels, or schools, or condominiums were needed to help each shopping center thrive. Multi-use developments died – for a time – with 1954’s legislation. This was a turbulent time in America that Gruen couldn’t have possibly accounted for. His idea of imparting the wisdom’s of Vienna’s Ringstrasse gave way to massive buildings of aimless use, often competing with another massive building just five to seven miles away. This, during the century’s automotive boom, a phenomenon that he foresaw as a detriment to society.

1955年至1975年間，購物中心的發展迅速加快。雖然，發展不再與需求挂鉤。許多資產被建造成可提取的零售資產，但是為了獲得巨額利潤而翻轉的。這意味著發展不再與人口增長挂鉤。摘自瑪律科姆·格拉德威爾的《商業年鑒》：

例如，紐約的象牙蘭在1950年至1970年間幾乎沒有增長。然而在這二十年裡，象牙蘭獲得了六個新的購物廣場，包括四十萬平方英尺的封閉的象牙蘭維爾購物中心。在同一20年間，斯克蘭頓地區實際上減少了7.3萬人，同時獲得了31個購物中心，包括3個封閉的購物中心。

如今，美國每個小郊區都存在多個購物中心和購物中心，這些購物中心的設計和建造沒有期望，無法實現可持續的需求。與此同時，隨著GDP的增長，美國正加速進入城市化進程。直接到消費者的品牌正在發展，電子商務已經增長到零售額的近18%，城市城鎮中心正在湧現——每個城市都從Gruen的最初願景中汲取了線索。在最近與 CNBC 的勞倫·托馬斯的談話中，零售指標創始人肯·帕金斯說：

這些都是以商場為基礎的零售商遇到交通問題。

湯瑪斯表示，服裝商場的零售利潤處於衰退水準。截至6月，馬塞裡奇、西蒙地產、金科、華盛頓Prime集團和陶布曼地產的股價均處於5年來的最低點。這與上面提到的許多數據點是一脈的。沒有足夠的可行的挑戰者品牌 （DTC） 來填補預計到 2026 年 67，000 多家門店的關閉。因此，很難確定一個建立在戰後消費主義、郊區化和加速貶值基礎上的美國零售帝國是否會重回昔日的輝煌。但是，當我們想知道「零售啟示」是如何發生的，看看1954年。

We moved tens of millions of Americans to empty parcels of land with cars and more stores, per capita, than any place on earth. And we told ourselves that the bubble would never pop. The Gruen Transfer is a consumer psychological concept but the implications of his work will be remembered as a reflection of our own national psychology – the good, great, and the bad parts of it.

Research and Report by Web Smith | Edited by Hilary Milnes with art by Alex Remy | About 2PM